Argue with vatniks over trains

[Doctor Love]

Latest babble from ISW:

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What's interesting isn't the "analysis", but how the talking points have changed. If you read between the lines, you can spot that:

>Russian army is larger and more combat experienced than pre-2022.
>Sanctions are failing
>Russian military industry is adapting and producing new equipment
>Russia has advanced air defense systems that are threat to NATO
>Suggests helping Ukraine regain all/most of it's territory (What happened to full liberation of Ukraine?)
>"Whether Ukraine does or does not ultimately join the alliance" (Even NATO membership is no longer a cornerstone)

I thought Russian economy was on the brink of collapse, had the second strongest army in Europe, 430k casualties and 5000 tank losses and were running out of ammo?

What I found most crazy to think about - if Ukraine surrenders, that would put Russia in direct control of all of Ukraine's railways and roads.

Although these are disused, if Russia were to put thousands of soldiers onto trains and just... point them on the (mostly empty) railway until they're far into Europe, within 24 hours they could take pretty much every capital city in the Eastern bloc, and Germany. With ten trains, Russia could just... dump soldiers directly into each country's political center and completely avoid actually fighting.

While the whole conventional war shit would devolve into nuclear, in theory - but when faced with that sheer reality, do you think someone like Scholz is going to accept America or the UK dropping nukes all over Europe to "stop da russians" - and conventional forces would cripple their own logistical networks if they reacted too harshly. Add in confusion and "why is there a train travelling really fast, with all of its lights off, at 1am? I should defer this one to the commander..."

They have so many thousands of soldiers built up in Ukraine that they could turn Kiev into a launchpad.

 

[kuuu]

@Doctor Love if I remember correctly, yuropean railway tracks have different gauge than ex-soviet states, so that's not gonna work.

 

[Doctor Love]

@Doctor Love if I remember correctly, yuropean railway tracks have different gauge than ex-soviet states, so that's not gonna work.

In general, yeah, but they have upgraded most of the EU to the same as Western EU - and most recently, Lviv and Western Ukraine "signed" to change to the European one, too.

And like I said, once they cross into the EU proper, what is gonna happen? Airstrikes? Full mobilisation of the entire EU in the ~6 hours it would take for them to bring "surrender now" documents to Berlin?

What would we even be able to do in that scenario?

Let's say Russia wanted to really "split" the world in two. America and the UK on one side, and the EU on the other. The Russians have the policy, and likely true, belief that countries will not launch nukes unless they themselves are at risk.

What would the French do, the only nuclear power on the continent and most powerful EU military, if Germany was being held hostage? Chances are they'd say "Welp, America and the Rosboef are not here, I don't want to deal with ze fallout of zis. Honhonhon" and sign some kind of armistice.

It sounds absolutely crazy, but to be honest, Russia is practically unopposed on the continent, now. They have a mobilised force of half a million, and are fully aware that most of the EU uses proxy governments which have no "loyalty" from their people. I don't think anyone would willingly join up to defend Rishi Sunak's government, especially with the idea that Pakis will be chilling in their homes while white Brits die to protect them.

France, similarly - I don't think Jean-Claude would lay down his life so that "le niggeurs" can live in France.

 

[Yak-130 Mitten]

In general, yeah, but they have upgraded most of the EU to the same as Western EU - and most recently, Lviv and Western Ukraine "signed" to change to the European one, too.

And like I said, once they cross into the EU proper, what is gonna happen? Airstrikes? Full mobilisation of the entire EU in the ~6 hours it would take for them to bring "surrender now" documents to Berlin?

What would we even be able to do in that scenario?

Let's say Russia wanted to really "split" the world in two. America and the UK on one side, and the EU on the other. The Russians have the policy, and likely true, belief that countries will not launch nukes unless they themselves are at risk.

What would the French do, the only nuclear power on the continent and most powerful EU military, if Germany was being held hostage? Chances are they'd say "Welp, America and the Rosboef are not here, I don't want to deal with ze fallout of zis. Honhonhon" and sign some kind of armistice.

It sounds absolutely crazy, but to be honest, Russia is practically unopposed on the continent, now. They have a mobilised force of half a million, and are fully aware that most of the EU uses proxy governments which have no "loyalty" from their people. I don't think anyone would willingly join up to defend Rishi Sunak's government, especially with the idea that Pakis will be chilling in their homes while white Brits die to protect them.

France, similarly - I don't think Jean-Claude would lay down his life so that "le niggeurs" can live in France.

I logged in for first time in months just to tell you how fucking retarded you are. Lets just drive trains into europe! Our trains have a completely different gauge by design, but lets do it!

Oh, switches? Who cares!
Emergency derailment points? They dont exist!
Railyards? We will fly over them!
Our locomotives use different power frequencies? With help of friendship we can get over this!

If you dont know anything of the topic, stay the fuck away from it, you retarded nigger.

 

[Male Idiot]

I don't think Russia could mount a Blitz to Berlin. Even without the track issue, you would be doing the Kiev charge all over again, leaving your little vodkas hanging and overextended way, way far from resupply and cut off. The CIA would nut itself at such a fat target.

The nafos also don't get this, this is why they are sure the US army could easily just teleport in and blunt any russian attack.

The more you go into hostile territory, the more fucked you are when it comes to supplying your troops and holding said territory. It isn't as bad as the US that has to ferry stuff across the ocean, but its not good for blitzing Berlin with satellite coverage enough to acramble jets and just blow up the railways before the blitz gets there.

 

[Doctor Love]

@Yak-130 Mitten https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03...g-warsaw-and-lviv-to-be-built-by-end-of-2023/

Also, they have another line from Ukraine to Romania.

And okay, step 1) train stopped because apparently there's a central "emergency button" which just explodes all the railway lines in the entire EU.

Now you have hundreds, of if not thousands, of Russian soldiers deep inside EU territory. Do you now carpet bomb some sleepy Hungarian town because Biden says so?

And if you fail at Step 1, you have effectively crippled your own railway line without achieving the one goal.

I don't think Russia could mount a Blitz to Berlin. Even without the track issue, you would be doing the Kiev charge all over again, leaving your little vodkas hanging and overextended way, way far from resupply and cut off. The CIA would nut itself at such a fat target.

The nafos also don't get this, this is why they are sure the US army could easily just teleport in and blunt any russian attack.

The more you go into hostile territory, the more fucked you are when it comes to supplying your troops and holding said territory. It isn't as bad as the US that has to ferry stuff across the ocean, but its not good for blitzing Berlin with satellite coverage enough to acramble jets and just blow up the railways before the blitz gets there.

That's the thing, Russia is already IN hostile territory. Supplies would be waiting for them, undefended, in Aldi and local fuel depots. Unless the store clerks pull off some John Wick shit, outside of armaments, pretty much anything can be locally provided.

The only real risk would be if the Eastern countries have, as others have implied, laid a literal trap for them and are planning on launching air strikes on their own towns and cities. Once the bulk of the countryside is crossed (which they could have SAM cover for), what's gonna happen? Every second would count, and assuming a train West from Lviv, by the time anybody notices, figures out a plan, figures out where to launch a strike, scrambles the appropriate jets, travels to the target zone - and assuming they score a direct hit and completely disable the railway line - how far inside the EU would this be, by that point?

Russian invasion would not look like a "spearhead" formation if they have access to the existing EU infrastructure. And so long as everyone in the EU panics, trying to figure out whose job it is and are unwilling to make hard decisions (not one of them has thought about sinking migrant boats cause racism) then Russia could just... invade and take over without anyone firing a single shot. Like a coup d'etat.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Let's say Russia wanted to really "split" the world in two

And okay, step 1)

I'd read this if it was fiction ngl

 

[Doctor Love]

I'd read this if it was fiction ngl

There's a movie like it - "Tomorrow, when the war began"

It shows a much more realistic situation - China invades Australia via container ships. By the time anyone notices, the police stations are overrun and it becomes "Aussie Red Dawn"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjCxqftHSc4

Unlike Red Dawn, which is American-focused, it has a very real situation - where the alliances and "mutual defence" pacts don't mean shit if you're signing up for deaths by the million. They look good on paper, but Europe has had two world wars over similar "power blocs" and politicians deciding that it's not worth the cost is a very real possibility.


The entire movie is on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPaHpyQndqI

The first twenty minutes are like "goofy teen movie" then, skip to 22:50 when the girl comes home, finds her family gone and her pet collie dead in the garden.

 

[Male Idiot]

Troops need more than food, you know.

I don't think Aldi would have ammo for them. Even if we say all russian tanks run fine on regular car fuel.

First, they would have to amass enough troops to do this, which would be hard. Same reason I think the counteroinkfensyiv failed, both sides got satellites and spy planes.

Especially if you want tanks alongside and not just footsoldiers hoping they can carjack enough BMWs to frighten Merkel 2.0.

And no, railways can be bombed between towns. Even if lets say Orbán is paid off to simply look the other way, which lets be real Putin could easily do, scrambling jets is 20 minutes. Than blow up a good 20 meters of rail in Austria.

Your troops would also be encircled as you would need to protect said railway from Jurgen dynamiting it to keep the supplies flowing.

They tried this in Kiev and failed.

And lol at Scholz having a say, the deep state would nuke Berlin in a heartbeat. It was a cold war era plan to literally nuke the Warsaw pact if Stalin felt like going to Paris.

This worked in WW2 as you didn't have satellites. You could blindside the enemy unless they managed to have an air patrol in the area by sheer CWC luck of "I just won" . You could even have the Luftwaffe take out phone lines. Even than the germans did not use the railway but tanks.

Plus, Putin got the eu by the balls in the energy sector already. Why would he do this nuke risky gambit, even if against all odds it worked? All he has to do is wait for the EU industry to finish dying.

 

[Scipio Neomericanus]

Supplies would be waiting for them, undefended, in Aldi and local fuel depots. Unless the store clerks pull off some John Wick shit, outside of armaments, pretty much anything can be locally provided.

My brother, I want you to realize how hilariously retarded this sounds.
This would not happen because Russia would not risk triggering Article 5 over a VDV regiment speeding a train into Berlin to rob the local Aldi of all of its Braunschweiger sausage and hold Olaf hostage for some remote uhhhh...... benefit?

The payoff from the gamble you're suggesting is extremely remote and it represents an extreme escalation that can lead to extreme consequences. So why even consider it?

 

[kuuu]

This is so tiresome.
Somebody sell me on why military invasion of yurop would even be worthwhile.

 

[Doctor Love]

My brother, I want you to realize how hilariously retarded this sounds.
This would not happen because Russia would not risk triggering Article 5 over a VDV regiment speeding a train into Berlin to rob the local Aldi of all of its Braunschweiger sausage and hold Olaf hostage for some remote uhhhh...... benefit?
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The payoff from the gamble you're suggesting is extremely remote and it represents an extreme escalation that can lead to extreme consequences. So why even consider it?

Are you fr?

This is so tiresome.
Somebody sell me on why military invasion of yurop would even be worthwhile.

Fuck knows, I have no idea why Ukraine would have been worthwhile but Russia has chewed its way through pretty much every weapon on the entire continent. Ukraine isn't the only one which is exhausted from war.

But if the entire security of Europe now depends on "Well, I'm sure the Russians will be nice about it, and forget that we've been supplying their enemies..." then I am not at all confident in it.

 

[kuuu]

I have no idea why Ukraine would have been worthwhile

You clearly haven't been paying attention then. And I'm not gonna be the one to chew it for you for the umpteenth time, sorry.

---

I believe it was exercise grenades because 3 fragmentation grenades exploding in a room like this everybody would be dead just now. The only victim can have been killed by shrapnels from the fournitures blasted by the explosions.

Reportedly RGD-5 was used.

 

[Sister Miriam Godwinson]

This is so tiresome.
Somebody sell me on why military invasion of yurop would even be worthwhile.

Spoiler: Click here to reveal the answer

 

[Doctor Love]

You clearly haven't been paying attention then. And I'm not gonna be the one to chew it for you for the umpteenth time, sorry.

Okay, so, explain to me how Ukraine is worth half a million Russian soldiers, but the rest of Europe combined is not?

 

[Scipio Neomericanus]

Are you fr?

Your hypothetical is a waste of time because it presupposes success. The chance of it succeeding would be so low that the Russian military would not consider this plan for more than a second. Your hypothetical also presupposes a guaranteed outcome. I don't think Yuros in general would be happy at and supportive of Russian soldiers thunder running into European capitals and living off the land.

The time it would take to physically prepare this operation and physically execute it would almost certainly result in discovery. It completely fails if you don't get the troops into the European capitals. What happens when the train gets stopped in the countryside, or in a minor city? What happens when the destination is surrounded by law enforcement and/or the military and you either have to force a shootout with the authorities or surrender? What would the consequences of that be?

It's straight up retarded, dude.

 

[kuuu]

how Ukraine is worth half a million Russian soldiers

There is a bajillion reasons for this conflict with both officially stated and unofficially deducted reasons.
Lurk more.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Fuck knows, I have no idea why Ukraine would have been worthwhile

It is the base from which USA/NATO destabilizes Russia, breaks it up into smaller, more easily conquered territory and exploits its peoples/vast resources while also having a military presence on China's border.

This is not speculation, its been stated outright by the US neocons who have the current administration in thrall. Occam's razor and all that.

 

[Doctor Love]

Your hypothetical is a waste of time because it presupposes success.

Nigger you're a fucking goldmine of cringe quotes.

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There is a bajillion reasons for this conflict with both officially stated and unofficially deducted reasons.
Lurk more.

Ukraine is not worth 5x as much, to Russia, as the rest of Europe combined. We have been sending, collectively, colossal amounts of weapons to kill Russians. Our politicians have been screaming about killing Russians for two years. With Ukraine falling, there isn't some magical barrier - the motive is there, and the weapons are there.

 

[Battlecruiser3000ad]

Funny use of trains aside, the answer lies in drafting circus performers and invading using unassuming personal vehicles. They won't know what hit them once an entire company rolls out from a Renault Clio in the Aldi parking lot.