CapricornusRex
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Feb 4, 2020
tl;dr answer - I think that's right, there's no way that anyone touches. It's right up there with records like Wayne Gretzky's all-time points record or Cal Ripken Jr.'s iron man streak.
When you consider that Nolan Ryan ended with 5714 strikeouts over parts of 27 seasons and pitched until he was 46, there are just way too many things that would need to go right for someone looking to top it. The only way that someone I think could do it is if:
- they came up as a phenom around Opening Day as a 20 year old
- pitched 20 seasons with a virtual clean bill of healthand elite performance
- averaged just a little over 285 strikeouts per season
- ideally plays their whole career in the NL and pray that they never adopt the DH
- play for a team who will let them stay late into games and don't treat analytic data as the Bible
- pray that they don't reduce the season at all which might cost the pitcher a start per year
- "ideally" play for teams who rarely go to the playoffs or don't go deep (Ryan only pitched 58.2 playoff innings; Scherzer for instance will likely already double that mark this October)
I think that 3000 will remain the vanity goal from here on out with perhaps a true phenom shooting for 4000. Of the three pitchers who've reached that latter number, all pitched parts of at least 22 seasons or more, and three of the four made their debut before reaching their 22nd birthday (the exception being Randy Johnson who made his five days after turning 25.)
Scherzer by the way is now just 10 strikeouts away from tying the injured Justin Verlander for #18 on the all-time list. The others to watch in the next few seasons are soon to be 38 year-old Zack Greinke (2799) and Clayton Kershaw (2663) who will be 34 before Spring Training next year. After that, it's basically a 32 year-old Chris Sale sitting at 2037 (currently tied with David Price who won't do it) so even that is a bit of a stretch, but not totally impossible either.
No one will reach 300 wins again either. The Hall of Fame will soon become the hall of very good.