Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

[TerminalTryHard]

Sitting at -15% Jesus what a blood bath.

 

[Netizennameless]

I don't have the same level of pessimism @Aqua Panda

Age may be a factor but there is too much opportunity out there right now to be doomer. The stupid and fearful are about to take a bath, but volatility just means money once you get in line with the pattern.
I've been writing a futures contract trading bot, and results have been stellar lately.

 

[Audit]

The SP500 is down 10% from its all time high. We're below the worst case predictions the big banks were making for the end of 2022. If you didn't sell back at the peak, my opinion is that it would not be a good idea to sell now. The market could dip further down, but you'd open yourself to a lot of risk by selling off now. It might be a good time to buy in though if you think the market will reach the "ideal" condition of growing 10% through 2022. I guess the only truly wrong thing to do now is make a rash decision to sell off your assets and then wait way too long to look for the bottom of the dip and end up short changing yourself. Well, that and dumping all of your money into super rare monkey NFTs.

 

[Spasticus Autisticus]

If this is how the market is going to react just based on a rumor of Fed tightening, imagine what it will look like if the tightening actually happens. I say "if", because I don't think it will. We can't Paul Volcker our way out this time like it's the 80s. Our last chance was in 2009 and everyone decided that the Magic Negro's legacy was more important than the future of US hegemony. The asset bubble has grown so large that it now encompasses the entire world, and to pop it now will inevitably lead to major instability that will spill over beyond the financial realm. Pretty soon the Fed will step in and announce that money printer does indeed go brrr and number does indeed go up. The only other choice will make the Great Depression look like the 90s.

 

[mindlessobserver]

The SP500 is down 10% from its all time high. We're below the worst case predictions the big banks were making for the end of 2022. If you didn't sell back at the peak, my opinion is that it would not be a good idea to sell now. The market could dip further down, but you'd open yourself to a lot of risk by selling off now. It might be a good time to buy in though if you think the market will reach the "ideal" condition of growing 10% through 2022. I guess the only truly wrong thing to do now is make a rash decision to sell off your assets and then wait way too long to look for the bottom of the dip and end up short changing yourself. Well, that and dumping all of your money into super rare monkey NFTs.

This is an incredibly hostile environment. I have no doubt there are huge bargains out there right now. But it will be very, very hard to pick them. And things are going to get worse before they get better. Ignore /biz/. If you are buying ANY Cryptos right now you are a fool. Cryptos are dumping because the developing world is dumping. What is happening in China, India and Turkey hasn't fully caught up to the USA and Europe yet, but it will. And when that happens the Cryptos will dump again. There is a possibility of a full reset to the 2018 level.

What needs to be stated is the Federal Reserve and Western Governments more generally have no more ammunition. They fired all their guns to keep the economy up during COVID. There is nothing more they can do, they cannot backstop this correction to prevent it escalating to a full blown panic.

At best they can delay the inevitable long enough to allow their buddies to get out. Do not be fooled by any further rallies. Cash is king right now. Or else gold and silver.

 

[Audit]

This is an incredibly hostile environment. I have no doubt there are huge bargains out there right now. But it will be very, very hard to pick them. And things are going to get worse before they get better. Ignore /biz/. If you are buying ANY Cryptos right now you are a fool. Cryptos are dumping because the developing world is dumping. What is happening in China, India and Turkey hasn't fully caught up to the USA and Europe yet, but it will. And when that happens the Cryptos will dump again. There is a possibility of a full reset to the 2018 level.

What needs to be stated is the Federal Reserve and Western Governments more generally have no more ammunition. They fired all their guns to keep the economy up during COVID. There is nothing more they can do, they cannot backstop this correction to prevent it escalating to a full blown panic.

At best they can delay the inevitable long enough to allow their buddies to get out. Do not be fooled by any further rallies. Cash is king right now. Or else gold and silver.

There is still one tool the feds have to eliminate the asset bubble and I think they're in the process of doing it. They can try to inflate the currency enough while, hopefully, keeping the asset markets stable so that the relative value of the assets returns to normal values. If wages increase to match the new inflation, I have a bridge in Norway to sell you if you believe this, it would drastically improve consumer buying power and shore up the economy. More realistically, wages will not keep up with the proposed inflation and quality of life will diminish while prices increase. This will hardly bother anyone principally invested in inelastic markets (real estate, medical, food), but it would devastate the consumer economy.

Personally, I think the feds are stuck between a rock and a hard place. I'm hoping there's someone smarter than me in charge of all of this, because I don't see a way out that doesn't fuck a ton of people over. Even just inflating away asset values while increasing wages to match will annihilate retirement funds, and that's assuming we live in magic fairy land where nothing else happens.

 

[Non-breath oblige]

 

[Autistic Joe]

Spotted earlier on Twitter, lol.

Margin call completely drained into the abyss, organized by Matt Brown

Since 2007 over 300k lost on margin calls and blown out futures accounts. A… Matt Brown needs your support for Margin call completely drained into the abyss

www.gofundme.com

 

[mindlessobserver]

Spotted earlier on Twitter, lol.

Margin call completely drained into the abyss, organized by Matt Brown

Since 2007 over 300k lost on margin calls and blown out futures accounts. A… Matt Brown needs your support for Margin call completely drained into the abyss

www.gofundme.com

View attachment 2911863

Retail investors, myself included, should not touch big boy toys, ever. The computers that run that shit are merciless and you will never have access to the protocols and algorithms the major funds use to play with shit like this.

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE]

TIME FOR GOLD TO SHINE BOIS.

 

[DumbDude42]

Retail investors, myself included, should not touch big boy toys, ever. The computers that run that shit are merciless and you will never have access to the protocols and algorithms the major funds use to play with shit like this.

the major players have their server rooms just a few blocks from the stock exchange, with a direct fibre wire connection so their algorithms can react to market changes within a fraction of a second

if you try to play that game as a civilian, the deck is stacked against you in so many ways, most of which you don't even know about, it's foolish to even try

 

[EquifraxSevven]

Kicking myself, because I put in a few extra hundred into my brokerage when the market started dipping, like any sane bear, but I bought immediately instead of waiting, so I could've gotten an even better deal on my stocks had I been patient. GAH!

I always thought options were cool as well, but never found a real reason or application to use them to actually make a profit. I agree, if you don't understand a financial tool that involves your money, don't touch it.

 

[Autistic Joe]

Retail investors, myself included, should not touch big boy toys, ever. The computers that run that shit are merciless and you will never have access to the protocols and algorithms the major funds use to play with shit like this.

Tbh, I think this was satire. At least I hope so! Funny thing is, he did nail it with the morning of the 20th, and the sentiment swing. I checked around lunchtime and saw all the sectors green... was about "this close" to adding 5 or 6 small positions in my short-term swing trading account to various sectors I like. But I smelled a rat, and I've been burned before on midday exuberance. What a perfectly executed bull-trap, it might need a few more days to bottom.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Tbh, I think this was satire. At least I hope so! Funny thing is, he did nail it with the morning of the 20th, and the sentiment swing. I checked around lunchtime and saw all the sectors green... was about "this close" to adding 5 or 6 small positions in my short-term swing trading account to various sectors I like. But I smelled a rat, and I've been burned before on midday exuberance. What a perfectly executed bull-trap, it might need a few more days to bottom.

Remains to be seen if this is the long jump or if it's just a correction. Considering just how much fear is out there right now, I certainly am not putting any money into this dip. They call it a Bull trap for a reason.

 

[Stoneheart]

Retail investors, myself included, should not touch big boy toys, ever. The computers that run that shit are merciless and you will never have access to the protocols and algorithms the major funds use to play with shit like this.

they also have endless credit lines and if shit hits the fan like today, they can call the ppt..

 

[Zyklon Ben's Poison Pen]

Go run the basic numbers on the materials needed to build the solar panels, windmills, and batteries at the level needed to provide capacity to the entire USA.

It's not cheaper, and worse than that we literally do not have the raw materials needed to pull it off.

Someone did:

Billions of solar panels would be needed.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Do not buy this dip.

 

[Audit]

I took the chance to divest most of my oil holdings with this 7 year oil high. I doubt the ukraine conflict will follow through to a full war and blow up gas prices even more. Might as well cash out of my oil positions and have the money ready to buy underpriced assets in the bear market.

 

[Hollywood Hulk Hogan]

I don't have the same level of pessimism @Aqua Panda

Age may be a factor but there is too much opportunity out there right now to be doomer. The stupid and fearful are about to take a bath, but volatility just means money once you get in line with the pattern.
I've been writing a futures contract trading bot, and results have been stellar lately.

Yeah, if you have a horizon over 5 years, just keep putting money in. If not, you shouldn't be 100% in stocks anyway
---
90% of my portfolio was index funds. Last year, I went through the 10% that isn't and sold half of them (so it turned into 95/5). Of the ones I sold, half went up, half went down. The ones I didn't all went down a lot. Feels bad man, but that's why it's only 5% of my portfolio. Gonna hold those fuckers for the long term, too.

I am still putting money into index funds when I get the money for it (right now mostly my 401k since I like frontloading it). 15% down means you're getting a better deal than if you bought before it went down. Trying to time it is a fool's errand and the price of stocks already has the potential interest rate hike built into it.

 

[Uncle June]

Yeah, if you have a horizon over 5 years, just keep putting money in. If not, you shouldn't be 100% in stocks anyway
---
90% of my portfolio was index funds. Last year, I went through the 10% that isn't and sold half of them (so it turned into 95/5). Of the ones I sold, half went up, half went down. The ones I didn't all went down a lot. Feels bad man, but that's why it's only 5% of my portfolio. Gonna hold those fuckers for the long term, too.

I am still putting money into index funds when I get the money for it (right now mostly my 401k since I like frontloading it). 15% down means you're getting a better deal than if you bought before it went down. Trying to time it is a fool's errand and the price of stocks already has the potential interest rate hike built into it.

This is the most coherent post in this thread.

Stocks are meant to be long term (at LEAST 5 years), and anybody trying to "flip" them to make an extra couple bucks on a dip are going to stress themselves to no end. Especially if within a year and you owe the dreaded short term capital gains.

Long term index fund investing (with low expense ratio funds) is the key. I know it isn't sexy, takes a long time, and it's certainly boring as piss, but it's been shown over seveal decades to work better than any other method.

As for me, I'm holding off investing for some liquidity as I'm about to close on a second property in a few weeks, but right after i get a better financial picture with my new asset, I'll be bumping contributions back up.