I think it's lunacy, and am honestly pretty alarmed by the rate it is building momentum. This is something that I actually have given a lot of thought to, and the short version of my opinion is pretty easily summed up. Genuine trans people undoubtedly exist, and are severely mentally unwell. I don't believe that these are the faces of trans activism, as a political movement, however, which seems to be primarily fuelled by fetishists who wish to manipulate policy and the social climate to further accommodate their perverse lifestyle.
I did a lot of posts theorizing and breaking down the psychology and sociology of trans people over the months, and what you said here is on point.
The whole "gender dysphoria" and the DSM5 for clinical diagnosis has been used as contentious methods to explain why transgenderism isn't a condition or a mental illness. Which is utterly wrong based solely on common sense and basic biology. That right there points to political agenda and propaganda that will push a narrative to, like you say, manipulate social policy.
Tin-foil hat: I believe that the trans movement is providing sexual criminals, many of whom are loud contributors the the "trans voice", with a very comfortable framework in which they can:
(a) obfuscate their criminal history;
(b) have access to women's spaces; and,
(c) continue to prey on women, potentially within these spaces, with the added protection of their trans status.
Well, I theorize is the psychology of the trans person that really wants to get into women spaces. Most of those people were/are/will be incels, who by body type or personality, were excluded and shunned by women during their adolescence; Which is the particular time where those feelings of dysphoria begin (mostly). They crave female attention and because they cannot get it they will try to become one of them so they could insert themselves in their circles to get the recognition they think they deserve, and hopefully end up trying to mate or find a companion.
And there is the issue with Gender Dysphoria. Because Gender Dysphoria is a very destructive illness that legitimate cannot connect the body with the mind of the individual and it will always feel at odds with his/her genitals. Most subjects who had Gender Dysphoria didn't feel attracted to "transition" to the opposite gender, but they welcomed it as a sort of inner desire to reconcile mind with body, and in most cases it still failed because Gender Dysmorphia doesn't recognize genders! and that's the crux of the matter: Gender Dysphoria is a mental condition that null the subject to feel connected with its gender, regardless of it and that will persist forever, even if he artificially tries to change it.
Is a never ending condition that can't be cure by "transition".
And, for those that don't have gender dysphoria which I'm sure it is 90% of troons, they want it because they were incels and faggots who got rejected and want attention upon themselves and they are degenerates of the lowest dumbest kind. They are literally retards, because they are mostly autistics, lazy fags that believe that trooning will improve their life.
I always laugh at troons and will smile every time one of them kills themselves. A good troon is a dead troon.