- Joined
- Feb 3, 2013
OK, let's run the numbers based on that assumption. He makes $10K a month now, $500 a month 10 years from now, and we'll assume a linear dropoff from now till then. We'll assume Phil is a complete bankrupt at the end of the decade and has no inheritance to leave Kat or anything like that.Fapcop said:Unless she’s a complete smoothbrain, she’ll know that a decade from now, Phil will make a few hundred dollars per week/month on his streams.
We'll say Phil hangs on tooth and claw to the Khando until his income drops below $30K a year, at which point he loses it.
I made two alimony estimates, "high" and "realistic".
"Realistic" goes by the guidelines here: https://trucelaw.com/spousal-maintenance/
"High" assumes alimony of 50% Phil's gross income and a 75% duration factor across the board. (Recall that the marriage started in 2019, so the duration on this chart starts at 2 years and counts up)
In both cases I cap the total alimony at the total of Phil's future earnings through 2031, plus $100K of equity in the house if he still has it at the time of divorce - the bloodsucking government can take 100% of his future income and assets but no more.
I assume Phil never obtains an adjustment on the original alimony no matter how low his income drops - it's always calculated on his income at the time of divorce.
I conservatively calculate in-kind "benefits" at a baseline of $2000/month today. $1800/month for the Khando mortgage, and then another $200 of fun money which I scale down linearly with his income. Once he loses the Khando, he moves into Jenna's Crack Shack which is only worth $500/month of in-kind benefits.
The three right columns are the total future value of all income derived from Phil in our three scenarios: divorcing with high alimony, divorcing with realistic alimony, and riding it out till the decade is up.
For simplicity I'm not dealing with discounting these future cashflows to their present value, inflation, or any of that.
| Year | Gross Income (Year) | Benefits (Year) | Total Alimony (High) | Total Alimony (Realistic) | Total Benefits (If Married Till 2031) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 120000 | 24000 | 90000 | 21600 | 204660 |
| 2022 | 108600 | 23772 | 122175 | 48870 | 180660 |
| 2023 | 97200 | 23544 | 145800 | 58320 | 156888 |
| 2024 | 85800 | 23316 | 160875 | 64350 | 133344 |
| 2025 | 74400 | 23088 | 167400 | 66960 | 110028 |
| 2026 | 63000 | 22860 | 165375 | 66150 | 86940 |
| 2027 | 51600 | 22632 | 154800 | 61920 | 64080 |
| 2028 | 40200 | 22404 | 135675 | 54270 | 41448 |
| 2029 | 28800 | 6576 | 52200 | 52200 | 19044 |
| 2030 | 17400 | 6348 | 23400 | 23400 | 12468 |
| 2031 | 6000 | 6120 | 6000 | 6000 | 6120 |
By this reckoning, it becomes worthwhile to divorce Phil in 2024 under the high-alimony scenario and in 2028 under the realistic-alimony scenario. These cutoffs actually stay about the same even if we increase Phil's 2031 income to $30000 or even $60000. The increased time and duration factors seem to dominate everything eventually.
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