TNOfication is not a bad thing in of itself - it provides a set of informal guidelines for lore-centric mods. However, due to the sea of nuances in both story building and internal development structure/cohesion any TNO-inspired or TNO-inspiring project usually falls flat.
Thank you for an insightful (and insider, at that) post. These make the thread flow nicely. There are some considerations to keep in mind about this point, though.
Firstly, that TNOfication provides a cultural development to HOI4 that is in some way productive to the community isn't under question. We tend to consider, and perhaps I do more than others here, that the mod has pushed the boundaries of TNO materially –with a great intensity of original assets– and conceptually –with design techniques and principles either underdeveloped or never seen before–. That this has allowed other developers eager to tell stories in HOI4 to do it better, or even in some clearer, more popularly acknowledged way, is also clear to me. In fact, narrative games are on the rise. Why should HOI4 miss out on its chance, a particularly good one at that, to ride that wave?
The issue lies in the effects of that wave. For three reasons, I would say:
1. You claim that TNOfication provides informal guidelines for lore-centric mods, but it's rather clear mods that barely care much about lore are following suit with predictably poor results. Even Kaiserredux, born from the counter-culture within Kaiserreich that de-centered realism and lore, has polluted its paths with novella events and so on. This is not only a problem with "nuance", but a problem in the very principles of designing mods. Once again, we go back to the point I made that you agreed with: even the brainstorming for them supposes TNO.
2. In mods that could benefit from TNO's example, there is often no effort to extend or develop its techniques to better ends. Once again, it is not only "nuance" that holds these developers back, but imagination and artistic vision: they may as well not imagine another form of narrative design or ludonarrative experience for a game that is close enough to TNO's style. Worse even, TNO happens to be on many points excellent. If no creativity is put in the service of increasing a mod's use of TNO designs, it's bound to appear inferior to TNO. Imitating greatness is how culture by example works, and you are right to say this is good. Imitating greatness without deviation, though, only makes one stand in the shadow. Easier and faster, you become a parody, and you may not even say you've done so in style.
3. Because TNOfication applies both to mods that could benefit from it and mods that could not, mods that are in development, those yet to release and those already here, it's become universal. Because, as I said above, this culture isn't being pushed or questioned, it becomes static and predictable. Put these two together and it seems the entire community is stuck with TNO, caught in the same dullness. It wouldn't mind TNOfication if it kept giving us new and exciting projects, but it does not. I would not mind it if it pushed the community forward, but it does not. TNO did that - TNOfication did not.
I do think TNOfication is a bad thing in and of itself, because I haven't seen it do anything other than this. In an abstract thought, yes, I can imagine it working wonders - but it has not, and I am not sure it will.