I can't say this enough, Starfield for Todd was literally just a "space/sci fi game". I think at some point it just became an excuse to visit Nasa than being any sort of "game dream". I think the disappointment of Starfield hurts Emil more than Todd at this point because it was more his ideas and stuff "behind it all" than Todd.
Todd already seemed checked out of Starfield by the time he did the Lex Friedman interview in 2022. He was even tempering expectations by that time.
I think the dude is checked out of gaming in general. It's why he keeps mentioning retirement. And I think he saw the writing on the wall with Starfield sometime in 2021 most likely, and that's why he's talked about how he wishes "they" would let him just reveal a game when it's done and release it like 1-3 months later. It makes me think that he wishes Starfield could have been cancelled when he realized it just wouldn't work, but because they had to announce it in 2018 there was an obligation to release it.
Then you hear the stories of how Bethesda wanted it out by 2021, how Pete Hines (I think) was telling people it'd be out at certain times, only to then have Microsoft announce it was delayed, and it makes me think that Microsoft deal probably forced their hand as well.
Even Todd talking about his regret at taking so long for Elder Scrolls VI to come out now. It all strikes me as Todd seeing the writing on the wall but being stuck dealing with this shit. I don't think he looks so defeated at the Game Awards because Starfield is being forgotten or because it was't up for any awards. I think he (and probably other "elder statesman" of western development) see the writing on the wall and are sick of all this video game shit and are scrambling to get out. That's why Dan Houser bailed on Rockstar. That's why Pete Hines retired. Etc. etc.