Warhammer 40k

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Judge Dredd said:
This was my take away as well.

It makes me wonder if there was a sweet spot around 2010 when prices were lower in comparison to income or inflation. eg. If the cost of space marines remained stagnant and it's only the last few years they bumped the price.
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The only models I own are the Necrons out of the Necrons vs AdMechs battle box I split with a friend back in 2019. I thought about getting more, so I looked at the 'start collecting' set because there was a Games Workshop store right down the street from me. It was $75 for 23 models. To expensive, so I passed. A couple months ago I popped back in just to see how much more expensive everything got. They don't have the start collecting sets anymore, instead they have something called 'combat patrol'. The Necron set comes with 19 models, but costs $170. More than twice the price for fewer models.
 
Judge Dredd said:
This was my take away as well.

It makes me wonder if there was a sweet spot around 2010 when prices were lower in comparison to income or inflation. eg. If the cost of space marines remained stagnant and it's only the last few years they bumped the price.
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Nah. It's really just the past few years that GW has been publicly announcing their price increases on warcom(with averages running 5-10% and they started getting fucked in freight cost increases in I believe it was 2022?) but they've been happening the entire time(just only informing retailers rather than customers directly). Sometimes not annually(and then seeing larger increases to make up for the years they didn't bump the prices), and sometimes on characters normally sold at lower volume to I guess offset things like 10 packs of space marines packaged for Horus Heresy, etc. And of course factor this in with how even more people are online and communicating with eachother(complaining really, not that it isn't justified) making it easier to spot price hikes in places around the globe.
2011 had price increases around mostly 10-25%

Here's icv2 discussing price increases(including some apparently up to 70% but averaging 20%) back in fall 2008(they don't show individual breakdowns unfortunately)

This site has a lot of archives of their old print catalogs. Around 2005 I believe it was they stopped printing prices in them but you can still follow the price increases over time during the 90s pretty easily(with blister packs for non characters being some of the worst value, as well as getting random sculpts for buying individual infantry via mail order sometimes)

Here's a forum thread discussing imminent price hikes(and then complaints about it) back in 2004

Here's a working archive.org pull from their UK webstore back in 2007 where you can browse prices as well. There's some weird pricing especially on their discount boxes for shit like the space marine megaforce being 100 pounds with 1 character, basically 30 infantry, a razorback, dreadnought, and predator. But then the 105 pound starter set only has 25 infantry and a rhino, but bundles in some bullshit like a rattle can of black paint, a stupid how to paint book, and their overpriced tool "kit".

So yeah, shit's always been expensive, and GW likes to keep their margins absurdly high(hence having the cash on hand to be building new factories rather than taking on debt for it, which is a good business move just not great for consumers).
Bâtard Consanguine said:
The only models I own are the Necrons out of the Necrons vs AdMechs battle box I split with a friend back in 2019. I thought about getting more, so I looked at the 'start collecting' set because there was a Games Workshop store right down the street from me. It was $75 for 23 models. To expensive, so I passed. A couple months ago I popped back in just to see how much more expensive everything got. They don't have the start collecting sets anymore, instead they have something called 'combat patrol'. The Necron set comes with 19 models, but costs $170. More than twice the price for fewer models.
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There was also a smaller start collecting as well that they released later with only 17 models(one was a triarch stalker) in it for $90, Then the original combat patrol at 15 models(1 being a doomscythe for some reason) at I want to say $130? Then the current one with "19 models"(fucking lie, 3 of them are just scarabs on the sprue with warrirors, but at least they're a unit. And then the plasmacyte for the skorpek destroyers which is just a fucking token now) for $170. With the combat patrol "game mode" being an unbalanced dumpster fire.
 
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This channel has hilarious Starwars/40K crossover animations.
Here's a stormtrooper meeting a veteran guardsman.

On the subject of youtubers, MajorKill has started selling his bodybuilding workout program and recklessly shilling peptides about a month ago.
 
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What is it with Warhammer youtubers overdoing their voice or presentation of the lore as they grow? MajorKill is almost impossible for me to listen to with or without his retard shilling. Wolf Lord Rho also comes to mind. I listen to videos from 5 years ago and he talks at a normal cadence with minimal affect. Now its like he runs his videos in 0.75 speed while padding out the runtime after using some of the worst clickbait imaginable. Arch's remastered series for the Siege of Vraks is not listenable.
 
GW has always pegged their prices to inflation to a certain extent. They also price units based on overstock and other liabilities. This has been their M.O. for over 30 years. They just have the capital now to refresh the smaller army lines that they ignored before.
 
Mayfly said:
What is it with Warhammer youtubers overdoing their voice or presentation of the lore as they grow? MajorKill is almost impossible for me to listen to with or without his retard shilling. Wolf Lord Rho also comes to mind. I listen to videos from 5 years ago and he talks at a normal cadence with minimal affect. Now its like he runs his videos in 0.75 speed while padding out the runtime after using some of the worst clickbait imaginable. Arch's remastered series for the Siege of Vraks is not listenable.
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You kind of answered your own question. It's all about that watch time and maintaining momentum.

This is going to sound off topic, but a lot of DnD youtubers are complaining right now because the game has cratered and the normie fad from Stranger Things and Critical Role has worn off. Talking about DnD was viable as a career 5-10 years ago, but now they're turning into dead channels. Some stay the course because they're passionate about TTRPGs and aren't in it for the money. Some have tried to pivot to drama or indie games with mixed success. It then becomes a catch 22. YouTube deranks DnD videos because no one watches them, and people who want to watch DnD videos can't find them because YouTube deranks them.

Now, I don't follow 40k closely enough to know if it's on an upswing or downswing. I'm guessing upswing after the popularity of Space Marine 2 and Astartes 2, but if 40k is draining players, I'd believe that.
 
Read “The Siege of Castellax” tonight, purely because it has a Raptor IW protagonist.
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Rhodaan needs to bro-up with Honsou when Pert reforms the Trident. This guy is one of my favourite CSM protags now.
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Rhodaan’s jump pack is what the jump pack Chaos Lord should’ve had.
 
Judge Dredd said:
This is going to sound off topic, but a lot of DnD youtubers are complaining right now because the game has cratered and the normie fad from Stranger Things and Critical Role has worn off. Talking about DnD was viable as a career 5-10 years ago, but now they're turning into dead channels. Some stay the course because they're passionate about TTRPGs and aren't in it for the money. Some have tried to pivot to drama or indie games with mixed success. It then becomes a catch 22. YouTube deranks DnD videos because no one watches them, and people who want to watch DnD videos can't find them because YouTube deranks them.

Now, I don't follow 40k closely enough to know if it's on an upswing or downswing. I'm guessing upswing after the popularity of Space Marine 2 and Astartes 2, but if 40k is draining players, I'd believe that.
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40k is a bit of a roller coaster. I'd say right now we're on the downswing and have been on a downswing for a while. 10 edition isn't very popular and Space Marine 2 didn't convert many people into hobbyists. People liked Space Marine 2, not 40k. DnD suffers a similar problem. Baldur's Gate 3 is a massive success. But people don't like DnD, they just like Baldur's Gate. Warhammer as a hobby needs to compete with instant content. Video games and tv shows occupy you at the press of a button. DnD and Warhammer require you to make your own fun.

All hobbies lose people over time. Some people only want to wait for the next big release, play for a bit, then chase the next trend. Warhammer has to compete with literally everything all the time. If you don't have a big release something else does and people are going to do that instead. Warhammer video games and tv shows can compete but I don't know how the hobby ever could. Codices and box sets might be kind of interesting for some of your players, but right now if you're not an EC, Ork, T'au, or Custodes player what do you have to make you want to dust off your models? Likewise what has DnD done to convince people to roleplay?

If GW didn't completely fuck combat patrol that could've been what the game needed to keep up engagement. I'd love to buy premade boxes to play new armies in small scale 40k. You don't need to produce an entire new model range or codex you just need to make a little box with its own self contained rules sort of like Kill Team. It also means that while I'm waiting for my main faction to get updated I can easily play something else. Instead they used it as an excuse to kill off start collecting box sets and filled each one with overstock models that nobody wants. GW isn't interested in selling to the casual fan who might pick up a Combat Patrol or two and have fun. They want the whale who will buy the box set plus all of the other kits required to actually complete it and make it playable.
 
Judge Dredd said:
Now, I don't follow 40k closely enough to know if it's on an upswing or downswing. I'm guessing upswing after the popularity of Space Marine 2 and Astartes 2, but if 40k is draining players, I'd believe that.
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Speaking as an outsider who doesn't own any minis because it's not my hobby and I don't like tabletop games, it seems to me like the movement from a base setting where you can create your own stories or explore it for yourself, to an overarching narrative with a continuing progression of events, will upset tabletop players who see their favorite characters or units removed from the tabletop for lore reasons.

I think interest in 40K by people not into the tabletop will also die off significantly as the lore has the width of an ocean but the depth of a puddle. Every author introduces these black boxes that are "mysterious" and teased as highly consequential without being expanded on. Games Workshop has managed to choose the option that will alienate both new fans and hobbyists. Space Marine II cannot do anything to repair these deeper structural issues in the way the lore relates to the game. They need to pick a lane.

There's no reason for me to get invested in 40K as a creative IP when I know nothing will ever happen. I'm not going to hold my breath on Games Workshop getting its shit together. Sad to see the hobby die for those people who have spent decades invested in it.
 
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Mayfly said:
Speaking as an outsider who doesn't own any minis because it's not my hobby and I don't like tabletop games, it seems to me like the movement from a base setting where you can create your own stories or explore it for yourself, to an overarching narrative with a continuing progression of events, will upset tabletop players who see their favorite characters or units removed from the tabletop for lore reasons.

I think interest in 40K by people not into the tabletop will also die off significantly as the lore has the width of an ocean but the depth of a puddle. Every author introduces these black boxes that are "mysterious" and teased as highly consequential without being expanded on. Games Workshop has managed to choose the option that will alienate both new fans and hobbyists. Space Marine II cannot do anything to repair these deeper structural issues in the way the lore relates to the game. They need to pick a lane.

There's no reason for me to get invested in 40K as a creative IP when I know nothing will ever happen. I'm not going to hold my breath on Games Workshop getting its shit together. Sad to see the hobby die for those people who have spent decades invested in it.
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What you've described regarding characters, black boxes, etc. has been ongoing for the past 2 decades ever since the Horus Heresy book series went beyond the scope of the original 4 books and turned into a 50+ book mess and the game itself has become more popular during the entire duration. With as many youtube channels as there are screeching about how GW has ruined the game for one reason or another, it doesn't amount to much.

There's definitely going to be bleed off of people who decided to buy minis after placing Space Marine 2 and then give up for a variety of reasons(it's practically guaranteed) however the overall popularity hasn't decreased at all. LVO had almost 1100 players this year up around 150 from last year, with all of the biggest north america events having more players last year than previous as well, so much so there was another one added for 2025. Obviously GW's YoY growth can't be infinite but it's been climbing for a few years now even without Space Marine 2, to the point of them now building a new factory to double their production(which they need to do with half of the product range at any given time being sold out for the past 4 years straight).

Claiming it's dying at this point is ridiculous. It'll happen eventually, but right now? No.
 
p1138 said:
Claiming it's dying at this point is ridiculous. It'll happen eventually, but right now? No.
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Consider that even if more people get involved in the game, the actual armies being played may heavily favor one side. What about the players who play Eldar or other xenos races? I don't know and I can't comment authoritatively on that, but there are plenty of ways that players might feel poorly about the setting while Games Workshop maintains its growth. In time, those cracks can widen and have dramatic impacts on engagement with the game. Focusing on sales and player numbers is apt when talking about raw player count or profitability, but I also never made any claims about player count or the profitability of 40K. Certainly not exclusively. The Horus Heresy is fundamentally different from the current lore. Most people already know the wider consequences of the Horus Heresy and the conclusion of the story before engaging with it. There is no such framework for the future of the lore going forward. Black boxes now have a far worse effect on the narrative than they have had in the past for precisely this reason.
 
I think I remember that the average 40k fan plays for about 2 years. Which kinda makes sense because after 2 years you've completed your first army and if you don't have anything else you want from the hobby you'll just drift away.
 
Mayfly said:
Consider that even if more people get involved in the game, the actual armies being played may heavily favor one side. What about the players who play Eldar or other xenos races?
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What about it? If hardly anyone is playing eldar, then hardly anyone is playing eldar. Game is already basically 50% space marine variants as it is anyway.
Mayfly said:
Focusing on sales and player numbers is apt when talking about raw player count or profitability, but I also never made any claims about player count or the profitability of 40K. Certainly not exclusively.
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Someone is buying models, books, etc.
Mayfly said:
Games Workshop has managed to choose the option that will alienate both new fans and hobbyists
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Mayfly said:
Sad to see the hobby die for those people who have spent decades invested in it.
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They aren't statements about profitability, but they are statements about player and fan count. Not everyone who buys books and even models plays the game(some people just like to paint), but when player counts have been observably increasing for years, while GW is simultaneously releasing more and more books and other products(which they do break down to an extent in their financials) it's easy to spot the steady growth.
Mayfly said:
The Horus Heresy is fundamentally different from the current lore. Most people already know the wider consequences of the Horus Heresy and the conclusion of the story before engaging with it. There is no such framework for the future of the lore going forward. Black boxes now have a far worse effect on the narrative than they have had in the past for precisely this reason.
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The horus heresy lore used to not exist, but now it does and it impacts the "current" 40k lore in many ways, most obvious of which was GW leaving ways to bring primarchs back to the setting if they felt like it and have then proceeded to do so multiple times now all selling incredibly well when initially released and then slowing down over time once there's no rush(unless there's a meta shift but that's a separate matter). On top of that, you're also forgetting that the horus heresy itself was sort of a black box, but has since been fleshed out to include some of the stupidest shit like Arkan Land being the "inventor" of Land's Raider. Beyond that though and specifically within 40k, even the eisenhorn trilogy has been expanded by another 7 books with another one due eventually(that's supposedly finished)? Ahirman of the thousand sons is on his 5th now. Books are being written about Ciaphas Cain's retirement instead of during the prime of his career. If people weren't eating this crap up, they wouldn't be making it. For every black box that gets added, they add more stuff to widen the puddle that is the depth of 40k. It's not even that much different than say the MCU if you just assume that all of the named main characters of books are just superheroes.

Now what @Swiss46 mentioned about a 2 year cycle, coming off of covid and then ramping back up again for Space Marine 2 I can kind of see that, but the gap between covid lockdowns and Space Marine 2 is too long to support it.
 
You guys see the Space Wolf skin in SM2 has the yiffer helmet?

Kek, it’s for the black guy too. Space Wolves continue to be the lamest and gayest chapter.
 
Spilled Spaghett said:
If GW didn't completely fuck combat patrol that could've been what the game needed to keep up engagement
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I hate what they did with the new guard kill team. They got rid of all mechs and heavy weapons for Kasrkin and Cav. Fucking retarded.

Judge Dredd said:
Now, I don't follow 40k closely enough to know if it's on an upswing or downswing. I'm guessing upswing after the popularity of Space Marine 2 and Astartes 2, but if 40k is draining players, I'd believe that.
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From what I’ve heard about the new Kill Team it hasn’t been well received. Idk I never dived into it I just keep using the older game rules.

Humble Architect said:
You guys see the Space Wolf skin in SM2 has the yiffer helmet?

Kek, it’s for the black guy too. Space Wolves continue to be the lamest and gayest chapter.
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They’re never going to live down the furry accusations. Ever. Even the dude who’s way into Nordic mythology will eventually feel the slight cringe
 
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