I kinda wonder if a similar discussion about homosexuals before the early 2010s could be had.
When I was young the main right they wanted was the right to have marriages that were recognised as being the same as heterosexual marriages. They got that, they won, they're equal now. Which is why all the LGBT organisations had to start pushing the T part of the acronym. I don't really blame ordinary gay people for this. They may have been suckered into thinking that genderspecials only wanted they same sort of equality they got. But troons are good at preying on the empathy of others, and a group that had only recently won their rights were in a position to feel empathetic.
I say this because I was extremely sympathetic to the concept of "trans rights" until quite recently. And it's only after seeing how little empathy they have for others (maybe not every trans person as a discrete individual, but certainly the trans community as a whole, trans people who seem to care about those outside of the community are the minority, and they end up getting treated like heretics anyway. Look at someone like Rose of Dawn's twitter replies for saying things like "maybe we should do something about all the trans sex pests") that I decided that I was done sticking my neck out for people who wouldn't piss on me if I was on fire.
A big fundamental difference between the gays in the 2000s and the troons now is that trans rights has no definable end goal the way gay rights did. No matter how much they get it's never enough, and it never makes them happy anyway. They keep winning, but their victories are like ash in their mouths. No group is as coddled and infantalized, yet they've still managed to convince themselves that they are the modern Jews in 1930s Germany. I just wish they'd understand that even most transphobes don't want them to die so much as just shut the fuck up and accept being held to the same standards of acceptable behavior as the rest of us.
I guess I'd sum it up by saying that gays wanted to be the same as everyone else, and troons want to be better than everyone else.
I was an adult and politically aware in the 2000's ("aughts") and I can tell you that gay rights were definitely not the same struggle nor was the struggle even similar at face value. In fact, the only relation the gay rights movement had with "trans rights" is that the conservatives correctly predicted the slope becoming slippery.
I was sceptical of the "slippery slope" argument at the time. And while in hindsight I was naive, from what I remember the two main examples of the slippery slope were polygamy and beastiality. No one really saw the troon wave coming. The problem was that all the gay rights orgs had a lot of money at stake and they wouldn't be able to hold onto that if they merely transitioned to fighting a rear guard action to protect the rights gays already have. Polygamist rights were a no go because there aren't that many people who want multiple partners but also believe in the bonds of holy matrimony. And our society isn't so degenerate (yet) as to openly tolerate beastiality. So trans rights was the logical next cause.
A thing I don't think anyone really could have predicted is how thin skinned and volatile the trans community would become. I swear they weren't like this back when they were still called transsexuals (why did the name change anyway?). Maybe because you actually had to pay some sort of social cost back then so they knew not to rock the boat. But these days it seems to have just become a socially acceptable way to be a narcissist. I don't want to powerlevel too much, but about 10 years ago I had a really bad experience with someone who I am convinced had narcissistic personality disorder (this was a bit before accusing anyone you don't like of being a narcissist became the big thing on reddit btw). In the months following this incident I devoted myself to learning as much about NPD as I could as a way of dealing with the trauma of what I'd been through.
And now that I've put two and two together it's amazing how of what I learned applies to the troons. The constant need for affirmation mirrors the need for narcissistic supply to keep a fragile ego from collapsing. And the rage they feel when someone breaks the illusion is identical to what narcissists do when someone injures them by reminding them that they are not the center of the universe. They are also amazing at manipulation, they know exactly how to suck up to those with more power than them, while stamping down on those beneath them. All while maintaining a facade of innocence. It's incredible that such a small group can cast such a wide shadow. But when you have a pathological need to control others you are going to put that much more effort into it than a normal person would.
Ultimately I think the only way the wave breaks is if they go too far. It wasn't J.K Rowling and the Terfs or Matt Walsh and the religious right that radicalised me. It was having to deal with trans people and their entitlement. But you just can't underestimate the liberal love of performative self flagellation. Liberals treat trans people like they are a perennial special needs child. The bigotry of low expectations is strong here, I can't think of any other group that has as much of a shield from criticism. I genuinely cannot empathize with how troons seem to enjoy this. I hate being infantalised, nothing makes me angrier. But they seem content to be treated like children forever. Emotionally unstable children who get a free pass to be sex pests.