Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

Uncle June said:
This is the most coherent post in this thread.

Stocks are meant to be long term (at LEAST 5 years), and anybody trying to "flip" them to make an extra couple bucks on a dip are going to stress themselves to no end. Especially if within a year and you owe the dreaded short term capital gains.

Long term index fund investing (with low expense ratio funds) is the key. I know it isn't sexy, takes a long time, and it's certainly boring as piss, but it's been shown over seveal decades to work better than any other method.

As for me, I'm holding off investing for some liquidity as I'm about to close on a second property in a few weeks, but right after i get a better financial picture with my new asset, I'll be bumping contributions back up.
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It depends. Short term capital gains taxes are fairly small (~10%) on anything below $10k. A few good flips on some obviously underpriced assets you bought that spiked on market hysteria are worth selling early. It's all a question of the market volatility. Commodities like oil tend to fall in this category. They're unlikely to go up in value perpetually but they can deliver solid dividends when the market is rough.

Main ticket ETF's SP500, Russell 1000 shouldn't be casually flipped because they're reliably going to increase in value over time. Never sell these, or other growth assets, on a whim.

I try to run a 90/10 ETF/for funsies split. The "fun" long term hold blue chip stocks I bought haven't born fruit yet but I'm confident they'll do well once the companies' finish getting their multibillion dollar foundries up and running. The final 10% is really just a form of entertainment for me. You can call it gambling money if you will. It's paid off so far.
 
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Audit said:
It depends. Short term capital gains taxes are fairly small (~10%) on anything below $10k. A few good flips on some obviously underpriced assets you bought that spiked on market hysteria are worth selling early. It's all a question of the market volatility. Commodities like oil tend to fall in this category. They're unlikely to go up in value perpetually but they can deliver solid dividends when the market is rough.

Main ticket ETF's SP500, Russell 1000 shouldn't be casually flipped because they're reliably going to increase in value over time. Never sell these, or other growth assets, on a whim.

I try to run a 90/10 ETF/for funsies split. The "fun" long term hold blue chip stocks I bought haven't born fruit yet but I'm confident they'll do well once the companies' finish getting their multibillion dollar foundries up and running. The final 10% is really just a form of entertainment for me. You can call it gambling money if you will. It's paid off so far.
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Short term capital gains are at your regular income level, so if you're in the 24% bracket, then you'd owe 24%. So that means you'd have to get an extra 14% (since LTCG are 10% at that bracket) to come out even.
 
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Hollywood Hulk Hogan said:
Yeah, if you have a horizon over 5 years, just keep putting money in. If not, you shouldn't be 100% in stocks anyway
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90% of my portfolio was index funds. Last year, I went through the 10% that isn't and sold half of them (so it turned into 95/5). Of the ones I sold, half went up, half went down. The ones I didn't all went down a lot. Feels bad man, but that's why it's only 5% of my portfolio. Gonna hold those fuckers for the long term, too.

I am still putting money into index funds when I get the money for it (right now mostly my 401k since I like frontloading it). 15% down means you're getting a better deal than if you bought before it went down. Trying to time it is a fool's errand and the price of stocks already has the potential interest rate hike built into it.
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This is good advice but there is a wild card in "its all priced in". And that is if the Federal Reserve is lying, either by outright omission or by fudging the numbers. I know they are doing the latter and suspect the former.

At the very core of things in any economy, is the understanding of what a "thing" is worth. If nobody knows what a "thing" is worth, then it's essentially worthless. I do not know what the Debt Market is worth and I am terrified the people who SHOULD know also don't know. And thats a big problem because the debt market on paper has a value far in excess of the entire economic output of the Global economy.

This entire situation is shockingly similar to Song China's silver script scenario.
 
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I've been holding USOI for monthly dividends (which are not qualified dividends, so they are taxed as income like @Hollywood Hulk Hogan posted), with NRGD as the counterbalance as a growth selloff (I made an excited post about oil armageddon in the market thread in autumn, and despite being lower than ever, I balance back out when it dips). It's functionally working out like a safer straddle play:

If oil keeps climbing, USOI will pay better dividends
If oil sinks, USOI won't pay dividends and may lose some value, but theoretically NRGD grows by more, since it's triple leveraged.

So far, I'm making pretty steady money just off holding the USOI (the dividend was double the usual amount this month, about 0.14 per share, making me around 5k), and NRGD is circling the drain until somebody remembers there is oil in the ground and people can remove it - or until weather gets better. I might sell some USOI in preparation, or I might just watch to see if the contraption survives the Great Stagflation. I kinda miss fucking with my account every day, but I can't find a better strategy right now.

Also yes I hold SARK
 
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mindlessobserver said:
Somebody is gonna have to pay the bill someday. I guess all these childless boomers hope they are dead by then.
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The rise and fall of nations through debasement of citizens energy and time is nothing new. The "bill" will be payed by the renormalization of indentured servitude and slavery of the global populace. Being a plebeian in our new world will be much more unpleasant than it was in days past. At least the serfs of old had 18yo wives, 20 hour work weeks, and believed in God. Still, the wheel of history will continue to turn, and a gilded age will come again.
 
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secretchan said:
The rise and fall of nations through debasement of citizens energy and time is nothing new. The "bill" will be payed by the renormalization of indentured servitude and slavery of the global populace. Being a plebeian in our new world will be much more unpleasant than it was in days past. At least the serfs of old had 18yo wives, 20 hour work weeks, and believed in God. Still, the wheel of history will continue to turn, and a gilded age will come again.
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Or bretton woods 3. Same thing really.
 
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secretchan said:
The US national debt will be over 100 trillion dollars in less than 4 years. Posturing about doing rate hikes is the new doing rake hikes.
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The fed knows that a rate hike would melt the economy. Too many zombie corporations fueled by PE firms are hanging by a thread as it is. American Physician Partners can't even service their debt now much less after a rate hike, and they aren't the only healthcare company in this spot.
 
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mindlessobserver said:
I remain in awe of the Feds dark magic, and their willingness to mortgage the future to prop up asset prices in the present.
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The problem is they keep kicking the can down the road and it keeps becoming a bigger and bigger issue. I always thought '08 was a unique thing but if you read something like "When Genius Failed" about the LTCM situation you realize it's been going on for far longer with bailouts and attempts to reduce volatility. Because it's been going on for so long it's such a fucked system that any change can cause it just shit the bed as we've seen with minor rate hikes during the Trump era.

Another problem is the US is just making less and less stuff, and doing more importing. That's great in the short term, but as we've seen with many companies once they start going towards the financial model instead of the production one it tends to go to shit really quickly after a big initial burst. Look at things like Enron on the really fucked side and things like GE on the best outcome where things can be worse but at least they're not completely dead.
 
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Welp, the Feds inflation of the economy just detonated in the housing rental market. Almost 20% increase in costs this year compared to last year across 50 metro areas.

apnews.com

Rents reach 'insane' levels across US with no end in sight

Krystal Guerra’s Miami apartment has a tiny kitchen, cracked tiles, warped cabinets, no dishwasher and hardly any storage space. But Guerra was fine with the apartment’s shortcomings. It was all part of being a 32-year-old graduate student in South Florida, she reasoned, and she was happy to...
apnews.com apnews.com

So fucking glad I bought a house last year. I even feel some smug justification for doing it so quickly and damn the torpedoes. Normally that is a brainlet move, but I could smell smoke. Welp, here is the fire.
 
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secretchan said:
The US national debt will be over 100 trillion dollars in less than 4 years. Posturing about doing rate hikes is the new doing rake hikes.
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When they pull the rug out from underneath everything and let things crash so they can buy everything in the firesale, they'll probably do it under a Republican president as they wont want to associate the Democrat party with the collapse. Probably in the third year so that it can't be immediately pinned on the predecessor. So, I guess in 2026/7?

Of course that presumes they CAN keep it going that long. The alternative is they do it now while they still have control of the government and can enact what they like. Good luck with that, though.

I do believe there are powerful people in control. But I'm getting the feeling at this point that they're more like Buster Keaton driving a car with no breaks than actually on top of things. Their hands are on the wheel but they aren't in control.
 
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