Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[XYZpdq]

It's the most clown world thing to happen so far in clown world. And I didn't even mention that the Nazis in Ukraine were given a lot of their startup funding from a Jew. Yeah. Kolomoyskyi is a Jew and is funding Nazis to be used as a private army to control Ukraine and attack Russians. Bake your noodle in that for a minute or two. HONK HONK

iirc both sides are employing neonazis at the behest of old money oligarchs who also happen to be jews
HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONK

 

[MarvinTheParanoidAndroid]

• Obvious shills and Twitter antics for either side will be threadbanned.

Can you please clarify what "Twitter antics" means? I'm guessing "Obvious shills" means people strongly defending either Russia or Ukraine.

 

[Drag-on Knight 91873]

Wasn't that tried already with the Mujahideen?

It would be legit funny if Zelensky became the new Osama Bin Laden and fucked over the EU for being fair-weather friends.

 

[mudwogg]

Less fun, but hopefully more informative. For the record I don't trust TV sources as they're propaganda for clueless boomers.

I've been called many times a conspiracy theorist for not buying the mainstream narrative.

After 9/11 and when Bush decided to declare war on Iraq, then came the rhetorics like, "protecting our freedoms" and "Saddam wants to rule the world". I never had a strong opinion in the entire ordeal but a desire to know why these things happen. At a time social media's influence was still minimal (era of Friendster and Myspace), my skepticism towards fake news began after reading the comments sections of certain news sites and diving into forums, where I discovered persons against the idea of invading Iraq express their points.

One of the BS narratives being pushed was Saddam wanting to recreate Babylon, and other stuff painting him as a cartoon villain (South Park Bigger, Longer and Uncut mentioned that he bombs his own people, whereas the reality was that he dealt with insurgents at the aftermath of the Gulf War) Whereas today it is Putin wanting to recreate the Russian Empire. Of course nobody's ever going to bring up the fact that the Ba'ath party's (Saddam's political group) rise to power was assisted by the US government.

 

[Nuns with guns]

Redditors are buying this shit. It sounds just like complete bullshit. My heckin pupperini helpers nooo!


Original article
Archive

For some reason I can't archive the plebbit thread but you get an idea.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

After doing digging, with how ineffective the Northern front is, I'm beginning to think it's just to tie up supplies and troops, so the land of Novorossiya taken over and formed into a confederacy of puppet states, where Putin will hopefully leave it at that during peace talks. The LPR and DPR have always been Russian puppet states and they tried to do it back in 2014. Don't have to worry about Revolutionary Hell that is Central and Western Ukraine.

 

[Matt Damon]

Redditors are buying this shit. It sounds just like complete bullshit. My heckin pupperini helpers nooo!

View attachment 3053927
Original article
Archive

For some reason I can't archive the plebbit thread but you get an idea.

The story could claim that Putin himself killed them using a giant anime mech suit and Reddit would believe it.

 

[Instant_Pot_User]

After doing digging, with how ineffective the Northern front is, I'm beginning to think it's just to tie up supplies and troops, so the land of Novorossiya taken over and formed into a confederacy of puppet states, where Putin will hopefully leave it at that during peace talks. The LPR and DPR have always been Russian puppet states and they tried to do it back in 2014. Don't have to worry about Revolutionary Hell that is Central and Western Ukraine.
View attachment 3053943

inb4 Ruthenia 2

 

[Happy Fish]

The story could claim that Putin himself killed them using a giant anime mech suit and Reddit would believe it.

To be fair, I'd want to believe it.

 

[The Foldless Brain]

After doing digging, with how ineffective the Northern front is, I'm beginning to think it's just to tie up supplies and troops, so the land of Novorossiya taken over and formed into a confederacy of puppet states, where Putin will hopefully leave it at that during peace talks. The LPR and DPR have always been Russian puppet states and they tried to do it back in 2014. Don't have to worry about Revolutionary Hell that is Central and Western Ukraine.
View attachment 3053943

Plausible honestly. At least in terms of tying up troops. Despite the 40 mile meme convoy and the artillery positions in Kharkov the Russians have accomplished fuck all to the north while their progress is steady to the south and east. Would probably have been even steadier if they hadn't gone for 3 separate failed ceasefires.

 

[Übertroon]

It seems the Global War on Terror and the counter insurgencies of Afghanistan and Iraq have really rotted the brains of any intelligible conversation on how a real war is supposed to be waged.
Sure there have been some miscues, random convoys and a company or two of VDV torched, but the fact that Russia has nearly reached the Dnieper River while simultaneously driving on four major axis of advance, kettling the majority of Ukraine’s armed forces in the East and surrounding Kiev, all during the Rasputitsa (muddy season) in just two weeks is astounding.
This is the fastest military advance in modern history, outpacing Iraq 2003, Gulf Storm, Poland 1939, and France 1940.
I think maybe the Mongols advanced further and faster.
We’ll see how the next two weeks go. But it’ll be fascinating to see the other side of the coin when and if Russia ever lets us see their footage and history of the war.
(Spelling edits)

Operation Barbarossa was likely faster. It took the Germans a week to advance from brest to Minsk and capturing the city, decimating two armies in the process. That's 343km and a full siege from 22nd June to 3rd of july

 

[Fake News Anchor]

Can you please clarify what "Twitter antics" means? I'm guessing "Obvious shills" means people strongly defending either Russia or Ukraine.

DON'T QUESTION THE CENSORS TRUST YOUR TECH TRANNY MODS

 

[Mussi]

After doing digging, with how ineffective the Northern front is, I'm beginning to think it's just to tie up supplies and troops, so the land of Novorossiya taken over and formed into a confederacy of puppet states, where Putin will hopefully leave it at that during peace talks. The LPR and DPR have always been Russian puppet states and they tried to do it back in 2014. Don't have to worry about Revolutionary Hell that is Central and Western Ukraine.
View attachment 3053943

It wouldn't just be Novorossiya if Putin wanted to really go all in. He'd also take all regions east of Dnieper to push western-aligned states west of the Russian heartland.

 

[The Foldless Brain]

The rail line from Crimea to Melitopol suggests that the Russkies' supply situation is bound to improve to the East. Been ages since I saw an armored train.

 

[Rezza]

View attachment 3053850
Since nobody is actually posting content thus far and the first page will be absolute garbage I'll drop this overly optimistic map of Russia gains. I don't believe that the countryside is that well controlled, maybe the highways, but certainly nothing warranting coloring in that vast amount of space.

I don't really like map like this because its hard to believe that the Russian are able to effectively control the territories they claimed to have taken, especially when they don't have the time, resources, and manpower to spare while they still needed to take Kyiv and capture or kill Zelenskiy

Insurgency will be the name of the game for the Ukrainian there. I wonder if this was the reason why Russia lost two generals in a very short time

This war is almost certainly going to be dictated by the vast amount of insurgents that plague Russia over the course of months or years and its important to note that Russia doesn't really control every little village and town in the countryside, they just destroyed formal national military units but left a seething population in the rear of their advancing units. Everyone should be very careful when dealing with these maps because they tell a false story. Every major invasion in the 21st century by a national military has been overturned by insurgent forces, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 had the US fleeing by 2009 as casualties were causing serious dissension in the country alongside the economic implosion, Iraq got dropped like a sack of shit. Afghanistan also was overturned in under a week after the US finally capitulated and left. I see no reason why Ukraine wont follow the same format.

This is why I think, in a way, Putin already lost this war. The Ukrainian will to fight is extremely high, and Zelenskiy has by now become a very effective rallying symbol for both Ukrainian and the world for this war. And the effectiveness of a rallying symbol (like Zelenskiy) in a war can't be underestimated, especially in a defensive war like this. One of the reason for my country's independence was because our first president was such an effective symbol the different ethnicities and groups were united as one against our former colonial master. I'm beginning to see the same thing here for Zelenskiy

And even if the Russian managed to take Kyiv and capture Zelenskiy, then what? There's still going to be a huge ass country where its population hate them so much, and other governments that are willing to supply these people into deadly insurgency. Jailing, killing, or anything they could do to Zelenskiy will only make him a martyr, making the resistance even stronger

Any puppet government they put in Ukraine is going to collapse in no time. This is why I'm leaning to call the supposedly confession of a Russian agent as true, simply because he also wrote that the Russian doesn't have anyone that they could effectively use to prop up as puppet there for a long time

I can't blame the Ukrainians for digging in, to be fair. If they tried to do strategic maneuvers they'd get fucked. Unfortunately I don't think the Russians would post destroyed Uke convoys and broken down vehicles but that wouldn't mean it didn't happen.

Yeah, this is a defensive war by nature for the Ukrainian, the only thing they can do (for now) is just digging in and defended as much territory and facilities as possible. The only form of attacks they can do now are either ambush or insurgency, simply because I don't think they have resources and manpower to spare if their offensive failed

That said, the same thing also applies for the Russian. They wouldn't be able to stop and consolidate their forces that long because the longer this war continues, the more the country would suffer economically. That's why they can only attack, no matter what, hence why we're seeing advances upon advances despite the undeniable failure and casualties, both in men and vehicles

The longer they can hold up the Russian, however, the more they have the chance to strike back so long as the supplies from the West keeps pouring in and their new soldiers gain experience in combat. I think this is why Zelenskiy keep publicly begging for outlandish supplies. He probably knew the West won't give him any expensive new toys, and will only gave him spares instead. But I think that's what the Uks probably aime here, the West has to keep the supply train going

@Feline Supremacist biolabs in america in plain site is a lot different than having your "aids to infect the children of russia and have their eyes bleed and explode" labs in plain site within walking distance of the enemy. i will never ever agree with the idea that the russians didnt idiotically make up a lie that betrayed their idiotic obsession with border proximity for weapons and forms of warfare that are not benefited by and actually are greatly hindered by that type of proximity even.

If the US can lie all the damn time about their justification for war, like Iraq WMD, then why couldn't Russian and China just lie as well? The very rejection of this idea is something that I always find laughable from those who tried to defend Russia in this war

 

[L50LasPak]

I'm guessing "Obvious shills" means people strongly defending either Russia or Ukraine.

This is incorrect. You have the right to be as pro-Ukraine or pro-Russia as you want. Aggressive shilling and suspiciously copypasta-like, preformatted posts with links to established propaganda sources are what will tip me off to shilling, as well as people trying to obviously start shit in this thread. This extends somewhat to blatant nationalism. Fedposting is not the only thing that glows in the dark.

 

[B_mizz]

The problem with most of these maps is that it draws WW2 style "lines" when they're entirely obsoleted forms of measurement. This one is "closer" to reality but I still don't like the vast coloring down by the Crimea. This war is almost certainly going to be dictated by the vast amount of insurgents that plague Russia over the course of months or years and its important to note that Russia doesn't really control every little village and town in the countryside, they just destroyed formal national military units but left a seething population in the rear of their advancing units. Everyone should be very careful when dealing with these maps because they tell a false story. Every major invasion in the 21st century by a national military has been overturned by insurgent forces, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 had the US fleeing by 2009 as casualties were causing serious dissension in the country alongside the economic implosion, Iraq got dropped like a sack of shit. Afghanistan also was overturned in under a week after the US finally capitulated and left. I see no reason why Ukraine wont follow the same format.

View attachment 3053862

This map is just cope for people hoping Ukraine could somehow win this. It doesn't even show Izium being close to to Russian lines, though it currently under attack by the Russians.

 

[Pharaoh Fungus]

Anybody want to take bets on how long before Putin launches the nukes?

 

[Mussi]

The rail line from Crimea to Melitopol suggests that the Russkies' supply situation is bound to improve to the East. Been ages since I saw an armored train.

I think Mariupol will have to fall before we really see the effects of that in the southeast. Where I am really curious is the southwest.

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

Feels like the news has slowed down in the past 3 days compared to earlier.

Its hidden away in Telegram channels, just random groups of Ukrainians firing ATGM on isolated tanks and APC alongside Russian bombardments of Ukrainian positions, both military and civilian because the Ukrainians hide inside anything with a roof. The main focus is on Kiev but ultimately when it kicks off there will be a lot of footage of dead civilians and soliders, it will end with "Russian victory" and we will return to this "slow" stage of insurgency, this isn't even counting in the fact that the Western half of Ukraine is rapidly anti-Russia compared to the current areas of action.

Tucker covered the war today and basically he is right that we got many cocksuckers who want war with Putin anyways.

I find that this segment, and most of Tucker's material to be almost exactly what I am thinking. I notice he showcased the same video of Lindsey Graham and John McCain from 2016 that I posted today. I don't follow his show, I only watch his monologues when they're directly linked to me like so but I think his writers must be operating in the same circles as I am because almost every single item in that clip is something I have talked about recently or believe. It makes me seriously evaluate whether or not my opinions are being sculpted in some manner but I can't really determine how this would be, I don't browse Twitter, Facebook or any other algo driven webpage. I host my own stuff, whether it be a Nitter instance, Pleroma instance or Matrix and I tend to only value raw source material.

You need good terrain and the right kind of population structure to sustain a long-term insurgency, Ukraine has neither.

I doubt this, Yemen, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Ethopia, Colombia, The Sahel and Central Africa. All of these countries and regions had or have active insurgencies and wars that lasted years or decades. It doesn't take much to bomb a rail line or put an IED in the road but the continuous stream of losses will buckle an complex nation state. Take it from an expert who did such a thing:

T.E. Lawrence - Seven Pillars of Wisdom
My mind seesawed back to apply this to ourselves, and at once knew that it
was not bounded by mankind, that it applied also to materials. In Turkey
things were scarce and precious, men less esteemed than equipment. Our
cue was to destroy, not the Turk’s army, but his minerals. The death of a
Turkish bridge or rail, machine or gun or charge of high explosive, was
more profitable to us than the death of a Turk. In the Arab Army at the
moment we were chary both of materials and of men. Governments saw
men only in mass; but our men, being irregulars, were not formations, but
individuals. An individual death, like a pebble dropped in water, might
make but a brief hole; yet rings of sorrow widened out therefrom. We
could not afford casualties.
Materials were easier to replace. It was our obvious policy to be superior in
some one tangible branch; gun-cotton or machine-guns or whatever could
be made decisive. Orthodoxy had laid down the maxim, applied to men, of
being superior at the critical point and moment of attack. We might be
superior in equipment in one dominant moment or respect; and for both
things and men we might give the doctrine a twisted negative side, for
cheapness’ sake, and be weaker than the enemy everywhere except in that
one point or matter. The decision of what was critical would always be
ours. Most wars were wars of contact, both forces striving into touch to
avoid tactical surprise. Ours should be a war of detachment. We were to
contain the enemy by the silent threat of a vast unknown desert, not
disclosing ourselves till we attacked. The attack might be nominal, directed
not against him, but against his stuff; so it would not seek either his
strength or his weakness, but his most accessible material. In
railway-cutting it would be usually an empty stretch of rail; and the more
empty, the greater the tactical success. We might turn our average into a
rule (not a law, since war was antinomian) and develop a habit of never
engaging the enemy. This would chime with the numerical plea for never
affording a target. Many Turks on our front had no chance all the war to
fire on us, and we were never on the defensive except by accident and in
error.

The Afghans didn't challenge the US forces directly, they dominated the countryside, often times when American forces would walk into a village and begin speaking to villagers the Taliban would just fire over the village with a rifle to let them know they were being watched. The whole village would clam up and play false faced to the US forces until they left and then the Taliban would go back to administering the village. People seem to think that irregular forces mass up and fight massive columns armored columns and tanks, this is not the case. Its the heavy bleeding caused from nonstop attrition, lone Humvees getting shot to shit, IED flipping and killing people in a MRAP, sniping a guy while he is on guard duty and disappearing. The Taliban knew it was impossible to handle the US military outside of extremely constrained environments like the Operation Redwings screwup so they just employed mines, same with Al Qaeda in Iraq, every time they fought it out like in Fallujah during Phantom Fury it was a disaster, the more detached they were with the mines and sniping the more effective their strategy became.