War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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Like others have already remarked, it's bold to assume that Russian army would have any better medical equipment than their public civilian side. I'm guessing that morphine, vodka and bone-saws are about the height of their field medicine. And actually having morphine when needed is probably too optimistic(It was sold and/or shot up by the company medic two weeks ago).

I've seen a video recently of military supply trains headed from the Russian Far East, according to the narrator, as resupply, and mixed in among the vehicles are a lot of civilian vehicles. Like, obviously civilian vehicles, including ambulances. It could be the rail carrier optimizing shipping, though. But if they're jacking ambulances to use as combat medical vehicles...that doesn't speak very well to their combat medical logistics.

But then the Russians never have cared about their soldiers. They've always treated them as disposable assets; whether Tsar, Premier or President, they don't seem to give a fuck about them.
 
From what Ukrainian military themselves said, they count by the vehicles. As in, they count the amount of armor and trucks destroyed, how much personnel each is supposed to have, and put them under KIA.

Wishful thinking is assuming Russian soldiers would get the help they need. Some were already put down by their buddies instead of treatment.

Russia does not have a good track record with .mil burials. Even in present day Russia there are not thousands, but hundreds of thousands dead spread wide over the entire territory where fighting took place. Even civilians, to this day periodically stumble on bones dispersed in forests of Ukraine, meanwhile the marshlands in Western Russia are laiden to the top with bodies, guns and munitions from WWII. And this is when 9th May victory parades costs millions, the simple job of digging the bones and giving them a burial is still left to volunteers, largely unfunded by the state.

Even though there was some evidence (which may be dismissed as fake) there is a presence of many unidentified bodies of RF present, lacking in any way any information about them. Supposably the first advanced columns had their simple phones, .mil IDs and even dogtags removed. In terms of Ukrainians, they are very happy to parade any .mil IDs or tags found, especially in the early days to contact relatives and spread information about losses. I don't see how this would benefit them, I can see how this could benefit RF to reduce official losses or perhaps steer the narrative that invasion force was not 100% RF .mil but Ukrainians themselves rising up against "illegal" regime.


The one thing that no one seem to bring up are wounded ... official stats usually concentrate on dead bodies, but arguably, maimed and injured will be a lasting memory, ever present for decades to come. Without a doubt, tens of thousands.


Like others have already remarked, it's bold to assume that Russian army would have any better medical equipment than their public civilian side. I'm guessing that morphine, vodka and bone-saws are about the height of their field medicine. And actually having morphine when needed is probably too optimistic(It was sold and/or shot up by the company medic two weeks ago).

Russian medicine is one thing, but the scale of losses was simply not expected, which leads to dire shortage of medical staff to treat wounded. The first few hours after an injury are absolutely critical to soldier's survival, which is why Sykorsky helis that could evac American soldiers from the front lines quickly were without any exageration a revolution to survival on many GIs in Korea.


When you go to the kitchen to make some borscht and suddenly ...

1647797878807.png



Gnarly airdefense flaming out two planes




Also Germany signs gas deal with Quatar ...



BTW, Qatar isn't the only country competing for EUro gas needs, Azerbaijan is trying hard to supply all their needs as well, as a solid alternative.
 
Too wishful thinking. This is 2022, medical tech and knowledge have advanced quite enough to make death rate lower than previous wars in history. This is even more true when since both combatants are European countries with modern infrastructure and techs, and not some backwater shithole countries
As others have stated - Russia is a backwater shit hole. They have also been targeting Ukrainian hospitals, so no local help for their men either.

In terms of battlefield survival rates - the improvements we see in Western forces will not transpose over to Russian forces in Ukraine. One of primary reasons why it has improved for Western forces is the "Golden Hour". A tourniquet will save your life, but in reality is just delaying death until you can be brought to a treatment facility. Almost all immediate battlefield medicine is like this for traumatic injuries.

The golden hour is reliant on the ability to collect someone who has been wounded and take them, quickly, to an available trauma centre. This at minimum requires a battlefield ambulance if you are close enough to a MOB, but in reality will likely require a Medical Emergency Response Team deploying from a helicopter to your location. To do this consistently you need enough helicopters to deal with the influx of injuries, you need to have air superiority as a minimum or those helos will go down, and you probably need an attack helicopter as an escort too just to be safe.

Russia does not have the ability to operate freely in Ukrainian airspace due to Ukrainian air defences, even if they suppressed those helicopters landing are slow and present a good target for a stinger or other MANPADs. To add to their woes, Russian logistics are a mess - it is difficult to get supplies in, it will be much more difficult to get soldiers out when they are injured. Then we have the sheer numbers of those being injured - even if they could do the above, they wouldn't have the capacity to do it for all of their injured soldiers. I think the Russian junior commanders likely knew this going in, there were those POWs claiming that the injured were being shot rather than left behind. Might be propaganda, but given the rest of the insanity that has come out about the Russia forces I would not be surprised.

Therefore, I would honestly not be surprised if the fatality to casualty ratio is closer to what you would expect in World War 2, rather than a modern war. At least for the Russians, shorter lines of supply would suggest Ukrainians may have slightly better odds - but they are not getting the golden hour either.
 
We should probably just subtitle this thread "And then things got worse..." since things just keep getting worse and worse for Russia.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1505260472492347395?
Looks like a bunch of Belarussians pissed off at how Russia's treating their country took matters into their own hands.
That's got to be really worrying to Putin. Right now he clearly doesn't have the combat power to shore up any friendly dictators in his "Near Abroad" or ex Soviet States, should the locals realize that now would be a good time to finally free themselves of Russia and Russian puppets. Belarus isn't even the scary one. What happens in Chechnya when the locals figure out that all the Putin Friendly Chechen forces are over dying messily in Ukraine?
 
Russia does not have a good track record with .mil burials. Even in present day Russia there are not thousands, but hundreds of thousands dead spread wide over the entire territory where fighting took place. Even civilians, to this day periodically stumble on bones dispersed in forests of Ukraine, meanwhile the marshlands in Western Russia are laiden to the top with bodies, guns and munitions from WWII. And this is when 9th May victory parades costs millions, the simple job of digging the bones and giving them a burial is still left to volunteers, largely unfunded by the state.

Even though there was some evidence (which may be dismissed as fake) there is a presence of many unidentified bodies of RF present, lacking in any way any information about them. Supposably the first advanced columns had their simple phones, .mil IDs and even dogtags removed. In terms of Ukrainians, they are very happy to parade any .mil IDs or tags found, especially in the early days to contact relatives and spread information about losses. I don't see how this would benefit them, I can see how this could benefit RF to reduce official losses or perhaps steer the narrative that invasion force was not 100% RF .mil but Ukrainians themselves rising up against "illegal" regime.


The one thing that no one seem to bring up are wounded ... official stats usually concentrate on dead bodies, but arguably, maimed and injured will be a lasting memory, ever present for decades to come. Without a doubt, tens of thousands.




Russian medicine is one thing, but the scale of losses was simply not expected, which leads to dire shortage of medical staff to treat wounded. The first few hours after an injury are absolutely critical to soldier's survival, which is why Sykorsky helis that could evac American soldiers from the front lines quickly were without any exageration a revolution to survival on many GIs in Korea.


When you go to the kitchen to make some borscht and suddenly ...

View attachment 3090467


Gnarly airdefense flaming out two planes

View attachment 3090470


Also Germany signs gas deal with Quatar ...



BTW, Qatar isn't the only country competing for EUro gas needs, Azerbaijan is trying hard to supply all their needs as well, as a solid alternative.
Lmao at Ukrainians using bathroom sinks in the kitchen
 
I suppose the Kinzhal is a sort of flex, saying in effect that if the Russian infantry, tankman are not always perfect, there's lots of rockets (it's based off the Iskander ground launched missile) on aircraft or which can be launched off the ground, to make it not worth the while of anyone planning intervention.

@NJBear I think the religious identity and skin tint of those 'men' demanding to be let in can be guessed. Why can't Sweden just teach them to get gay with each other?




Kherson airport, Russian equipment destroyed in a Ukrainian attack.

source

Ukie claim of recapturing Cherkasy Tishki and Russian Tishki in the Kharkiv region denied by the Russkies. RT issued a vid with a correspondent there.

source

Claims of capturing territory by either side has to be taken with a grain of salt even with some footage, as that only proves they might be there, but so too might be other side.
 

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There's this whole twitter thread that is semi-interesting, but makes a funky point that Putin is sending over a lot of the police force to Ukraine to be killed that normally help with him enforcing his dominance within Russia.

Makes me curious how safe Putin's grip on power is if he's sending these guys over to die to western armed Ukrainians.
 
Other parties that have been banned include Opposition Bloc, Party of Sharia, Ours, Left Opposition, Union of Left Forces, State, Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine, Socialist party Ukraine, Socialists, and Vladimir Saldo Bloc.
Wait so ebul Zoglensky is removing communists and muslims while baste trad Putin chimps out about Nazis and brings in Chechen rape squads? Why are we supposed to hate Ukraine again?
 
India has helicopter elephants. If that isn't enough to beat China, nothing is.
Real talk tho, the real reason why Trump's "Pacific NATO" didn't go anywhere is that a lot of Nations in Aisa doesn't see the US as a reliable ally in the context of dealing with China, did the west do anything to China besides words when China tries to take the mountains to from India? Nope.

Then there is the problem that China is getting rich because of the US, if China takes Twain and the US does nothing then any hope of gaining allies in the east is gone.
 
Russian MoD just issued a demand to surrender Mariupol until the early morning of 21st.

Chemical weapons next? Glassing?
 

Interesting, and I believe accurate, take on the current status of the war.

Russia's initial campaign has failed in it's objectives. They are getting bogged down and this is likely to result in something of a stalemate.

In my opinion, a stalemate is a losing position for Russia. Besides raiding their backlines, Militia - and likely most of their reservists - are primarily going to be used defensively. If this becomes a stalemate, Ukraine is going to be able to take a lot of these volunteers and train them up to a professional standard in the West of Ukraine which is unthreatened and very large. Plus, from what can be seen the ability of Ukraine to supply and keep supplied it's cities and soldiers is better than Russia. Partly due to them having much shorter lines of supply, none of which runs through hostile country filled with RPGs, AK47s and angry people.

Further to this, while the Russia "strategy" of bombarding a city into surrender works if you amass all your forces against the likes of Grozny, it is not something they are going to be capable of doing across all of Ukraine with sufficient strength to induce a surrender. Maruipol is an example of this, despite being isolated for nearly 3 weeks, despite being outnumbered and bombed into the ground they are continuing to resist. Yes, they are going to fall eventually - but those Russia soldiers have been successfully tied down, exhausted and sustained significant losses. They are not going to be much use on the offensive here after.

There have also been reports that Russia soldiers are engaging in self-mutilation to avoid being sent in to fight, as well as severe shortages of basically everything for Russian troops at the front. Is this really an army that is going to be able to engage in grinding attritional warfare, against a highly motivated Ukrainian military with the full backing of the civilian population, effectively?

They invaded with some 200k soldiers. The fatality figures are between 7-14k, at this point I would not be surprised if the Ukrainian figures were somewhat close to the truth - but we will never know. Take into account fatality-casualty ratios, you can add at the very minimum another 2 times the number of deaths, probably 3 or more though, as casualties. So what, they could be short 30-60k of their original invasion force. Added to this, most of the losses would be sustained by their combat arms, their infantry, paratroopers, marines as they would have been in the thick of it. Even if Russia do want to reinforce them, they have already committed 75% of their high readiness units. Throwing in more with the fucked up logistics would probably achieve little, throwing in their lower quality soldiers would achieve only their deaths.


Also, cool video of Azov IFV taking on a tank and a Russian IFV up close and fucking them with it's 30mm.
I can buy the figures. Especially considering that Russia is sending in conscripts, not well-trained volunteers, into Vietnam-esque conditions that made many American soldiers break. Even the Soviets at the height of their power lost in Afghanistan, and this is even worse.
One of the things that is going to make or break the war for Ukraine is if they can launch a counter-offensive and take back occupied land. I find it improbable, the Ukrainians have been surviving through an excellent defense but their offense will probably see them unable to take back the south or to push into Donetsk and Luhansk. But then again, everyone thought Ukraine would fall in days or a week, so there's always a chance for a surprise. My guess is the stalemate will lead to a ceasefire, but I wouldn't trust the Russians to keep their promises even if Ukraine agreed to be neutral. I have no doubt that Russia would try again in another decade but by then, Ukraine would have learned from their mistakes in the 2010s-2020s and be more prepared for another Russian attack. Assuming the Russians don't have a break through and manage to win this war in a pyrrhic victory.
 
One of the things that is going to make or break the war for Ukraine is if they can launch a counter-offensive and take back occupied land. I find it improbable, the Ukrainians have been surviving through an excellent defense but their offense will probably see them unable to take back the south or to push into Donetsk and Luhansk
They'll never be able to attack or regain the breakaways, but I'm not entirely convinced that counterattacks are entirely necessary. Given how utterly pisspoor the Russian logistics are, both in terms of getting shit to troops on the ground, but also in terms of producing material in the first place, I could see a scenario where holding out long enough forces the Russians to fall back to their pre-war points anyway.
I have no doubt that Russia would try again in another decade but by then, Ukraine would have learned from their mistakes in the 2010s-2020s and be more prepared for another Russian attack. Assuming the Russians don't have a break through and manage to win this war in a pyrrhic victory.
Oh Russia will 100% try again if they fail this time, that's why Putin is shillig so hard for the the demilitiraztion shit, because he knows that if he doesn't take them this time they'll be p[reparing for next time, and it's likely the West will continue to subsidize that build up NATO membership or not.
 
Kamil Kazani substack posted a list of 'pro-Russian and bots spying in Ukraine,' that is Telegram channels. Some like Open Ukraine have the Ukrainian flag but post demoralising news about the Ukrainian effort. The Kamil Kazani twitter is useful, but this Wilson Center staffer or fellow has a clear pro-Ukraine leaning. Still the channels are useful, perhaps more useful than the longwinded bombast of the Kadyrov channel and its Order of the Day style posts, along with that stupid meming with that billionaire Musk.
https://t.me/notes_veterans


@Operational_Officer2_Z_bot

https://t.me/RusTroyka - collect personal info of Ukrainian fighters

https://t.me/panteri_panteri - organising paramilitary groups to go fighting against Ukraine

https://t.me/hackberegini - collecting lists of Ukrainian military, partisans etc

https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia @Zloyrusskiy3_bot

https://t.me/livenec

https://t.me/milinfolive

https://t.me/soldiers_truth

https://t.me/npo_dvina

https://t.me/RtrDonetsk

https://t.me/sashakots

https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov

https://t.me/vladlentatarsky

https://t.me/stepnoy_veter

https://t.me/OpenUkraine

https://t.me/boris_rozhin

https://t.me/martovalieva1

https://t.me/Za_Derjavy

https://t.me/z_kharkovnash

https://t.me/opersvodki

https://t.me/svarschiki

https://t.me/neoficialniybezsonov

https://t.me/margaritasimonyan

https://t.me/rusmonstr

https://t.me/voenacher

https://t.me/orda_mordora

https://t.me/ChDambiev

https://t.me/Soldieroffortune777

https://t.me/opyat22

https://t.me/readovkanews

https://t.me/zola_of_renovation

https://t.me/madam_secretar

https://t.me/anna_news

https://t.me/holmogortalks

https://t.me/RVvoenkor

https://t.me/bbbreaking

https://t.me/rybar

https://t.me/enderovich

https://t.me/pushilindenis

https://t.me/chesnokmedia

https://t.me/DmitriySteshin

https://t.me/yaroslav_belousov

https://t.me/gramotyyaroslava

https://t.me/denisochakovsky

https://t.me/bditelnost

https://t.me/oddr_news

https://t.me/russ_orientalist

https://t.me/chesnokmedia

https://t.me/basenkovvv

https://t.me/krasovkin

https://t.me/SonOfMonarchy

https://t.me/spletnicca

https://t.me/mihailaksel

https://t.me/unitynationnarmy

https://t.me/korobkovtv

https://t.me/mikayelbad
chekaNtoysoldiers.png


Kamil Kazani again, scornful of the Chechens
 
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I respectfully disagree, I'd say that Tsarist Russia was a whole lot like Russia is today, rife with epic corruption, small elite living abroad, large armies made from conscripts and strong brainwashing with religion and imperial idea.

Corruption was so insane that it's hard to even figure out how things worked and who paid whom. Anyone who wants to figure out how Alaska deal was struck, that was super-shady deal with many dark areas not known to this day. When Russians licensed to make Maxim guns, it cost 4x what it did to make them in EU, despite semi-slave labor. Insanity of rejecting anything modern in favour of cheaper, low cost, mass produced arms is spelled out in universally known Levsha fictional story, a fictional brilliant inventor tasked with making bullshit toys to amuse the elites. At the end dude goes insane warning that cleaning rifles with crushed brick ruins the barrels.

Serfdom provided a lot of soldiers, landlords were required to sent x number into army, term of service was 25 years, practically life. In WWI, Russia mobilized over 15 million soldiers ... far greater than any other army and lost far more than any other army as well. Slave conscription + religious fanaticism ("the love of dying for someone is the greatest love" - this is exactly what Putin quoted in his latest speech and many speeches before, but it does not include him) always been the two strongest pillars of Russian military.

The fractured society of super rich socialites, who lived in France and UK, come to their plantations for the summer, some could not even speak Russian ... this is exactly what's happening now. Even in latest Tsarist Russia, middle class was absolutely dismal, meanwhile in EU and US that was the engine that drove people, economic opportunity. In today's Russia, unless you are elite, if you have a brain, you leave Russia and work elsewhere. What remains is 90% dumb peasants, mostly illiterate or in today's terms, something like 5% of Russians read diverse opinions from multiple sources other than idiot box and can use VPN.


I'm not trying justify commies, in fact I'd rather see in 1991 that all of them were French revolutioned ... but Soviets did manage far stronger and more modern institution that Tsarist Russia was and Putin's Russia is, mostly thanks to keeping everyone North Korea poor and funneling all the money to military instead of oligarch pockets.

And this is one fear that I have about China. I hope Russia is not used to compare to China (it being a paper tiger). At the end of the day, massive army of dumb conscripts is still steamrolling and Ukraine bleeds hard. I think that they will win, but ultimate economic and human cost is going to be horrific.
I love when people say the u.s.s.r was only slightly worse than Imperial Russia undesign Nicholas the second the economy was actually improving faster and there was more money deposit in Russian Banks the problem with Rush of during the turn of the century it wasn't as industrializes the rest of European powers
It also is really stupid of them to Ally with Great Britain and France instead of the traditional Ally of Germany
 

Australia Boosts Aid to Ukraine; Whitehaven to Supply Coal​

  • Canberra will send defense material, humanitarian assistance
  • Australia is also banning exports of alumina to Russia

Australia is stepping up military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine to assist in its war against Russia, including 70,000 tonnes of thermal coal.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government will offer an additional A$21 million ($15.6 million) of military support for Ukraine, including unspecified material from the Australian Defence Force’s stocks. It’s also pledging another A$30 million in humanitarian assistance, according to a government statement Sunday.

Australia and its allies have sought to exert pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt his war against Ukraine. As part of those efforts, Canberra is also imposing a ban on exports of alumina and aluminum ores to Russia, the government said.

Russia gets nearly 20% of its alumina supplies from Australia and the move will limit its ability to produce aluminum, a critical export, the statement added. The Morrison government had previously announced a series of measures targeting Russian banks, government entities, as well as the country’s oligarchs.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd. will supply the coal and arrange for its shipment to Ukraine without impacting existing contracts to other international partners, Morrison said at a press briefing Sunday. The government is working with the company and the Ukrainian and Polish governments to deliver the supplies that are needed before the end of May, the prime minister said.


The assistance will help keep the country’s coal-fired power generators operating and supplying electricity to its power grid.

“It’s our coal, we dug it up, we’ve arranged the ship, we’ve put it on the ship and we are sending it to Ukraine to help power up their resistance and to give encouragement,” Morrison said. “We understand that it can power up to about one million homes.”

The government will meet the cost of the coal and delivery.

The latest aid package for Ukraine joins a previous A$70 million in military commitments as well A$35 million of humanitarian support.
 
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