Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%

  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%

  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%

  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%
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737 MAX Stan Account said:
Is there any reason why the Azovstal holdouts haven't just surrendered yet? They're all dead men and it just a matter of whether Russian Soldiers, Ukrainian executioners or infection/starvation do the deed.
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I think they believe the following

1. Surrender and be put in prison for at least a decade, if not outright shot for alleged nazi connotation (lilely)
2. They believe their own propaganda and expect russians to surrender and retreat anyday soon (unlikely)
3. Ukrainian counterattack will somehow reach and reconquer entirety of a corridor from Zaporozhe to Mariopol (very unlikely)

There are no doubts people willing to surrender, but likely they are afraid for their own skin. Dont want to be seen as a traitor and shot by their own. Its a really shitty situation that is likely perpetuated by few fanatics in command.
 
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Tom Nook's Gloryhole said:
The longest this goes on, the more we'll get gentle pushes from the west towards peace.
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This seems :optimistic:, but maybe?

I assume the US government is just gonna print money and dump ammo on Ukraine until the music stops, whenever that might be. But this war, and all the sanctions, and all the refugees, are very, very bad for Europe and the pain has only just begun. So maybe there's a limit to how long they can stay on Uncle Sam's wild ride toward permanent poverty and massive social unrest to own the Putler.
 
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Volodymyr Zelensky’s fleece sells for £90,000 at Ukraine fundraiser
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Anything goes in love and war, eh? Quite literally.
 
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737 MAX Stan Account said:
Is there any reason why the Azovstal holdouts haven't just surrendered yet? They're all dead men and it just a matter of whether Russian Soldiers, Ukrainian executioners or infection/starvation do the deed.
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Because everyone knows what happens when you surrender to Slavs, Muslims, Hispanic cartels, and African militias.

Also no one really knows what’s happening there.

I’ve seen everything from Russian forces are storming the steel mill as we speak, Azov forces are rotting and starving, and now I’m seeing that Russia is pulling troops out of the region.
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For the first time in its recent history, Russia has announced that it has simulated nuclear attacks against EU and NATO countries.
All indications are that Russia’s political and military leadership has decided to go further in Ukraine, risking the application of the “escalation for de-escalation” doctrine.

Putin’s landmark speech: “The decision has been made” – Public commitment to “lightning attack using nuclear weapons”

“Nuclear simulation from Kaliningrad”
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the nuclear strike was simulated by Iskander-M ballistic systems that park the Kaliningrad pocket.
From there, Russia could hit Poland, Sweden, the Baltic states and Berlin.

According to the statement, Russia has launched “electronic launches” of Iskander mobile ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads near the Russian border with EU members Lithuania and Poland.

“Russian forces have exercised single and multiple strikes against targets such as missile systems, airports, defense infrastructure, military equipment and command posts,” the statement said.

The units involved also carried out “actions in conditions of radioactivity and chemical contamination”…

“We will strike NATO arms transfers”
Yesterday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the Russian army would consider a goal that should be destroyed the transfer of weapons from NATO to Ukraine.

“The United States and NATO continue to send weapons to Ukraine.

“I want to point out that any transfer from NATO to the Ukrainian Army is a legitimate goal and must be destroyed,” said the Russian Defense Minister.

“Drop nuclear”
What is the possibility of escalating a Third World War that is already raging on Ukrainian soil, to nuclear?

On April 25, 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the threat of a nuclear war between Russia and the United States has not disappeared, is real and should not be underestimated.
The next day, on the air of Kremlin’s official propagandist Vladimir Soloviev’s television show, Margarita Simonyan said that in her opinion, President Putin would prefer to use nuclear weapons. in Ukraine rather than losing to it:
“In the end, all this will end with a nuclear strike,” he said.

Two days later, it was also broadcast live on Russian television how the latest generation RS-24 Sarmat ICBM intercontinental ballistic missile could hit the capitals of leading European countries in 106 to 200 seconds. The representative of the LDPR faction in the State Duma, Alexei Zhuravlev, commented:
What is the problem; A “Sarmat” rocket and the British Isles will not exist.

On the same day, April 28, Margarita Simonyan, in her profile on a popular social network, threatened Kyiv with a nuclear strike in response to the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian territory:
“What choice do you give us, idiots?” Complete destruction of the rest of Ukraine? Nuclear strike? ” he said characteristically.

On April 29, Sergei Mironov, leader of the Just Russia faction in parliament, spoke of the possibility of a nuclear attack in the United Kingdom:
“Someone tell Lisa Trace that a Sarmat rocket is enough to destroy the island of Britain.”

On April 30, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed concern that Ukraine might want to acquire a nuclear arsenal, which could pose a deadly threat to Russia.

The conflict is out of control – Russian television: “Putin wiped Britain off the map – fired the torpedo of the” Apocalypse “”..

In the new military doctrine of the Russian Federation, 4 types of armed conflict were identified:..

..Moscow has now included the limited use of nuclear weapons not only in the fourth but also in the THIRD level of the conflict. Its aim is to force the adversary to stop hostilities that have already begun with the threat of further nuclear escalation…

The most shocking finding is that according to Russian dogma, the entire legal basis for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons exists in this conflict.
The question is, will he dare to use nuclear weapons and if so where will he strike.

If Russia does not formally declare war on Ukraine in order to have a legal basis for the use of nuclear weapons.. then there is only one option left:
To strike a NATO weapons convoy first and in case of a counterattack to use nuclear weapons.

The No. 1 target seems to be a “European country” that helps Ukraine.
For example it could be Poland or Romania.

Let us not forget that Russia claims that Ukrainian fighters are taking off from Romanian airports. Through its territory and neighboring Moldova, fuel and lubricants are supplied for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Romanian military may be directly involved in the sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship.

But again, in order for that to happen, Russia must formally declare war on Ukraine, only to later claim that “Romania is helping Ukraine and therefore actively engaged in the war against Moscow.”

Russia is oriented towards such a choice. This is probably why the Iskander-M simulation was chosen.

[source] https://warnews247.gr/prasino-fos-s...rinikou-pligmatos-poia-einai-i-chora-stochos/


If Russia does not formally declare war on Ukraine in order to have a legal basis for the use of nuclear weapons.. then there is only one option left:
To strike a NATO weapons convoy first and in case of a counterattack to use nuclear weapons.

The No. 1 target seems to be a “European country” that helps Ukraine.
For example it could be Poland or Romania.

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They're talking about nukes again. Scary thing is, this scenario seems plausible. When brinkmanship is just another piece on the grand chessboard, and both sides are playing the same game: upping the ante to get the other side to 'shoot first', to justify later retaliation and retribution; well it's only a matter of time before someone slips on that hair-trigger.

Brinkmanship is the practice of trying to achieve an advantageous outcome by pushing dangerous events to the brink of active conflict. The tactic occurs in international politics, foreign policy, labor relations, contemporary military strategy, and high-stakes litigation.

The word 'optics' is over-used and over-played when talking about the game of politics. But for the first time in human history we are looking at the seeds of WWIII as they play out in real time, not just on TV, but on the INTERNETZ. And those INTERNETZ are not just on your TV, they are on your TELEPHONE too!

If this war came about pre internetz, Putin would have shelled the living fuck out of whichever part of Ukraine he thought gave him the most strategic advantage. Without a care in the world. The fog of war would have existed. But it wouldn't have been as all-encompassing as it is now. The disinformation and misinformation is being pumped out 24/7 en masse. But it's still not a magic cloak of invisibility/invincibility. It only takes a couple of videos of the aftermath of that kind of thing and world opinion would be even more against the Ruskies than it is now. What we've already seen has been used as propaganda to turn the world against the Ruskies, and it's done a pretty good job so far.

So Russia knows it's treading a fine line. Nato know this too. Putin probably thought this would be over quickly in a decisive victory, but who knows what he really thought? He probably thought too, that Plan B would be a slow war of Attrition that Russia would also win, it would just take longer, cost more, be more ugly, isolate Russia more on the world stage. But that was a gamble he was prepared to take. Perhaps he didn't think that far. Or this far. But here we all are: war of attrition it is.

I don't pretend to understand military strategy/tactics or world (geo)politics. Let alone one man's mind. I can see Putin isn't stupid. I can see he felt he had no choice to do this. I still disagree with it, but who cares what I think? Who cares what anyone thinks?

It's just that all this talk of nukes is starting to get worrysome. I still don't think it will happen. But if it does, I believe it will be more than a little messy. I don't think once the Big Red Button is pushed it will be limited warfare. The fact they are even considering this as part of their tactics in their wider strategy worries me, brinkmanship or no.

The Russian ambassador to the US just said: guise, guise, you really aren't taking all this nuke talk seriously. If you keep thinking we are bluffing, we will have to nuke you to show that we aren't bluffing - stop messing about guise! (I paraphrase)

“The current generation of NATO politicians clearly does not take the nuclear threat seriously,” ambassador Anatoly Antonov told Newsweek.

While it’s widely believed that a direct war between NATO and Russia would quickly turn nuclear, the danger doesn’t appear to be factored into the Western approach to the war in Ukraine.


The Western campaign clearly risks sparking a direct war with Moscow, prompting Russian officials to warn of the danger of nuclear war. But the US has denounced the Russian warning as saber-rattling and continues to escalate its support for Kyiv. Antonov criticized what he called “a flurry of blatant misrepresentation of Russian officials’ statements on our country’s nuclear policy.”

Antonov reiterated Russia’s stance on the potential scenarios where it would use nuclear weapons. He said they “can be used in response to the use of WMD against Russia and its allies, or in the event of aggression against our country when the very existence of the state is jeopardized.”


Those words seem purposefully vague. I get it that this is just classic brinkmanship and even Britbong Boris has taken part in this little game of charades, as well as certain parts of the US govt.

But brinkmanship was the game they were playing before the US bombed the ever living fuck out of two industrial cities in Nippon.


It's that part in the game when you are playfighting, and the other fella gives you a bloody nose! Then the gloves come off. And all of a sudden it's not a playfight anymore.

An imperfect analogy, but I ken ya ken what I'm saying.

Putin probably is a mad man. But he's not stupid. I don't doubt he's been put in this position. But I get the feeling that for better or worse, no one is pulling his strings. When it comes to Biden and Boris, well, one is clearly literally demented and the other is clearly just a puppet getting high on his own supply of being flattered as being compared to Churchill (his idol).

And let's not even talk about the frogs (never trust the French) or the Krauts (German cucks). Or anyone else. What a heady mixture, what a tinderbox just waiting for a spark.

And let's not even think about the current fuel crisis across the whole world (whichever way or for whatever reason it has come about).

Inflation, food scarcity...

The other day in the Daily Mail they said that Russia had 'stolen' a shit ton of grain from Ukraine. And what they didn't steal they bombed/destroyed. They mentioned the ho ho hols.

And that's when I get worried, when arguably the greatest newspaper on Planet Earth starts trying to give a quick history lesson to its otherwise indifferent readers.


I'm not scaremongering for the nuke option. Pretty sure it's not going to happen. But we've definitely crossed some kind of line in the sand when it's being posited as an ever more likely solution if the other side doesn't play 'nice'.

No one plays nice in war. All kinds of people get dragged in to shit because you're either with us or you're against us!

It might not be WWIII just yet, but I think it's fair enough to call it WW2.5 so far, if for no other reason than the gargantuan propaganda efforts and information warfare being employed - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_warfare

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[SOURCE]

[EDIT]
If you want to learn more about 'MADCOM' - MAchine Driven COMmunications - then here is some further reading:




 
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The U.S. Department of Defense now openly acknowledges that it is training Ukrainians in Germany to fight Russia. Nor did they start doing this when Russia first began its “special operation” in Ukraine in early 2022. The U.S. has in fact been training Ukrainians soldiers since 2015.

So this has been going on for the past seven years. Ever since Poroshenko became president following the ‘Maidan Uprising’ the U.S. has been working to establish a potential new military front on Russia’s western border. Indeed this has its roots even further back, nearly two decades before the Maidan Uprising in fact.

Shortly after the Berlin Wall fell in the early 1990s the Bush administration assured Russian President Gorbachev that NATO would expand “not an inch” eastwards. Of course, since then Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Slovakia, Poland and Slovenia have all joined the NATO alliance. To compound matters the US is now arming and training Ukrainians to fight Russia too.

Ukrainian service personnel unpack US supplied Javelin anti-tank missiles. Click to enlarge

For many Russians this must seem like a complete double-cross. As if to confirm that impression the U.S. has ramped up the training it is providing Ukraine’s military. It is now training more than 200 Ukrainians how to use and train others to use the M777 Howitzer, a 10,000-pound heavy hitter. The objective is that they will train others when they return to the front and the M777 Howitzers are delivered as part of a multi-billion dollar U.S. military aid package to Ukraine.




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And I've read in a couple of places that Sweden and Finland are going to be applying for NATO membership in a couple of weeks. So I guess it's plausible they actually do that. Doesn't sound like a bluff. More like a softening up for what they are about to do.

I guess the whole world (or Europe-centric) is consolidating against Russia.

I wonder if they actually will. I wonder if Russia will do half of what it's said it will do if this comes about. It's not like they will be denied, not now - I think this is gonna happen.

Some people are gonna look like pussies if they don't carry out some of the threats they've made. And there's been plenty of threats. Not least by Russia who have made it perfectly clear they find this 'unacceptable' and will retaliate in kind, not least by moving nukes to the Baltic.

There we are, nukes again!

Not wanting to look like a pussy is how a lot of wars and street-fights start. Some men would rather die or risk death than losing face.

Sweden and Finland agree to submit Nato applications, say reports​

Two countries could apply for membership simultaneously as soon as mid-May, according to reports



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Russia threatens to move nukes to Baltic region if Finland, Sweden join NATO​

BRUSSELS — Russia warned Finland and Sweden on Thursday that if they join NATO, Moscow will reinforce the Baltic Sea region, including with nuclear weapons.
The threat came a day after Finnish officials suggested that their country could request to join the 30-member military alliance within weeks and as Sweden mulled making a similar move.



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Russia warns of nuclear weapons in Baltic if Sweden and Finland join Nato

Lithuania plays down threat, claiming Russians already have such weapons in Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad



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Russia already has nuclear weapons in the Baltic region, says Lithuania​


VILNIUS, April 14 (Reuters) - Russia already has nuclear weapons in the Baltic region, Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anusauskas said on Thursday.

One of Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest allies warned NATO on Thursday that if Sweden and Finland joined the U.S.-led military alliance then Russia would have to bolster its defences in the region, including by deploying nuclear weapons. read more

Anusauskas told Lithuania's BNS wire that nuclear weapons have been deployed in Russia's Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea since before the current crisis.


 
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@K-Hole, your post about Russian nuke threats is too long to quote.
When I mentioned Russia's brinksmaship being similar to North Korea's in my previous post I was exaggerating a bit. Looks like Russians are getting closer and closer to NK's status, and increasingly desperate. I don't think nukes will cross any borders, because that at best guarantees upsetting absolutely everyone, including China.
At most Russia will fire a rocket into the sea or conduct nuclear weapons tests. Pretty much do what the North Korea is doing these days.

Chinggis Khan said:
Whether you like it or not, negotiating (or even collaborating) with the Russians is the only thing that could possibly save the existence of Ukraine. The west is not exactly into the whole “preservation of nation-states”
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How come is west not interested in preservation of nation states? Maybe I am misinformed, but it seems to be more committed to it than Russia or China. Russia is straight up invading neighbors, annexing territories, slowly incorporating Belarus into Russian Federation, and denied Chechen their independence. China is squashing down any autonomy regions like Xinjiang, Tibet, or Hong Kong had and is eyeing Taiwan. Last time the U.S. got involved in a conflict that that resulted in maps being redrawn, world ended up with additional countries afterwards.
There are only three power brokers in the world right now: US, China, and Russia. Everyone else has to align with one of them. No matter how I look at it, the American leash is far longer and looser than Chinese or Russian ones.

Borscht said:
Poland is making belligerent Polish noises.

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That sounds like Russian state's propaganda. Now it's Poland's turn to be the boogeyman. Scandinavians or Baltics are going to be next. Then it will be back to the U.S., UK, and NATO.
Why would Poland even want western Ukraine? It would only be a burden. The region would have to be developed, and that's expensive. It does not have enough natural resources to be even remotely worth it. No strategic utility either. Taking it would be a suicide on the international stage, and having territories that are mostly settled by Ukrainians would not be good for Poland's stability. Taking Lviv would only cause friction with Ukraine, a potential business partner and an ally against Russia.
It would be much more beneficial for Poland to make Ukraine its business partner. After the war Poland could get involved in rebuilding Ukraine. Construction, logistics, and other Polish industries would make good money and maybe even avoid upcoming recession, kind of like they dodged the one in 2008. Afterwards, Ukraine could be a source of cheap labor and natural resources, an export market, and provide access to the Black Sea if war goes well for them. If Ukraine were to join the EU, Poland could emulate the strategy Germany used in early 2000s during EU's eastward expansion. That would let Poland fill the void U.K. left and become an equal to France and Germany.

Too many Russians are stuck in the 19th century imperial mindset, thinking that land coverage and natural resources are the most important. Only other countries with that sort of mentality are Middle Eastern petrol states and African resource extraction economies. It's very short sighted, as proper investment into citizens, infrastructure, and foreign relations can get around geographical disadvantages.
 
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GoPro said:
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Why would Poland even want western Ukraine? It would only be a burden.
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because there area historical disputes over that territory that go back centuries.
poland isn't actually pressing any claims though, polish position in this war so far has been 100% pro ukraine and 200% anti russia, which is why king vatnik is so mad at them.
either way, pressing claims on ukr territory would be nonsensical from a polish perspective. first, there are basically no poles living there anymore, it's all ukrainians, so incorporating the area into poland would be a nightmare.
and second, the poles know that forceful annexiation of foreign territory is a major taboo for both NATO and the EU, both of which are institutions that poland is very dependent on.
 
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GoPro said:
@K-Hole, your post about Russian nuke threats is too long to quote.
When I mentioned Russia's brinksmaship being similar to North Korea's in my previous post I was exaggerating a bit. Looks like Russians are getting closer and closer to NK's status, and increasingly desperate. I don't think nukes will cross any borders, because that at best guarantees upsetting absolutely everyone, including China.
At most Russia will fire a rocket into the sea or conduct nuclear weapons tests. Pretty much do what the North Korea is doing these days.
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Yeah, I'm with you. Pretty much agree.

I was just bored and posting some info I found that I thought some people might find interesting.

Fuck knows how all of this will turn out. Probably not a nuclear exchange, that's for sure!
 
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DumbDude42 said:
because there area historical disputes over that territory that go back centuries.
poland isn't actually pressing any claims though, polish position in this war so far has been 100% pro ukraine and 200% anti russia, which is why king vatnik is so mad at them.
either way, pressing claims on ukr territory would be nonsensical from a polish perspective. first, there are basically no poles living there anymore, it's all ukrainians, so incorporating the area into poland would be a nightmare.
and second, the poles know that forceful annexiation of foreign territory is a major taboo for both NATO and the EU, both of which are institutions that poland is very dependent on.
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Not to mention, even if Poland didn't like Ukraine at all, the enemy of my enemy is my friend and all that. Poland might have historical reasons to dislike Ukraine due to territory disputes, but Poland hates Russia thanks to modern issues, like spending most of the past 80 years under de facto occupation from a government that is seen as the predecessor to Russia.
 
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