Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Climaxing Sunset]

The Ukraine war has demonstrated that Russia is a paper Tiger with extensive corruption even in its military. I’m shocked to see them struggle this much against a third world shithole like Ukraine

 

[CuzinEd]

Another Russian Frogfoot down outside of Donesk city.

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Is that a new one or the same one I saw the video of the other day? I believe it's the 30th Su-25 shot down. I heard Russia is no longer producing them. What they have now is all they have left. I wonder if they get short on aircraft will they start rolling out older ones? But I think the Su-25 was a completely new type of plane for the Russians when they were testing it in Afghanistan in the 80's.

Did you watch the video all the way through? He covers that and goes over his methodology. He was not just counting hulls.

Though you aren't wrong, I'd like to see a sort of Bayesian breakdown of "We have a high confidence of operational status for this group, low confidence for this group".

Something else to consider is even if the turrets on these tanks are completely rusted out, if there are engine/hull compoents they might still be extremely valuable to Russia's war effort. I'm really curious about what the recovery rate for both sides looks like.



I'm withholding any judgement except to laugh at Vatniks trying to edit the casualty figures and claim they only lost 8 helicopters.

Only thing I will promise you is this not a military-internal document. This is too slick to be military Death-by-powerpoint; most of the slides have the wrong information density. It should either be a million figures crammed together into a unreadable mess, or one fact per page/map. The weather map is only one that I'd believe came from the US military. Maybe the force training graph, but the middle part is far, far too useful.
(OTOH: Its been a long time since I've needed to endure the finest slides highschoolers can produce. They may have updated templates.)

If real, I think this is something given to brief... like Sweden's Parlement, and probably created by a non-uniformed entity.

No, I didn't watch the whole video. My internet kept going in and out. I got tired of having to unplug the modems power cord to get it to work for 2-3 minutes.

Lots of this:

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Followed by this:

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Followed by more of this again, ad naseaum:

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Imagine you are some kind of mouth breathing basement dwelling autistic retard and you have sat around staring into the abyss too long. You start believing Russian propaganda. especially about how strong Russia is. The Western media doesn't help with it's constant fear mongering about Russia. You start to believe all the cringey trad Christian Russia nonsense as well. Then start thinking Russia will save you. Then Russian invades Ukraine and you think "wow Putin is doing it he is actually going to save me". But instead the Russians spend the next year getting their asses handed to them in a brown paper bag by Ukraine.

You would be crushed. You spiral into a hysteria of hope and cope. When you aren't hoping you are coping and when you aren't coping you are hoping.

This is the sad life of your average vatnigger.

It really do be like that. Someone went through the trouble of collecting the predictions of one vatnigger (200K+ subscribers) over a 5 month period.

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Years ago, there was this Star Wars text crawl thing I used to mess around with, and you could make it say anything. It had the music and everything. I think it was on the Star War soundboard.

Armored vehicles don't do well exposed to the elements. Particularly once the seals and gaskets eventually fail. Ironically the best thing they could have done with those vehicles is even if they had to leave the hulls outside, remove the power packs, final drives, key parts from the turret, and at least put them into storage (or more likely sell them on the black market).

The fact that there's still no sign of the Turbine equipped T-80's makes me think they're all fucked. Constantly going back to the Soviet area scrap heaps is going to show diminishing returns.

If the had any sense they'd do a quick design for a low end armored vehicle, that could be produced in quantity. If they kept the weight down, they'd be able to produce it in smaller factories.

I think there were some T-80's used in Ukraine. I know the 1st guards tank army was sent to Ukraine and they only use T-80's. Which debunks the vatnigger cope that Russia wasn't sending it's best. The 1st guards tank army is what the Soviets would have sent up against the US and NATO. It's an elite Russian tank unit or it was.

So are the Abrams out in the Sierra Army Depot with their Honeywell AGT1500 gas turbine engines similarly fucked, or are their engines removed and placed in storage?

Probably not. Being out in the dry heat in a dessert is a lot better than being in a place with a lot of moisture. Like someone else said the US military keeps its vehicles maintained with regular checks and things like that. Russia didn't do that because they were broke for a long time.

 

[teriyakiburns]

Considering Ukraine's long history of corruption and Hunter Biden's role in things as proven by his laptop, I wonder if this whole war is ongoing is because Ukraine blackmailed Biden into supporting them otherwise they would publish all of his family's dirty laundry?

They weren't worried about it. Nearly everyone was convinced that Russia would roll the whole country in a matter of months, if not weeks, and were preparing for an insurgency campaign at most.

Given biden's pre-war statements, effectively that Russia could nibble chunks of Ukraine and the US wouldn't intervene, I'm fairly certain that Joe and co had contingencies in the event Russia found anything compromising in Kiev. "Russia hoax" is a well-worn catchphrase of that side of the US media-political class. It was only the abject failure of the initial invasion that prompted the west to take a more aggressive stance. Even then, the US was not in the forefront, but only followed in the wake of eastern Europe and the British.

 

[Super Saiyan Hitler]

The irony is the most fervent vatnik Russians in the retard thread refuse to join the Russian military in what is likely to be the most pivotal conflict for their country in their lifetimes while insisting victory is right around the corner. I guess seeing their CSGO buddies face down in a trench on telegram isn't encouraging for recruitment.

And to make it even worse, the Kremlin calls it a defensive war, and I have yet to see a vatnigger disagree with that assessment. According to Russian and batshit insane Western vatnigger propaganda, this is just a short list of Ukraine's crimes:

* Bombing 6 million kids in the Donbas
* Genociding Russian speakers by forcing schoolchildren to learn the national language
* Electing the Jewish Nazi Reichsführer Zelensky
* Ditto, but this time, Zelensky and Azov are fake Nazis and need to be killed by real nationalists from Russia
* Biolabs that were developing weapons to kill Russians
* Secretly preparing a genocidal offensive against the totally legitimate Donbas separatists
* Secretly preparing an invasion of Russia itself
* Ditto, but this time Ukraine had allowed NATO divisions to participate in the imminent invasion of Russia
* Committing acts of terrorism in Russia... after the invasion
* Calling the capital city Kyiv instead of Kiev

You would have to be an exceptionally shameless coward to be anywhere but the front if this is what you believe. Especially when there is no danger at all to Russian soldiers.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

The irony is the most fervent vatnik Russians in the retard thread refuse to join the Russian military in what is likely to be the most pivotal conflict for their country in their lifetimes while insisting victory is right around the corner. I guess seeing their CSGO buddies face down in a trench on telegram isn't encouraging for recruitment.

It's hilarious, really. I called out one of them at some point saying exactly that, it's historic moment for the country and if he feels so strong about the war, then it's his time to join. Of course the faggot started backpedalling and making excuses - he's helping in other ways, you see. By fervently posting on this forum I guess, what a hero.
I can understand people who doesn't want the war fleeing it, it makes sense. But if you're in favor of it, then what the fuck?

Russian shill & gun/miltuber "Big Caliber Trouble" (Крупнокалиберный Переполох) tries sending a Carl Gustav rocket/shell through an expended AT-4 tube.
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Spoiler: It does not go as planned.

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Spoiler: Video

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I've posted some of his more interesting/relevant videos in previous thread incarnations; although he's likely funded & given direction by the FSB and/or MoD (or even Wagner), he still makes content with a lot of Russian stuff we don't get to see on US gun/miltube channels.

You don't get access to this sort of shit WITHOUT being an MoD shill.

 

[ATandTism]

The Ukraine war has demonstrated that Russia is a paper Tiger with extensive corruption even in its military. I’m shocked to see them struggle this much against a third world shithole like Ukraine

Makes you wonder how overhyped China is with things heating up around Taiwan.

Unstoppable yellow zerg, or uncoordinated bugmen?

 

[Vince McMahon]

I can understand people who doesn't want the war fleeing it, it makes sense. But if you're in favor of it, then what the fuck?

You see, if you don't want to turn the country of your origin into one single LDPR or even Bucha - then you're a chickenhawk.

If you are in favour of ethnic cleansing and population displacement and indiscriminate killing - then it's based and tradpilled (but if you suggest to do that to Russians, then suddenly you're a heartless bastard, no double standards there, no).

 

[CaptainAutism69]

Zelenskyy put the Azov Bn back in their box early on in the War. The fact that he shut down a protest by the wives and families of the unit (trying to get him to agree to prisoner exchanges) shows that he's not afraid of them

They earned a reputation in 2014 for being of the few units that would actually fight, and in fairness to Zelenskyy he didn't thrown them under the bus when he came to power. Poroshenko had already rolled them into the Army and shut down their little independent fiefdom. So Zelenskyy standing by them (to an extent) made him look magnanimous rather than weak. In fact standing up to western media pressure about them probably helped show the public that he will say no to west.

When Zel came to power he went to Donbass and ordered the militia there to withdraw so that he could get down to making right by his promise to end the fighting and have peace. They told him to GTFO, then he started getting death threats and ratings started to crater. I don't think he forgot that, and Mariopol was a convienient way to get rid of the core of the extremists; he followed this up by going after the person who funded them, and thought he was Zelensky's puppet master; that fat fuck and theif Ihor.
I doubt Z is too scared of Azov now after the nutjob element was decimated. Azov now seems to be less mental sig heil, and more like a batallion that inherited the name which kinda works for internal propaganda.

 

[Absurdist Laughter]

China is with things heating up around Taiwan.

China is objectively more scary than Russia. Yeah, they may have economic problems but I do think it is a controlled burn. China is very good at using leverage to their advantage, something this administration absolutely sucks at. It is in China's tactics of espionage and information gathering that should not be slept on. They use this information to manipulate deals or coerce others into obedience. I wonder if China has learned anything from the Korean Bill Hwang and how dangerous leverage can be. What leverage do they have over the USA? Everything you like to purchase anywhere in the big, glorious mall that is the United States of America is made by China.

 

[AgendaPoster]

Dmitry Medvedev(Former President of Russia) went on a long rant against Ukraine on Twitter. Twitter link

It's quite interesting how Elon's Twitter is run, a colonialist state that has openly attacked civil targets, apartment buildings, energy infrastructure during winter to try and freeze its opponent's civilians, with politicians and media that consistently and constantly call for the erasure and genocide of an entire nation - is allowed to have its main figures on the platform without any measures against it.
Shitpost against some niggertrannyfaggot, and it's still goodbye account. Mock some cuckservative celebretard, goodbye account. Mock Jews, gone, shitpost the Rael cult symbol, GONE.
Elon is incredibly suspicious.

 

[Cpt. Stud Beefpile]

It's quite interesting how Elon's Twitter is run, a colonialist state that has openly attacked civil targets, apartment buildings, energy infrastructure during winter to try and freeze its opponent's civilians, with politicians and media that consistently and constantly call for the erasure and genocide of an entire nation - is allowed to have its main figures on the platform without any measures against it.
Shitpost against some niggertrannyfaggot, and it's still goodbye account. Mock some cuckservative celebretard, goodbye account. Mock Jews, gone, shitpost the Rael cult symbol, GONE.
Elon is incredibly suspicious.

Some of that is because advertisers are abandoning Twitter and people who paid for the blue check are pissed AF because of his stupid handling of it. His constant flailing around of how to handle funding the thing he obviously wanted to turn into his personal 4chan is embarrassing to watch.

Elon is learning the Trump lesson: no one single individual is so rich or powerful that they can do wtf-ever they want; this is not the 1600s where a big enough pile of gold lets you turn on Godmode IRL.

The restrictions you mentioned are hard bows to reality. He CANNOT allow total free speech like he thought he could and it's clear he's still not quite learned the lesson that being a techbro genius with a stack-o-cash doesn't make you immune from the gayfia, ZOG, or the Democrat machine.

 

[Greggs]

* Bombing 6 million kids in the Donbas
* Genociding Russian speakers by forcing schoolchildren to learn the national language
* Electing the Jewish Nazi Reichsführer Zelensky
* Ditto, but this time, Zelensky and Azov are fake Nazis and need to be killed by real nationalists from Russia
* Biolabs that were developing weapons to kill Russians
* Secretly preparing a genocidal offensive against the totally legitimate Donbas separatists
* Secretly preparing an invasion of Russia itself
* Ditto, but this time Ukraine had allowed NATO divisions to participate in the imminent invasion of Russia
* Committing acts of terrorism in Russia... after the invasion
* Calling the capital city Kyiv instead of Kiev

Also don’t forget these 50k secret polish mercenaries armed to the teeth with newest NAFO equipment which were erradicated when russians blew up that one barn.

 

[Melmac_Knight]

even though Prigozhin planted a flag in a glowie building and pronounced Bachmut captured I am unable to collect my winnings from the betting market over "Bachmut capture", they say "its not captured yet retard" so once again I am predicting the war over Bachmut to end by next week, my source: trust me bro

 

[AgendaPoster]

Some of that is because advertisers are abandoning Twitter and people who paid for the blue check are pissed AF because of his stupid handling of it. His constant flailing around of how to handle funding the thing he obviously wanted to turn into his personal 4chan is embarrassing to watch.

Elon is learning the Trump lesson: no one single individual is so rich or powerful that they can do wtf-ever they want; there are forces in the world that can and will stop you, this is not the 1600s where a big enough pile of gold lets you turn on Godmode IRL. That shit just will not fly in the modern world.

The restrictions you mentioned are hard bows to reality. He CANNOT allow total free speech like he thought he could and it's clear he's still not quite learned the lesson that being a techbro genius with a stack-o-cash doesn't make you immune from the gayfia, ZOG, or the Democrat machine.

Ok, then why allow any genocidal state propaganda, which is also consistent with said state's military actions, if it's so unacceptable to "be evil and hateful" on social media?
If this is a consistent principled measure, states that engage in this should be immediately expelled from the platform, with their media and representatives.
Fine, ban Ye-tards, catboys, wignats - with a victim count of what? Like maybe 100 victims in various WN terror attacks.
How many victims because of Russia's invasion? Hundreds of thousands. Who massed its tanks inside the borders of another sovereign nation? Russia.
Zero consistency from Elon.
Even the much progressive Dems are not demanding Russia's official accounts expelled. They dilated and seethed like MAD to get daddy Blompf removed. But for some reason, they prefer to cry about Matt Walsh and hell knows who else who mocked Dylan Mulvaney or something, instead of demanding that Elon removes the people responsible for most deaths and suffering from his platform.
All of this stinks and is suspicious to me.

 

[Koko Jambo]

Some of that is because advertisers are abandoning Twitter and people who paid for the blue check are pissed AF because of his stupid handling of it. His constant flailing around of how to handle funding the thing he obviously wanted to turn into his personal 4chan is embarrassing to watch.

Elon is learning the Trump lesson: no one single individual is so rich or powerful that they can do wtf-ever they want; there are forces in the world that can and will stop you, this is not the 1600s where a big enough pile of gold lets you turn on Godmode IRL. That shit just will not fly in the modern world.

The restrictions you mentioned are hard bows to reality. He CANNOT allow total free speech like he thought he could and it's clear he's still not quite learned the lesson that being a techbro genius with a stack-o-cash doesn't make you immune from the gayfia, ZOG, or the Democrat machine.

I still don't get over the fact, that adult people buy this childish blue mark check.

 

[Random Internet Person]

 

[Glowie]

Russian progress in south and eastern fronts bogged down to standstill. Bakhmut is still free Wagner is blacklisted in Russia.
Russia's Military is corrupt and can't handle logistics
Military bases and and ammo depos are getting hammered in occupied Crimea.
Russian penal battalions are making a comeback
Russian armata tank is a meme and cold war era tanks are still being used.

War isn't looking good for Russia with Finland and Sweden in NATO as well, former sent volunteers with tanks to Ukraine.

Russia is going to need a miracle to avoid embarrassment and complete societal collapse.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

China is objectively more scary than Russia. Yeah, they may have economic problems but I do think it is a controlled burn. China is very good at using leverage to their advantage, something this administration absolutely sucks at. It is in China's tactics of espionage and information gathering that should not be slept on. They use this information to manipulate deals or coerce others into obedience. I wonder if China has learned anything from the Korean Bill Hwang and how dangerous leverage can be. What leverage do they have over the USA? Everything you like to purchase anywhere in the big, glorious mall that is the United States of America is made by China.

Eeeeeh... I'd say it's a double-edged sword. Don't they depend on it just as much, if not more? Manufacturing could be taken elsewhere if need be, but that would leave China scrambling.
What's going to happen to their economy if they were to stop export to the West? In the shitter, I reckon. For some reason people never account for that when they bring this up.
I don't think China would be willing to do anything of sorts in the foreseeable future.

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

Jomini of the West thread came out a couple days ago. He has nice maps. One thing stood out to me in his assessment of the Donestsk Oblast. He suggests that the Ukrainians might delay an offensive until Summer or Fall if the alternative is ceding much ground in that area.



Twitter thread archive

 

[Ghostse]

Eeeeeh... I'd say it's a double-edged sword. Don't they depend on it just as much, if not more? Manufacturing could be taken elsewhere if need be, but that would leave China scrambling.
What's going to happen to their economy if they were to stop export to the West? In the shitter, I reckon. For some reason people never account for that when they bring this up.
I don't think China would be willing to do anything of sorts in the foreseeable future.

Sort of. China going to economic war with the US is mutually assured destruction but the US is more likely to bounce back quicker.
If the EU is given a choice of bailing out the US economy with 50 trillion dollars or actually training and funding their armies to be able to counter-balance Russia, they will sign the checks. Lots of companies are also looking at new hubs in India, Africa, and Vietnam to counter their reliance on china.

The chinese economy grinding to a halt will pull all that prosperity from the middle class. And while they are disarmed bugcucks, there are a lot of them. The regeime that tries it will not last long.

Jomini of the West thread came out a couple days ago. He has nice maps. One thing stood out to me in his assessment of the Donestsk Oblast. He suggests that the Ukrainians might delay an offensive until Summer or Fall if the alternative is ceding much ground in that area.

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Twitter thread archive

I don't think he's wrong, but his sourcing on that is pretty much "Trust me bro". Might as well be saying some HIMARS were destroyed.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't any action by Ukraine until Fall; we didn't see Kharkiv until September. There isn't much reason to rush in (ha!) and given that Kharkiv was timed to ensure the conditions for the assault with minimum time for Russian response.

I mean other than that Russia will be closing that CULDRON any time.