Tismguide
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Feb 24, 2020
Given this petition shows up right after the legal fund I'm guessing it was not done for free. While the odds of certiorari are only 1% or so, SCOTUS also reverses and remands, without hearing arguments, a bit more than that, as per https://ballotpedia.org/SCOTUS_case_reversal_rates_(2007_-_Present) . So I'd put the odds of them doing anything at all at 2.3%, including "bad" outcomes like sentencing Null to death for "hate", though I refuse to believe SCOTUS will affirm this ruling rather than just ignoring it.
Something I've learned from the troons targeting this site is that if you want to win, you don't just attack on the most promising front, you attack on as many fronts as possible constantly, probing for a weak spot you can exploit. The same applies to Null. The cost of this petition was the lawyer hours to prepare it plus the $250 fee to file with SCOTUS. Not cheap by any means, but far cheaper than suing someone for libel. Take as many shots as you can and hope you get lucky.
Of course, for that to work, Null needs us all to be good little paypiggies. As long as he can pay, there are all sorts of things lawyers will do at his direction to make life harder for those who have wronged him until he is made whole. Filing a $10k-$20k (my bs estimate) petition for certiorari with maybe a 2.3% chance of working is the sort of bet you have to take if you want to win. Legal merits matter more than partisan bias in American courts, but you have to pay to play, and as we saw with the 10th, sometimes the bias gets you anyway.
I agree with the poster upthread that SCOTUS might pass on this case because they're waiting for a better set of facts, but I think they're going to have to rule on this circuit conflict eventually. Keep in mind that at this point, simply winning the case at district court is probably Null's most cost effective option, and there's a good chance that if this is granted cert, the case will already be over. Null is doing this to fix copyright law, and it's hard to argue it's in his interest to do so, except insofar as it motivates further donations from people who see he's being more principled and effective than the fucking EFF.
That means that the case isn't really about the farms anymore, and there are powerful entities who have aligned interests on both sides of this decision. As such, I think the usual troon bullshit won't have much bearing on whether SCOTUS grants cert or whether big companies file amicus briefs. If this gets cert, I'd give better than even odds that the EFF and many other entities would offer pro bono representation (and I hope Null spits in their fucking face if they do) for exactly the same reason Digital Justice Foundation represented Greer pro-bono despite him being loathesome and despicable -- it serves their paymasters' interests.
Rather, if this gets cert, and especially if Null wins, I suspect the game plan will simply be to memory hole it, and let it become one more boring SCOTUS case you never hear of if you remain pure and safe in the loving embrace of fact checked news. Not sure how effective that will be given the awful ruling already made one law professor literally say oy vey.
Something I've learned from the troons targeting this site is that if you want to win, you don't just attack on the most promising front, you attack on as many fronts as possible constantly, probing for a weak spot you can exploit. The same applies to Null. The cost of this petition was the lawyer hours to prepare it plus the $250 fee to file with SCOTUS. Not cheap by any means, but far cheaper than suing someone for libel. Take as many shots as you can and hope you get lucky.
Of course, for that to work, Null needs us all to be good little paypiggies. As long as he can pay, there are all sorts of things lawyers will do at his direction to make life harder for those who have wronged him until he is made whole. Filing a $10k-$20k (my bs estimate) petition for certiorari with maybe a 2.3% chance of working is the sort of bet you have to take if you want to win. Legal merits matter more than partisan bias in American courts, but you have to pay to play, and as we saw with the 10th, sometimes the bias gets you anyway.
I agree with the poster upthread that SCOTUS might pass on this case because they're waiting for a better set of facts, but I think they're going to have to rule on this circuit conflict eventually. Keep in mind that at this point, simply winning the case at district court is probably Null's most cost effective option, and there's a good chance that if this is granted cert, the case will already be over. Null is doing this to fix copyright law, and it's hard to argue it's in his interest to do so, except insofar as it motivates further donations from people who see he's being more principled and effective than the fucking EFF.
That means that the case isn't really about the farms anymore, and there are powerful entities who have aligned interests on both sides of this decision. As such, I think the usual troon bullshit won't have much bearing on whether SCOTUS grants cert or whether big companies file amicus briefs. If this gets cert, I'd give better than even odds that the EFF and many other entities would offer pro bono representation (and I hope Null spits in their fucking face if they do) for exactly the same reason Digital Justice Foundation represented Greer pro-bono despite him being loathesome and despicable -- it serves their paymasters' interests.
Rather, if this gets cert, and especially if Null wins, I suspect the game plan will simply be to memory hole it, and let it become one more boring SCOTUS case you never hear of if you remain pure and safe in the loving embrace of fact checked news. Not sure how effective that will be given the awful ruling already made one law professor literally say oy vey.
