Even that's generous, I'm sure a decent number of the backers wont be going to their LGS to look for other people to play because there's too many "chuds" there.
Absolutely, and I was just lowballing the number of game stores based on the likelyhood that GW only runs 10% of them(it's probably much lower than that, I know at least in my area for a few hundred miles it definitely is) to give TC a best case scenario. It really probably is closer to the 3 that
@Tism the Return II mentioned, maybe even worse.
Then as you mentioned there's the people who won't play because of the "chuds" they're afraid they'll run into but don't actually exist. A portion of people who just got it to have STLs to print and paint. The portion of people in every gaming kickstarter who buy everything and then proceed to do nothing with it. The very tiny number of people who are youtubers or some other equivalent and bought in because it would mean content. The couple thousand weirdos who threw $5 at the kickstarter to receive nothing and just support it(that's damn near 8% of the backers right there).
But somehow after all these years of OPR being shoved in everyone's face and ignored, this is supposed to be what takes off and makes a dent in GWs wallet? LOL.
edit: After getting some food and thinking about this further. There's some additional hurdles involving those 20,000 kickstarter backers. There's going to be some percentage of people that buy into it(and this happens to GW and every other miniature company) get super frustrated trying to learn to paint and give up. There's also going to be another percentage of people(and this also happens with GW and every other mini company) who buy in, paint their stuff, play a handful of games and lose every game, and give up instead of bothering to try and actually get better at the game because miniature wargaming(rank and flank, skirmish, 40k style, etc.) was never an interest of theirs in the first place.
If we subtract the $5 backers, we get 18,323. If we assume even just 10% of the rest of the backers don't bother with the game for any length of time for whatever reason, that number drops to 16,491. Assuming that GW stores are only 10% of game stores world wide and going back to my assumption of 5,000 local game stores that brings us right back to the 3 that
@Tism the Return II mentioned, but that's still in a best case scenario with what seems like a fairly lowballed number for game stores. If that number of stores is actually 7,500 then it puts that at roughly 2 people per store. If I vastly over-estimated the number of stores and it's only 2,500 that's still only 6.5 per store and that only works to be a group of people playing the game assuming they actually all get along, and don't get bored with it in a couple of months.