- Joined
- May 31, 2024
I'm not sure it works like that. It's easier to see if we use something more relatable than a name.There are many pics of the VFA's events. Looks to be about 100 people. maximum. Let's assume 70 of those people were male because vets, men like bars more than women, etc.
That means there was likely to be exactly ONE Nick at the VFA last Monday for Karaoke/Raffle Night.
I'm choosing to believe this one.
Let's use birthdays. Let's say "John's" birthday is 3/31. Statistically 1/365 people have a March 31st birthday. That's a 0.2% chance of any particular person being born on 3/31. Now let's say a person was celebrating their birthday at the VFW on 3/31. It is not valid to conclude that it must be John at the VFW celebrating his birthday because only 0.2% of the population have 3/31 birthdays.
The problem is that information is provided. Knowing that on 3/31 someone celebrated their birthday means it is no longer a random selection. It's a selection of people who's birthday is 3/31.
Likewise, if there are 11,000 men in Wilmar and 0.67% are named Nick, there are 74 Nicks in Wilmar. The chance that the one Wilmar Nick in the VFW that day is Rackets is 1/74.