Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

[Aria]

BNO Newsroom on Twitter

“BREAKING: France reports 1,404 new cases of coronavirus and 69 new deaths, raising total to 9,134 cases and 244 dead https://t.co/eUoE2b20hL”

twitter.com

BNO Newsroom on Twitter: "BREAKING: France reports 1,404 new cases of…

archived 18 Mar 2020 19:07:23 UTC

archive.li

France reports 1,404 new cases of coronavirus and 69 new deaths, raising total to 9,134 cases and 244 dead

BNO Newsroom on Twitter

“UPDATE: French health ministry reports 20 additional deaths, or 89 total over the past 24 hours, raising death toll to 264 - BFMTV https://t.co/QkYBfcdK9B”

twitter.com

BNO Newsroom on Twitter: "UPDATE: French health ministry reports 20 a…

archived 18 Mar 2020 19:14:25 UTC

archive.li

UPDATE: French health ministry reports 20 additional deaths, or 89 total over the past 24 hours, raising death toll to 264 - BFMTV

 

[Non-Expert!]

^Yeah, I have a dutch friend and she had to stand in line for almost an hour to buy a big bag of weed because the coffeshops are closing. Lost of grumpy stoners incoming.

My deepest condolences .... really.

Long lines at San Francisco area cannabis stores exempt from coronavirus lockdown
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...xempt-from-coronavirus-lockdown-idUSKBN2150DB (http://archive.vn/Cmjpz)

California, as we all know .... has "issues."

 

[Not Really Here]

This graphic, which compares Kung Flu mortality against all-cause mortality in the US from 2015, illustrates just how impotent this virus really is.

View attachment 1193566
Source: https://reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fgydxo/ncov19_mortality_rate_by_age_vs_expected_from/

You can see from the top chart that the lines pretty much overlap until you get into the mid-40s, but even for people over 70 your chances of dying relative to baseline only increase by a factor of about 2.5. Interestingly, this ratio is fairly consistent for all ages, and the spike at the beginning is likely a statistical artifact.

The worldwide response to this has been absolutely insane. I bet if you substituted influenza for coronavirus using data from a bad flu season, it would look almost identical.

We don't actually have the data to forecast US baseline mortality for COVID-19 and the fact they didn't use Italian data seems suspect.

 

[RodgerDodger]

To be fair, women are doing the same thing, with articles about how the virus kills more men than women, women most affected, shit like that.

... which ironically is more proof that "Trans women are women" that I've ever seen a Troon provide.



No. It's not.

Welcome to the problem. With those extra 10,000 we have ~75,000 available in the US now.

80% of the US population infected x 20% needing ICU (ventilators) = 53,000,000 ventilators needed.

What happens if we run out? 52,925,000 people are fucked.

But hey, that's why we're HASHTAG: Flatten the Curve, right? Right?

Well, about that.

If they can spread the infection over, oh, 706 months (~59 years), then we won't run out.

You’re pulling numbers out of your ass. It is nowhere near 20% infected require ventilators.

 

[MediocreMilt]

You’re pulling numbers out of your ass. It is nowhere near 20% infected require ventilators.

People are conflating full-scale tube down the throat ventilator with just needing an oxygen mask.

 

[DNA_JACKED]

I'm sorry to bring these kind of news but... Now some emergency doctors / medics in Aalst, Belgium, discover that people as young as 30 get severe alveola damage in their lungs similar to sars too, from covid 19 despite having “blank medical records...

Here's the article :

Belgian doctor says young coronavirus patients also getting 'severely ill'

An emergency doctor treating patients of the coronavirus pandemic said several young people who had been hospitalised were getting "severely ill" despite having no underlying conditions. Doc

www.brusselstimes.com

Edit : oh well i didn't see it was already posted in the Nytimes, my apologies.

China is full of shit and lied about that thing since the beginning, we saw a few videos of Childrens being packed into body bags in hospitals when Harry Chen Phd wasn't disappeared on Twitter a month ago.

Here, i found it again :

Putting 3 children bodies into one bag in a hospital in wuhan, china; to save 2 bags or counting only one body in the death toll? #WuhanCoronavirus

Putting 3 children bodies into one bag in a hospital in wuhan, china; to save 2 bags or counting only one body in the death toll? #WuhanCoronavirus

www.facebook.com

WOAH WOAH WOAH. Back the fuck up.

At no point in the brussel times article does it say their lungs were damaged. It says "Demeyer said that the hospital was increasingly admitting patients between the ages of 30 and 50, which he said got “very ill” despite having “blank medical records.” Which, no shit. That doesnt mean they didnt have underlying problems, just that their sheets were blank when brought in with COVID. And we have seen perfectly healthy young people keel over from COVID before, sometimes shit happens. A 99.99% chance of nothing going wrong still leaves that 0.01% open.

Stop spreading FUD. The NYpost article said CT scans showed damage, but the brussel source did not. American media spreading FAKE NEWS once again. READ the shit you post you retard, creating panic because it sounds nice isnt going to help anybody.

 

[Shield Breaker]

I'm surprised it wasn't the deathfat health minister

Also this was splashed all over the the NY Post website

Millennials may be at a higher risk for catching coronavirus, official says

A top official on the White House coronavirus task force issued an ominous warning on Wednesday, declaring that more millennials in Italy and France had gotten sick than anticipated because they fa…

nypost.com

So while I hope its not so, it's beginning to feel like Spanish Flu 2.0

It says that it is because they were rețarded and ignored warnings.

 

[Curious Addie]

Are we about to see infections blow up in Kenya?

State tracing 85 contacts of patient that left Mbagathi

The patient is said to have left hospital after testing negative, only to later test positive.

www.nation.co.ke

Archive

There are currently only seven confirmed cases.

Kenya coronavirus cases rise to seven - VIDEO

Health CS Mutahi Kagwe confirms that three more patients tested positive for the virus, bringing total to seven.

www.nation.co.ke

Archive

Small beginnings but according to the ancient Chinese proverb, A journey of a thousand miles to millions of infections must begin with a single step super-spreader.

Spoiler: An isolation room at Mbagathi Hospital in Nairobi.

View attachment 1193522

edit: picture

Africa in general will either be turbo fucked because whitey is a bit too busy to help right now, or they won't even notice the wu flu because everyone is dead by 60. Should be interesting.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

Oh okay, so the curve comes once the vaccine is done? That makes sense.

Also, I heard that the virus cannot survive in 80*F, but that may have just been a rumor.

It's been in the low 90s in Singapore for weeks, hasn't it?

 

[Not Really Here]

Oh okay, so the curve comes once the vaccine is done? That makes sense.

Also, I heard that the virus cannot survive in 80*F, but that may have just been a rumor.

"The curve" in this context is 'the rate of infection curve' and anything that prevents new infections "flattens the curve".

To stop spread of COVID-19, ‘flattening the curve’ is critical - News

With almost $200 million in NIH funding, UAB scientists are at the forefront of research that is shaping the future of health and healthcare.

www.uab.edu

 

[Salubrious]

"The curve" in this context is 'the rate of infection curve'.

Yeah, I get that, but why does the curve reach its apex and go down at all?

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

Forgive me if this has been asked.

The entire point of all these precautions is to "flatten the curve" so that the rate of infections can be managed by hospital capacities. That make sense in theory.

What causes the curve to reach its peak and begin the downslope in the first place in any scenario?

The exponential growth phase of the curve happens until you can get R, the reproduction rate, below one. So one of

1) Social distancing. If everyone avoids close contact R can go below one because the people with it either recover or die and can no longer infect anyone
2) Vaccination of > 60% of the population
3) 60% of the population get it and either die or recover and become immune. The UK seemed to flirt with this and then go back to 1)

The 60% figure is just what you need to make R one. If the disease R0 is 2.3 and you can only infect 40% of the population, R is 2.3*0.4=0.92. So each infected person can infect less than one more person and the infection will burn itself out. Social distancing presumably would work if you could reduce the R to below one by limiting social contact.

At least that's the way I understand it.

 

[Not Really Here]

Yeah, I get that, but why does the curve reach its apex and go down at all?

Because at some point everyone either gets it or gets vaccinated and becomes immune.

 

[RodgerDodger]

Oh okay, so the curve comes once the vaccine is done? That makes sense.

Also, I heard that the virus cannot survive in 80*F, but that may have just been a rumor.

The 80 degree F is conjecture. But reasonable conjecture as that’s the point that SARS has trouble surviving in the open air. And Corona-Chan is SARS Mk II. Viruses are fragile things with narrow environmental tolerances. The Chinese ones like SARS tend to favor 30-50 degrees and low humidity. Viruses generally are adapted to the climate they come from. Something like Ebola prefers higher temps and doesn’t deal as well with cold. (Wasn’t one of the treatment tricks with Ebola induced hypothermia?)

 

[simulated goat]

Oh come on, this is next level exceptional, even for you. A Chinese billionaire is not "China" ffs. Next up you'll be saying that Gates Foundation is US.

I find it interesting that Ma is now offering pretty much the same thing as the expat billionaire who hasn't shown up for dinner in a few days.

 

[It's Just The Flu]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1.full.pdf

Every time a new paper is released, the mortality rate gets revised downwards. This one puts it at 0.66%. We're getting very close to flu territory now.

We don't actually have the data to forecast US baseline mortality for COVID-19 and the fact they didn't use Italian data seems suspect.

Data from South Korea and the cruise ship are consistent with one another and they both show an even weaker effect, so if anything those charts overstate the severity of the virus. Americans are not a different species. There's no reason to believe they will suffer any more severely than slants or international cruise ship passengers.

 

[StarkRavingMad]

People getting alarmed about Millennials getting sick in large numbers in Italy and China:

Once again, lifestyle choices play a huge factor in how this virus affects people, and it has been reported that both Italy and China have a large population of people who smoke. Also, let's take into account of the eating and cleaning habits of even the young people in China as opposed to other places around the world.

This has been posted before, but it's worth posting again for people who may not have seen this yet:

Just something to keep in mind before people freak out.

 

[simulated goat]

What the fuck is tesla doing?
View attachment 1193460

Tesla memo: Essential employees, including production, should still come to work

A new internal email at Tesla tells employees, "We have had conflicting guidance from different levels of government," about how to operate during the covid-19 pandemic and shelter-in-place orders. Production employees told to work if they can.

www.cnbc.com

Great, so we can have more cars that mysteriously slam into buildings on top of this shit. No one could have forseen this level of stupid.

 

[RodgerDodger]

WOAH WOAH WOAH. Back the fuck up.

At no point in the brussel times article does it say their lungs were damaged. It says "Demeyer said that the hospital was increasingly admitting patients between the ages of 30 and 50, which he said got “very ill” despite having “blank medical records.” Which, no shit. That doesnt mean they didnt have underlying problems, just that their sheets were blank when brought in with COVID. And we have seen perfectly healthy young people keel over from COVID before, sometimes shit happens. A 99.99% chance of nothing going wrong still leaves that 0.01% open.

Stop spreading FUD. The NYpost article said CT scans showed damage, but the brussel source did not. American media spreading FAKE NEWS once again. READ the shit you post you exceptional individual, creating panic because it sounds nice isnt going to help anybody.

/sigh! Once more for the panicky twits. Yes it likely causes some lung damage in advanced cases. If it advances to the pneumonia stage it will cause some alveolar damage and scarring. All pneumonia does. If you get pneumonia, be it Corona-Chan or some more traditional variant it will show up on chest x-rays forever. This is not an “everybody panic” revelation. Pneumonia causes scarring. It happens. Age and life cause lung scarring. Unless you already have drastically reduced lung function from some other co-morbid issue such as COPD, CF, etc, it’s mostly so negligible as to be a non issue.

 

[360NoTrope]

Oh okay, so the curve comes once the vaccine is done? That makes sense.

Also, I heard that the virus cannot survive in 80*F, but that may have just been a rumor.

It's essentially still summer in Australia, Brazil, Argentina. Brazil just had its first death.