Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

[Megatardingo]

I'm going to need some convincing on that point. What evidence do we have that China is trying to essentially move back to autarky, let alone that they feel it's within reach in the foreseeable future?

They're communists and their more successfull enterpreneurs are beheld to the communist party and even dissappeared when non-compliant regardless of how good at capitalisming they are. They'd rather shut down all communications and hinder industries like gaming for the sake of propaganda and information control rather than economic growth. Idk what other things I could find out if I actually bothered looking particularly but I think the picture is painted pretty clearly even at surface level.

 

[Kosher Dill]

They're communists and their more successfull enterpreneurs are beheld to the communist party and even dissappeared when non-compliant regardless of how good at capitalisming they are. They'd rather shut down all communications and hinder industries like gaming for the sake of propaganda and information control rather than economic growth.

Yes, but I interpret those things as focused on controlling their own people (even if it means taking a loss, as you say) rather than a wholesale turn away from the West. All their recent moves have been about clamping down on sources of power and cultural capital outside the CCP - billionaires, celebrities, foreign media.
Remember another recent development, the whole Uighur cotton controversy. China is still very concerned with punishing Western brands that refuse Uighur cotton. That says to me that they're not interested in telling the West and their money to go to hell.

 

[Megatardingo]

Yes, but I interpret those things as focused on controlling their own people (even if it means taking a loss, as you say) rather than a wholesale turn away from the West. All their recent moves have been about clamping down on sources of power and cultural capital outside the CCP - billionaires, celebrities, foreign media.
Remember another recent development, the whole Uighur cotton controversy. China is still very concerned with punishing Western brands that refuse Uighur cotton. That says to me that they're not interested in telling the West and their money to go to hell.

A truly open market and capitalist focus means the government playing second fiddle, if they won't play second fiddle to their own successfull people what makes you think they'll play second fiddle to the weilo they've been talking about murdering for the past decades? Unless you tell me the CCP has splintering factions or there's real insurgence of the chinese people on the streets (meaningfully, not ping pong saying FEK DA CHAINA on twitter) I'll assume every economic movement in china is a ploy from the CCP to subvert foreign powers under their heel, never caring about profit but domineering.

Now them being (for the moment) playing ball or the actual moment they clamp down and shut it all down being further down the line? Yeah sure that can be argued, but I would never put my eggs in a basket with a lock whose owner fucking hates me, it's the best way to lose those eggs.

 

[Kosher Dill]

A truly open market and capitalist focus means the government playing second fiddle, if they won't play second fiddle to their own successfull people what makes you think they'll play second fiddle to the weilo they've been talking about murdering for the past decades?

Even during the most fanatical excesses of Mao's reign, China was still pragmatic enough to keep an embassy in Hong Kong where they could transact business with the West through the back door. However much China hates the white devils, they'll keep doing business with them as long as it benefits them and allows the CCP to keep its iron grip on the Chinese people. I'm just not seeing a scenario where China tries to crash the global system, unless they think they're ready to go it alone. And I think things would look very different if that were the case.

 

[820㎌Cap]

I'm just not seeing a scenario where China tries to crash the global system, unless they think they're ready to go it alone.

Well... what would "go it alone" look like? We know they have manufacturing, of course, but is there any other "tell," so to speak, that we can find that they would also be doing/working towards? For example, maybe farming enough food to be self-sustainable as a country?

 

[mindlessobserver]

China is a revanchist power. As far as they are concerned the "global system" is an artifact of the western powers responsible for their century of humiliation. Anyone who believes for one second they have any desire to prop up the current global economic order is a fool.

 

[DumbDude42]

Well... what would "go it alone" look like? We know they have manufacturing, of course, but is there any other "tell," so to speak, that we can find that they would also be doing/working towards? For example, maybe farming enough food to be self-sustainable as a country?

not just food, china is also a massive importer of petroleum. plus, a massive portion of their economy is built solely around exporting products to other countries. if autarky is their goal, they are extremely far from reaching it.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

You're still assuming China wants to be the best at capitalism, they don't, they wanna fuck up capitalists and they're baiting retards into moving infraestructure into their honeytrap so then they can shut it down and starve you. Money is worthless to them, they want to burn it and use your matches to do it.

Nigga WE literally feed China.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

not just food, china is also a massive importer of petroleum. plus, a massive portion of their economy is built solely around exporting products to other countries. if autarky is their goal, they are extremely far from reaching it.

MbS is still firmly on Trump's side. For now..

 

[Megatardingo]

Even during the most fanatical excesses of Mao's reign, China was still pragmatic enough to keep an embassy in Hong Kong where they could transact business with the West through the back door. However much China hates the white devils, they'll keep doing business with them as long as it benefits them and allows the CCP to keep its iron grip on the Chinese people. I'm just not seeing a scenario where China tries to crash the global system, unless they think they're ready to go it alone. And I think things would look very different if that were the case.

They're gearing always to go alone so it is a matter of time, they are pragmatic in the sense that they won't do suicide runs to end the west but they absolutely would push the delete capitalism button if in reach, as long as China comes on top whatever happens they don't give a fuck, they'll suicide a million chinks to kill a million and 1 americans.

Nigga WE literally feed China.

China literally manufactures all your electronics, what's harder to do plant a bean or planting a chip? Keep thinking a bushel of wheat is a measure of power and you'll eat shit in massive proportions.

Side note: China numba wan tianangmen ain't real don't shanghai me.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

They're gearing always to go alone so it is a matter of time, they are pragmatic in the sense that they won't do suicide runs to end the west but they absolutely would push the delete capitalism button if in reach, as long as China comes on top whatever happens they don't give a fuck, they'll suicide a million chinks to kill a million and 1 americans.

China literally manufactures all your electronics, what's harder to do plant a bean or planting a chip? Keep thinking a bushel of wheat is a measure of power and you'll eat shit in massive proportions.

Side note: China numba wan tianangmen ain't real don't shanghai me.

Can you eat a microchip? Microchips aren't a necessity to the continuation of life, food is. China doesn't have a monopoly on the production of electronics, and it has little arable land, not exactly a powerful combination. Literally their greatest resource is their pool of cheap labor, which needs regular maintenance in the form of food and water(which they're also running out of), not to mention the social contract the CCP needs to uphold of continual improvement in living conditions. I really don't give a shit if china takes over Asia or topples the West, but that doesn't mean I'm just going to buy your shitty CCP shilling lol.

 

[Megatardingo]

Can you eat a microchip? Microchips aren't a necessity to the continuation of life, food is. China doesn't have a monopoly on the production of electronics, and it has little arable land, not exactly a powerful combination. Literally their greatest resource is their pool of cheap labor, which needs regular maintenance in the form of food and water(which they're also running out of), not to mention the social contract the CCP needs to uphold of continual improvement in living conditions. I really don't give a shit if china takes over Asia or topples the West, but that doesn't mean I'm just going to buy your shitty CCP shilling lol.

Healthcare, vehicles, logistics, everything has fucking chips, even chips-ahoy. You probably think it's just duh computars like a fucking boomer in its prime but electronics are way more integrated into all the systems than you might imagine. It's not CCP shilling, it's more "stop putting your cock near the fire saying it can't burn you because it hasn't burned you yet".

 

[DumbDude42]

They're gearing always to go alone so it is a matter of time, they are pragmatic in the sense that they won't do suicide runs to end the west but they absolutely would push the delete capitalism button if in reach, as long as China comes on top whatever happens they don't give a fuck, they'll suicide a million chinks to kill a million and 1 americans.

China literally manufactures all your electronics, what's harder to do plant a bean or planting a chip? Keep thinking a bushel of wheat is a measure of power and you'll eat shit in massive proportions.

Side note: China numba wan tianangmen ain't real don't shanghai me.

electronics have been and still are being produced by other countries, there's no shortage of potential manufacturers ready to step up. china dominates the market by outcompeting other countries on labor costs, if they were to leave the picture prices would rise and a whole lot of other manufacturing locations would become viable.

the same does not apply to chinese food supply though. they are not capable of replacing imports with local production, isolating the country from international trade would literally result in starvation.

 

[mindlessobserver]

When I wrote this thread I was largely concerned about the explosion of corporate debt and the fleeing of US Dollars into assets.

Since I wrote it the situation has become more grave. The Federal Reserve has stopped reporting on the money supply. After they changed the rules for banks to bring their fractional reserve lending rate to 0% and permitting them to use Savings Accounts to balance the books. Enforced lending rates remain near zero while the real inflation is now exceeding 8% and the consumer price index is spiking out of control

In Asia it is now being revealed the debts of the local governments in China exceed the GDP of the entire Chinese economy by orders of magnitude. Debts that are dependent on a property sector that is collapsing under the weight of debts denominated in US dollars that the Chinese government CANNOT paper over.

This situation involves major American Funds like Fidelity and Blackrock who are leveraged to the hilt with massive exposure. While in America the US Federal government is attempting to pass a 5 TRILLION dollar stimulus bill masquerading as a budget and infrastructure package to try and jump start an economy that is starting to fail. As part of that bill there are provisions to try and halt the fleeing of capital with massive taxes on crypto currencies.

The writing is on the wall. I am now 100% convinced this is happening. The actions of the major global governments are in line with this happening. The only question now is how long they can act like wiley Coyote suspended over the canyon.

And I honestly don't know what to do anymore. Even the crypto market is exposed and it's going to get wrecked very soon. What comes next for it will depend massively on "political" outcomes. I hope I am wrong. I WANT to be wrong. So someone PLEASE explain why I am wrong. Because I think we are on the event horizon and only inertia itself is keeping the final fall away.

 

[Thirsty Kitty]

When I wrote this thread I was largely concerned about the explosion of corporate debt and the fleeing of US Dollars into assets.

Since I wrote it the situation has become more grave. The Federal Reserve has stopped reporting on the money supply. After they changed the rules for banks to bring their fractional reserve lending rate to 0% and permitting them to use Savings Accounts to balance the books. Enforced lending rates remain near zero while the real inflation is now exceeding 8% and the consumer price index is spiking out of control

In Asia it is now being revealed the debts of the local governments in China exceed the GDP of the entire Chinese economy by orders of magnitude. Debts that are dependent on a property sector that is collapsing under the weight of debts denominated in US dollars that the Chinese government CANNOT paper over.

This situation involves major American Funds like Fidelity and Blackrock who are leveraged to the hilt with massive exposure. While in America the US Federal government is attempting to pass a 5 TRILLION dollar stimulus bill masquerading as a budget and infrastructure package to try and jump start an economy that is starting to fail. As part of that bill there are provisions to try and halt the fleeing of capital with massive taxes on crypto currencies.

The writing is on the wall. I am now 100% convinced this is happening. The actions of the major global governments are in line with this happening. The only question now is how long they can act like wiley Coyote suspended over the canyon.

And I honestly don't know what to do anymore. Even the crypto market is exposed and it's going to get wrecked very soon. What comes next for it will depend massively on "political" outcomes. I hope I am wrong. I WANT to be wrong. So someone PLEASE explain why I am wrong. Because I think we are on the event horizon and only inertia itself is keeping the final fall away.

I can't prove you wrong. This is concerning and im scared for market open

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

So what will be the early signs of shit hitting the fan? I remember some of the shit that happened right at the start of the recession, when are we going to see real shit going down in the American market?

 

[Tom Nook's Gloryhole]

In Asia it is now being revealed the debts of the local governments in China exceed the GDP of the entire Chinese economy by orders of magnitude. Debts that are dependent on a property sector that is collapsing under the weight of debts denominated in US dollars that the Chinese government CANNOT paper over.

Surely anyone should have seen this coming? For over a decade now, Chinese businesses (and by proxy, China itself) have poured an incredible amount of money into purchasing foreign assets, companies and making insane investments all over the place. Nobody questioned it because it was assumed that China was making so much money that they had a huge surplus to spunk on assets, but now it's looking like the economy was propped up with chocolate coins.

When this shit hits the fan and people realise that the massive inflation in stock prices for US businesses was propped up with fake money then we're looking at an insane depression.

 

[Hollywood Hulk Hogan]

So what will be the early signs of shit hitting the fan? I remember some of the shit that happened right at the start of the recession, when are we going to see real shit going down in the American market?

There isn't one. If someone knew, they'd be rich as shit and wouldn't tell anyone else

 

[mindlessobserver]

There isn't one. If someone knew, they'd be rich as shit and wouldn't tell anyone else

The party will go on until the cops bust down the door. A few people will have spotted them coming up the drive and bolted out the back door. The majority of the people at the party will get the nightstick.

 

[mindlessobserver]

We've not avoided the end. If you would cast your gaze towards the happening thread on Evergrande, the dominoes in Asia have started to fall. Here in the west, there is now a desperate cloying need for banks and funds to purchase Ethereum and Bitcoin. A shocking reversal. While this is going on the President of the United States....sorry, the people who handed the President his script to read has laid out apocalyptic consequences if the US congress does not pass the fiscal stimulus bill....sorry...I mean "the budget".

The Federal Reserve is no longer reporting the M1 money supply. The banks are now using your savings accounts like checking accounts with fractional reserves of 0%. The US Dollar is functionally worthless and things that DO have value, like oil, are now asserting themselves. The asset inflation can no longer be controlled and it is combined with a labor shortage brought on by coronavirus and generous government subsidies for not working.

No one could have foreseen this. The circumstances that would have brought the global economy to this point are inconceivable. Yet now we are here, and there is no going back. Nothing can be done. Even the act of acknowledging something MUST be done will be enough to end the delusion and bring about the end

It can no longer be avoided.