Forgot this game existed I thought it came out and failed already till I saw this thread.
Hoo boy concord 3 so soon?
It's going to entirely depend on how the beta does. a good chunk of Destiny's PVP community will try the game out on principle, and there are people from other extraction shooters like Hunt, Tarkov and Arc Raiders that will try it as well.
If the game has Bungie's good gunplay it could find a decent niche. if it launches with the usual bungie problems it'll probably die a slow painful death, but I don't think it'll die as fast as Concord/Highguard. I think it'll die like Halo Infinite did.
Halo Infinite maxed out at 270k players on steam when it released and then it dived over the course of six months until it only had about 6,000 players. Season 2 for the MP came out in May 2022 and it spiked the player base to 20,000 but it died back down to an 8,000-6,000 average player count by the end of May.
Season 3 in March of 2023 saw it go up to 12,000 and then die back down to 8,000 after like 6 days. Season 4 had 8,000 players max and Season 5 spiked to 18k only for it to die back to the 8,000s after a month.
The game then started bleeding players slowly over the next three years until we get to today where it only has 3k as it's 24 hour peak.
Mind you I'm not saying the game will max out at like 200k players but I think whatever player base it has will slowly bleed away instead of instantly drop off if the game is fun but bungie drops the ball somehow
But I could be wrong and It's player's count could drop like a rock after like a week.