‘yeah, they probably aren’t telling us the real figures
Can I ask "real figures" related to what?
Because if I am interpreting it correctly and it is about immigrants, I am not sure they even know them themselves (old
example, but doubtful it has been fixed). Ironically, I think the government has so much data that it cannot actually process all of it.
For instance this is the
latest publication from the ONS on their forecast for immigration.
Something many may miss is that the latest data they are reporting on is December 2023 - over 6 months ago!
The
delay of the data is important. That is how late the ONS estimates are. Because of timing with the Budget, it is not always the case that the the Budget uses the latest ONS numbers. So basically you can have a budget that is based on data that is one year old.
Also, when creating a forecast, you cannot ignore the last 10-15 years in favour of a recent trend. If the trend is very different, then what do you do? We have seen immigration trends change a lot recently. That's a problem as we are now less sure of what will happen.
The delay is not just 6 months! Because if the group that arrived 6 months ago behaves very differently from the one that arrived 12 months ago, then you will wrongly assume that they will behave the same. In other words, in June this is what you would have
(totally making up numbers)
- January: 1000 arrivals, 50% return within 3 months, 10% return within 6 months
- June: 2000, arrivals, ??? you will assume that 1000 return within 3 months, but don't know for sure.
I suggest reading section 3 of the publication I linked. As an example
These updated data lead to revisions to our immigration estimates for a variety of reasons, including:
- individuals who originally arrive on short-term visas are not initially included in our immigration estimates; some of these individuals go on to get another visa that extends their stay into the UK to over 12 months and should be counted as long-term immigrants
- individuals who are on a visa of less than a year may overstay their visa and therefore extend their stay in the UK to over 12 months and should be counted as long-term immigrants
- individuals who are initially missing information about their first arrival into the UK appear as if they have not arrived on their visa; when we see subsequent travel information out of and into the UK, we have evidence they are present in the UK and therefore backfill their first arrival date and they should be counted as long-term immigrants
These updated data have revised our immigration estimates for the YE June 2023 up by 39,000. (Kiwi note: YE = year ending, so entire year up to June 2023)
So, TLDR, they publish the numbers initially. Then have to go back and fix them. The initial numbers don't seem to account for those that overstay their visas (it never happens!!!)
The estimates can be wrong by tens of thousands! So for a period of six months, the official statistics that the Guardian and the BBC will smugly present were off by a small town. Don't misunderstand, this is what they were wrong by - for long-term immigrants, not the entire number of people who came in 6 months as long-term immigrant!
Edit --
@FinnSven ITT I have said I once volunteered in an illegal immigrant camp, so I think it's pretty clear that my "cultural background" and lived experience is that of a leftist.
I would normally think that what they are given is too little, and if given more they would be able to live with more dignity and thus be less anti-social. However, I have also met many of these migrants, and I don't have any hope that it would work.
It might work for the "smart ones" for about a day or two, until the average troublesome ones and the truly anti-social ones will bring back to the same level as before. For example, you may think they could start saving for something (idk winter coat?), but they cannot save because the aforementioned groups will just steal the money from them - and beat them up as well.
I know this type of migrant is not the biggest in terms of numbers. I think the biggest costs they create is probably to the local councils and the local community, in terms of policing and physical as well "environmental" damage to the area where they stay (environment in terms of less foot traffic, so less people going to cafes, even less shopping in the town's high streets, etc).