I try to avoid making absolute statements lest I get egg on my face, because in the spite of all reason it might do gangbusters even if that prospect is extremely unlikely.
Pillars of Eternity 1 wasn't great (better than their modern output but I digress) but I also think it came with the hope that it's just the first step on the road to greater things. Tyranny had an interesting concept but failed to meet expectations - too short and lacking actual consequences; Tyranny also represented their first foray in catering to the 'modern audience' Then Deadfire bombed (I know nothing about it aside from ships, nihilism and gay fish) and then they had to be saved by the Microsoft acquisition. "Okay, maybe the issue was funding and time?" But then Outer Worlds 1 was insufferable writing-wise and ugly to look at — Rick and Morty meets Borderlands with even less subtlety. Massive disappointment, even if you could do the le funny "kill everyone" thing. Still, it sold well with lukewarm reception.
Avowed did bomb though, and '5 million players' claim is the same trod out cope EA used when Veilguard underperformed. I could see Outer Worlds 2 bombing as well forcing Obsidian to beg Microsoft on hand and knee to throw them a lifeline in the shape of Fallout, which Microsoft admittedly has incentive for due to how well the tv show performed. You're completely right about them running out of goodwill; a new Fallout under their name might be their final hail mary to stay alive and show they can still shift game units. Obsidian working with someone else's IP is also the last shred of cope you could afford them since they've been utterly abysmal when trying to create something original*, so maybe they need someone else to have already done the heavy lifting (lore, setting) for them to put out a half-decent product?
I also wonder if Obsidian is trying too hard to remain a 'prestigious' storytelling RPG studio when their devs and writers are clearly more suited to doing shit like Grounded — that survival crafting game with bugs aimed at children. It and Pentiment are arguably some of the better games they've released in the past 11 years. Maybe their ultimate fate will be to produce shit that doesn't sell well but pads out Gamepass? EA are keeping Bioware alive for God know's what reason so maybe Obsidian will meet a similar end?
*Alpha Protocol holds a special place in my heart.
Gaming is the way it is because most consumers aren't that into video games and simply view them as personalized movies, timewasters and/or casinos.
I agree, but I think in the whole 'consumer'-base comes in different factions.
For instance, there's the more reactive sort of consumer who will simply buy whatever has positive buzz online, even if they know nothing about it otherwise. These are the guys who occupy who own Skyrim but haven't got the achievement for escaping Helgen. I know one such consumer personally, who bought MGS5 (never touched the older games) at launch but stopped playing soon after because it wasn't 'his sort of game'. The game is probably still slotted between a copy Fifa and Call of Duty as I type this. I think to stop those sorts of consumers contributing to the sales of a game, the online discourse around it has to be contentious so their first instinct isn't to just buy it because it has good reception.
