Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Richardface]

Refiner runs out of storage for gasoline. Now it must stop taking shipments of crude. The pipelines that ship the crude must be depressurized and now the oil field, which relies on having its output directly fed into the refiner must now shutter operations. The well must be secured so production can safely stop. You're now looking at months to restart the well once refining capacity becomes available along with inspections of the pipelines, re-pressurization, and for the refiner to retool to whatever product mix is being demanded.

The entire system is built around stable supply and demand at all levels and for product to be consumed immediately as it becomes available. If it fucks up at any one point, then it can take months to reconfigure it. This is why oil shocks have such long-lasting effects.

You don't just turn it off and turn it back on again. If demand and supply become even a little mismatched, the entire system seizes up.

If their refining capacity is in free fall why is the average cost of petrol at the pump in Russia only marginally higher than it was in December, rising from 51.19 rub/liter to an astronomical 51.89 rub/l

Russia gasoline prices, 30-May-2022 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Gasoline prices per litre, octane-95: We show prices for Russia from 21-Feb-2022 to 30-May-2022. The average value for Russia during that period was 51.85 Russian Rouble with a minimum of 51.70 Russian Rouble on 23-May-2022 and a maximum of 51.89 Russian Rouble on 28-Feb-2022. For comparison...

www.globalpetrolprices.com

(On a side note, that's 2 us dollars/gallon lol)

 

[Simpadoo]

Interview with Col Douglas MacGregor. interesting that Desert Storm vets like him and Scott Ritter treat it as self evident that Ukraine is turbofucked whereas GWoT veterans rate the Ukrainians. Suspect it is this issue that Ukranian forces are well trained and equipped for tactical battles whereas Russia is utterly dominant on the operational level in terms of air power, mobility and long range fires.

(Original, long)

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@JosephStalin interested in your thoughts as someone from that generation

Riveting stuff.

 

[Fcret]

They're running under capacity though, and in anticipation of the current situation for some time before war broke out. I'm not a Russiaboo but I did occasionally buy things from the Russian Federation and the rumblings of war and supply issues were a thing in late 2021. So this was already factored in.
still kicking myself over not getting that Kommandirske watch in December.

They're running undercapacity because they have nowhere to store their current outputs. A massive amount of their customers have simply stopped buying and companies involved in taking shipments of Russian gasoline have stopped as well.

If their refining capacity is in free fall why is the average cost of petrol at the pump in Russia only marginally higher than it was in December, rising from 51.19 rub/liter to an astronomical 51.89 rub/l

Russia gasoline prices, 30-May-2022 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Gasoline prices per litre, octane-95: We show prices for Russia from 21-Feb-2022 to 30-May-2022. The average value for Russia during that period was 51.85 Russian Rouble with a minimum of 51.70 Russian Rouble on 23-May-2022 and a maximum of 51.89 Russian Rouble on 28-Feb-2022. For comparison...

www.globalpetrolprices.com

(On a side note, that's 2 us dollars/gallon lol)

Because for one thing, Russia subsidizes gasoline consumption.

 

[Richardface]

They're running undercapacity because they have nowhere to store their current outputs. A massive amount of their customers have simply stopped buying and companies involved in taking shipments of Russian gasoline have stopped as well.


Because for one thing, Russia subsidizes gasoline consumption.

Oh, so we're now at "Russia is fucked because it has more gasoline than it knows what to do with". My God this has been retarded and I apologise for getting involved.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Oh, so we're now at "Russia is fucked because it has more gasoline than it knows what to do with". My God this has been retarded and I apologise for getting involved.

I mean it has too little but also too much.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

They're running undercapacity because they have nowhere to store their current outputs. A massive amount of their customers have simply stopped buying and companies involved in taking shipments of Russian gasoline have stopped as well.

Yeah this sounds like an assumption based on wishful thinking. Those customers are still buying; we're still buying fertilizer from Russia, which uses petroleum for production.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

there's a reason most armies don't have that many tanks, they were and continue to be a logistical nightmare.

That and the price on them has skyrocketed over the last few decades. Most countries simply can't afford to purchase any significant quantities, much less the maintenance.

 

[mr.moon1488]

Lol just some random tism I ran into.

https://twitter.com/allequality2017/status/1510473274756501506

 

[Chandelier]

There is refined oil, and there is the stuff you can put in your car. My daydreams are fine. The simple truth is Russia's refineries are designed to produce 1950's grade Mazut. Good enough to put in a soviet shitbox. Not good enough to put in a modern MIG fighter. The Fuel that Europeans put in their cars comes from Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia and the United States. Not Russia. The Fuel from Russia is solely used for powering electrical plants and providing heating and cooking gas. Or base product that is refined domestically to supplement imports from North America and the Middle East.

Russia's domestic refining capacity is fine for peace time needs, but not for the war time tempo. There is also a serious issue in that Russia has no way to transport the refined product it IS capable of producing to where its needed. That is another issue separate to their capacity limits. Ukraine has made fuel tankers the primary target of their partisan forces. Russia is running out of transport capacity that can move the refined product to where its needed. Further hindering their capacity,

Well, Germany's reserves are running low and their Ministers are telling people to wear sweaters if they're cold. All to help Ukraine.

Of course, America is willing to sell gas but isn't willing to pump it. So the squeeze is going to be felt everywhere.

That Russian sludge was feeding German energy demand, as they closed their coal and nuclear power plants. Thanks, Greta.

 

[ditto]

Lol just some random tism I ran into.

Little disappointed that the ovals and circles don't rotate and animate with Indian music playing like I was expecting.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

War Cat for April 2, 2022


Bonus: War Doggo

 

[mr.moon1488]

Little disappointed that the ovals and circles don't rotate and animate with Indian music playing like I was expecting.

That would look too much like a toilet bowl and would be forbidden in their culture.

 

[1Tonka_Truck]

I didn't know that? Kerosene, heh.

JET-A is Kerosene with 11 herbs and spices. JP-5 is adding MSG for the extra kick, and it will kill you.

And its easy to refine. From not just petroleum but coal as well.

eta: The USA was, and is still an oil producing nation how can you not know about kerosene? People still use it for heating and they sell it for race cars right now in the USA You can even get it at certain gas stations..

Kerosene was the first product ever refined from the Pennsylvania oil fields. Jets, trucks and tanks don't run on Kerosene. They need Jet-A and diesel respectively. Since it's snowing in Ukraine, diesel will require of an admixture of kerosene to keep the diesel from jelling a below 25° F. If you can show me a racecar that runs on kerosene I'll make someone eat a hat. Almost guarantee you're thinking of methanol, maybe 120 octane. E85 if it's a really lame racecar.

Guess we have to file this under the "we shall see" folder. Russia's ability to keep its field units fueled is a major failure point from what I am seeing. The fact they were desperately trying to build a pipeline into northern Ukraine (before abandoning it) says alot.

Russian military units are short on trucks from the start. They rely on special engineering units to extend rail and pipeline behind frontline units to support mehcanized maneuvers. Not saying it works, but that's what the Russians plan for.

Oh, so we're now at "Russia is fucked because it has more gasoline than it knows what to do with". My God this has been retarded and I apologise for getting involved.

Gasoline doesn't move tanks, trucks, or trains, but it does take up storage. Depending on feedstock and plant design, a set amount of gasoline has to come out of the fractioning towers for every barrel of feedstock processed and it has to go somewhere.

 

[Richardface]

On why the capture of Izyum is so important, and why the Germans and Soviets fought so hard for it back in WW2

Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania)

On the strategic importance of Izyum, just captured by the Russians. Its "elevated position towers over the hills that define this land. From there, major roadways and adjoining villages are visible for miles." The next big target is Kramatorsk, key to encircling Ukrainian forces

nitter.net

Along with a description of the benefits that local colloborators have been for Russian forces

 

[ditto]

Bonus: War Doggo

 

[Echo_Ender]

View attachment 3138887

https://twitter.com/Gugugugagaga3/status/1510465289992867840

View attachment 3138889
View attachment 3138890

LOL. They put that big, stupid Z even on things they capture?

The Russians should just run around with white spray paint, put Zs all over Ukrainian stuff, and see if they'll friendly fire.

 

[Derka Derka]

One of the most important pieces was cut from the broadcast of the interview with Zelensky.

Host Bret Baier asked Zelensky about the torture of prisoners of war by the Azov battalion, to which he replied: "They are what they are." A simple answer that says a lot.

If you try to find this fragment on the Internet, then you are unlikely to succeed, since everything has been cleaned up. But, as they say, manuscripts don't burn on the Internet.
View attachment 3138068

Zelensky is saying that Azov troops have been incorporated in the general Ukrainian military.

Which means they are spreading neo-nazi fanatical elements, and their influence, into the rest of the military.

 

[Drag-on Knight 91873]

Zelensky is saying that Azov troops have been incorporated in the general Ukrainian military.

Which means they are spreading neo-nazi fanatical elements, and their influence, into the rest of the military.

The West: "Are we the baddies?"

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

LOL. They put that big, stupid Z even on things they capture?

The Russians should just run around with white spray paint, put Zs all over Ukrainian stuff, and see if they'll friendly fire.

You ESPECIALLY want that big stupid z on captured gear. Using captured gear is a longstanding tradition in war, as is marking it so your guys don't shoot you on accident. Every army has done it, since forever.

 

[RainwaterDrop]

LOL. They put that big, stupid Z even on things they capture?

The Russians should just run around with white spray paint, put Zs all over Ukrainian stuff, and see if they'll friendly fire.

Most of their equipment is Soviet in origin, same as Ukraine so they put them to distinguish them from their foes. Makes it easier to guess who you should NLAW or not lol!