Taliban offensive of 2021 and collapse of Afghan government.

[Karl der Grosse]

Where's Rostum, and what role is he intending in the future?

 

[Ghostse]

Jesus christ you niggers post a lot. To keep your undocumented words from overrunning this thread, I'm going to have to build Post the Wall of text

Sounds about right. From what I understand the Taliban haven't in fact conquered the whole country, they've being doing deals with local Warlords, paying them off with Chinese and Gulf money, in return for safe passage with the promise that the Taliban won't interfere with their territory and the bosses get to keep their palaces and pedo harems. However the Taliban being the Taliban this won't last.

When the Soviets pulled out there was a massive amount of infighting between the various Mujaheddin groups along ethnic and tribal lines. This was the reason that the ISI created the Taliban in the first place, to restore a degree of order in their northern neighbor and to put a stop to Indian influence. The Taliban are trying to do something that's never been achieved in millennia, have a functional and strong central government based in Kabul. This is why they're being a little more circumspect than they were in the nineties but eventually they're going to revert to type and will be looking to subjugate the non Pashtun provinces and then expect fireworks. I'm not a betting man but I'd happily gamble that Afghanistan is going to be the at least as much of a war torn shit hole in the coming decade as it was in the last.

This is an excellent post and you've got a solid handle on the current situation and how its going to evolve.

The Taliban do not "control" the whole country. They currently have freedom of movement (ie they can move without too much fear of attack) bought with bribes and intimidation but they cannot impose their will outside of their ethnic areas. When they try, the local warlords will fight bac.

This actually got me thinking, even though the Taliban got a metric shit-ton of weapons from the ANA (which the USA gave/sold to them so they can build up their army), wouldn't they be mostly useless if ammo is that unavailable? It's kind of like the Humvees the Taliban can joyride in for a few months before gas runs out or they inevitably break down (I hate to say it, but our modern USA-made military equipment is NOTHING like the Toyota Hilux trucks that can run for 20+ years and be maintained fairly easily).

I guess what I'm thinking, besides the bad optics, does it matter the Taliban got this equipment in the end?

Small arms aren’t really the biggest possible issues. The good stuff is tube artillery, and they seized enough of it from the ANA along with ammunition to last a while, if they bother ever using it. Most of the stuff will last a long time but small arms are replaceable, common, and available all over the region.

Taliban got nothing good with all the loot besides the arty. All their aircraft, the Tucanos asside, are post-soviet export knockoffs or dependent on high-tech missles (like the Cessna Carvans) the Taliban will be hard pressed to get their hands on and maintain, and that's provided the Taliban try to maintain an airforce.
They had Mil-24s from the post-soviet collapse and weren't able to get the airworthy despite the Flying Tank being designed to be serviced in the field by soviet mechanics.

The major issue is that unless you have airpower, the taliban will have months to position their new mortars and arty in the best locations, and it'll be hard to displace for any counter-taliban push that materializes.

If the Taliban wanted they could probably massacre the US troops present and all remaining US civilians in a matter of days if not hours. Thing is, if they did they’d send a clear message to everyone that their rhetoric about playing nice is total bs and give the US an excuse to invade again.

So it’s in their interests to let the evacuations continue.

That said, I don’t know how the Taliban would successfully defeat US soldiers-its six thousand or so in a fairly concentrated area, with some air support no? If it came to a battle, the taliban would suffer heavy losses even if they won, or they might lose to superior American firepower and personnel. They’d need to surround the area with at least three times as many fighters, mortars, every RPG would need to be trained on the runway to keep supplies from being dropped in.

Any move by the Taliban to attack (and by attack I mean actually displace and not just shooting an AK blindly in their general direction as is the Arab way) the American troops is going to result in levels of fucking around and finding out that shouldn't be physically possible. The satellites know where the Taliban and their new gear is. There are still strategic bombers and CAS-capable craft near by and nations that would let the US base out of them to defend under-fire troops.
The US has been trying not to poke the Taliban, and the Taliban have been doing a good job at being seen as not deserving a poke. Trying to take the airport by force would remove their operational cover and expose them to full retaliation.

i've seen footage of IEDs in iraq ripping up roads like they're made of wet clay and throwing humvees up in the air 10+ meters so i figured they'd do the job just fine but my personal experience in runway demolition is rather limited so maybe it isn't all that simple

A lot of those IEDs are Explosively formed Penetrators (EFPs), which work with a copper penetrator directed at a target that works on the sample principle as a high explosive anti tank (HEAT) muntion. Runways are huge and it might need some thought into building a bomb from the usual toolset they have to create something capable of destroying the runway. It would be easier to just take a PKM or an abandoned M2 and shoot some holes into the Aircraft while they're parked.

@MG-34 has it right; those are laid & crafted charges. Arty into Tarmak is well known to just leave potholes that any military jet will just roll over. You need special "fuck your airstrip nyugga" bombs and rounds to really disable an airstrip. Its more likely they'd just try to put a mortar ontop of a grounded C17.
Also I'm going to drop this big dose of truth for you: roads in the Middle East are not build to the levels of even US roads because of a mix of local corruption and local conditions; you can build a road on the cheap in Iraq and have it last as long as a better constructed road in the US or Europe because you dont' have shit like soil contraction/expansion with the winter freeze/spring thaw.

According to the sharia sihr (witchcraft) is punishable by death. I think a few Muslim majority countries still enforce it thank God, but 'Muslim countries' generally only maintain vaguely sharia-inspired legislation aside from the Islamic Emirate since it's an actual sharia state.

Lots of muslim countries on the Arab periphery - Like Africa west & south of Egypt, or east of Iran, Islam got blended with local 'folk magic'. Sort of like Catholics and their Saints. Some of it got imported backwards thanks to Ottomans and the Ottoman Sultans would usually have a Court Magician of some variety, who did divinations.

Sort of like how fortune tellers and necromancers* are expressly forbidden in the old testament, but usually that sort of thing got a blind eye turned to it in Europe and even the Puritans tolerated it in small, private doses.

*If you have a one of the good translations, Necromancy is forbidden by name.
Spoiler, they don't mean cool armies of the dead, they more mean like seances and John Edwards cold read sort of shit.

The dominant religion in Persia before the Islamic Conquest (Zoroastrianism) had a view of dogs similar to that of how ancient Egyptians viewed cats. Not quite deities, but something almost like agents of the deity. The Zoroastrians literally considered a house to not be a home without a dog in it. In any event, they revered dogs.

The Islamic disdain of dogs might be nothing more than a backlash over this, since Persia was their first real conquest outside the Saudi peninsula.

Dogs are prolific scavengers is more the point. Which isn’t unusual, but when they’re more closely in contact with people regularly, the association starts to get made. Feral dogs are also far more likely to attack, kill, and eat people. The feral dog population of a city eating corpses after a sack isn’t an unusual thing to see.

Muhammed liked 9 year old girls and hated dogs.
If you are looking for logic on the injunction against dogs beyond "Pedo Prophet was scared of doggos" you are over reaching.

His personal hatred got support for this because in arabia you had to deal with feral dogs acting the wolf in the wilderness. Western folks are used to friendly stays who know how to act to get fed, or fearful strays who likely because of abuse avoid humans at all cost - because any agressive or rabid strays are quickly dealt with by animal control. Pre-modern strays would be more likened to coyotes for people in America - they arent' going to bother adult humans, but might snatch a kid and lash out if surprised while eating. But not creatures you can really just tame.
For our European cousins, think 4-legged gypsies.

It was completely delusional for the US top brass to think that ordinary Afghans recruited from poverty were going to meaningfully take up arms against their own countryman for a government that almost entirely owes it's creation to a highly distrusted and culturally alien foreign occupier; especially when corruption at every level of the government was preventing these people from even getting their paycheck.

The sad part is that when the US was running things and forcing the first classes of Afghans to train like americans and stop being shiftless mountain arabs, it was working. Many of them did want to see Afghanistan stop being a violent back water, and wanted better lives for themselves and their offspring, and were willing to fight and die to that end.

Then they started to try to turn things over, and the leadership started doing normal fuckfuck games and sabotaging their own forces to be able to buy another boy for the harem and buy another gaudy, poorly constructed mansion.

No one is going to fight for the rights of some corrupt pedos to continue to pilfer the country, especially when their paychecks aren't showing up.

they're not new to governing a country lol they ruled afghanistan for several years before 9/11

As @borsabil covered in his post, the Taliban as an organization was in charge, but they didnt' really rule. They levied taxes and did Sharia patrol, but they didn't really govern.
There isn't really a single 'Taliban', the Taliban is a bunch of warlords from the same (or close enough) ethnic groups who fight with each other less than they fight against the other, bad muslims.

Apparently Biden had to be browbeaten into agreeing to the meeting. Looks like a lot of our allies are starting to notice the absentee president.
View attachment 2463371

G7 foreign ministers speak as Biden hangs back

Washington had to be ‘bounced’ into agreeing to the call, says UK government official.

www.politico.eu

One thing I don't think people are grasping is just how disconnected Biden is from the average American's reality. Biden is seeing the reports "Is what thought was going happen happening?" "Yes, just faster than we thought." "Have they killed any Americans?" "No, not yet" "Well, ok then. I'm going to take a nap, wake me if they start shooting anyone we care about. If they don't we'll deal with it monday"

And in a very real sense, he's not wrong. Why get worked up about defending a country its own people can't be assed to defend, especially when we knew it was going to implode?
But while that's a perfectly logical stance to have, the fucking perception and him being off getting his dick flattened is not good.

I’m more concerned about some young commander deciding he wants to make his name by attempting to capture an American convoy than the old breed. How much control the higher ups have over the foot troops is up to debate.

Then again I might be vastly underestimating how much control the older council guys have when it comes to the younger members of the Taliban.

The "New Breed" are actually the ones running the show now. They are the ones who got to see the value of diplomacy and international perception. The old breed & the rank-and-file goatfuckers are the ones who want to get back to just acting like Afghans usually do.

Edit: Jesus christ with rocket rollers what the fuck

View attachment 2463530

My Venezuelan Friend, I have a secret to tell you.
The Democrats have been doing this shit nearly out in the open since Clinton. The GOP isn't immune either but the Print Media arm of the Democrats going rabid for Trump was a rare break with tradition.
The Democrat Simping reached a full fever pitch with Obama. Orange Man was roasted in the media for trying to keep out Acosta, but Obama was known for completely sidelining reporters who didn't stick to his narrative pushing and asked uncomfortable questions.

In this case, Biden simply said the quiet part loud.

There is not as much gulf between the current US administration and the one in power over you, except there is a small possibility that Biden could get Churro'ed.

Afghanistan secures a coveted seat at the UN women’s commission

The South Asian nation wins a place at the UN Commission on the Status of Women that works for gender equality.

www.aljazeera.com

Afghanistan won a seat to the UN Women's Commission and the term is from 2021-2025. I'm not sure of the particulars but my belief is that if the Taliban are recognized as the de jure government of Afghanistan then they should inherit the seat, which would be delightful.

Pure Kino

 

[Feline Supremacist]

US general tells British special forces: Stop rescuing people in Kabul, you're making us look bad

I understand that the commanding general of the 82nd Airborne Division has told the commander of the British special forces at the Kabul airport to cease operations beyond the airport perimeter.

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Thoughts?

 

[MG-34]

US general tells British special forces: Stop rescuing people in Kabul, you're making us look bad

I understand that the commanding general of the 82nd Airborne Division has told the commander of the British special forces at the Kabul airport to cease operations beyond the airport perimeter.

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Thoughts?

I don't doubt it. The modern US military is very restricted and needs to verify if any action they want to take is approved by higher ups. The Bongs are likely just saying "fuck it" and grabbing any civilians they can get past the perimeter and dealing with the consequences later. Personal initiative is highy discouraged and even punished in the US military.

 

[murdered meat bag]

US general tells British special forces: Stop rescuing people in Kabul, you're making us look bad

I understand that the commanding general of the 82nd Airborne Division has told the commander of the British special forces at the Kabul airport to cease operations beyond the airport perimeter.

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Thoughts?

british sas embarrassed us in nam as well. the limeys had developed quite a system of silent combat ops compared to our green berets and seals. and by the numbers the sas did better per seal/beret.

i remember task and purpose having a hissy fit because the brits were saying sas snipers were killing all these talibans from half a mile while our dod never bothered to run similar propaganda.

I don't doubt it. The modern US military is very restricted and needs to verify if any action they want to take is approved by higher ups. The Bongs are likely just saying "fuck it" and grabbing any civilians they can get past the perimeter and dealing with the consequences later. Personal initiative is highy discouraged and even punished in the US military.

Ryan Zinke wrote about seal ops missing their chance on VIPs in serbia because top brass wanted all the contingencies in place. Zinke wrote about a general wondering if dogs would sniff out hiding seals so they had to run smell tests with dogs with testes and dogs without testes to see if dogs with tests had better sense of smell (they didn't know if the serb dogs had testes or not). by the time they figured it out, the serb they wanted had moved somewhere else. same with getting bin laden.


I doubt the british are better with bureaucracy. but their sof train for more than our guys and likely came into afghanistan with the mission to yank brits out. this in contrast to the 82nd coming up with a new shitty plan after the seige on bagram was cancelled.

 

[DelusionTree]

The Afghan National Army has displayed the most incompetence out of any army I've ever seen. Literally anyone on Kiwi Farms would've been a better commander than any of the ANA generals.

Any army sure but most the incompetent military organization in history still is the Imperial Russian Navy during the Russo-Japanese War, holy shit though the ANA are a strong second.

 

[Ghostse]

british sas embarrassed us in nam as well. the limeys had developed quite a system of silent combat ops compared to our green berets and seals. and by the numbers the sas did better per seal/beret.

i remember task and purpose having a hissy fit because the brits were saying sas snipers were killing all these talibans from half a mile while our dod never bothered to run similar propaganda.

Ryan Zinke wrote about seal ops missing their chance on VIPs in serbia because top brass wanted all the contingencies in place. Zinke wrote about a general wondering if dogs would sniff out hiding seals so they had to run smell tests with dogs with testes and dogs without testes to see if dogs with tests had better sense of smell (they didn't know if the serb dogs had testes or not). by the time they figured it out, the serb they wanted had moved somewhere else. same with getting bin laden.


I doubt the british are better with bureaucracy. but their sof train for more than our guys and likely came into afghanistan with the mission to yank brits out. this in contrast to the 82nd coming up with a new shitty plan after the seige on bagram was cancelled.

The Brits in general do better about trusting their in-field personnel to make decisions about shit going on in field.

For example, British Boomer Captains are able to launch their nukes without codes from central command. Not even the soviets granted their sub captains that level of autonomy.

 

[DumbDude42]

Any army sure but most the incompetent military organization in history still is the Imperial Russian Navy during the Russo-Japanese War, holy shit though the ANA are a strong second.

its a different kind of fail

the russian navy fought, and lost disasterously
these afghans on the other hand simply decided to surrender immediately without even trying to fight

 

[Jet Fuel Johnny]

Ryan Zinke wrote about seal ops missing their chance on VIPs in serbia because top brass wanted all the contingencies in place. Zinke wrote about a general wondering if dogs would sniff out hiding seals so they had to run smell tests with dogs with testes and dogs without testes to see if dogs with tests had better sense of smell (they didn't know if the serb dogs had testes or not). by the time they figured it out, the serb they wanted had moved somewhere else. same with getting bin laden.

SOCOM has been worthless for fucking decades unless they get two months to suck CIA dick, then everything practically handed to them.

I knew a lot of 'Nam guys who HATED Special Forces, because SF would bite off more than they could chew then scream for regular Army to help them, then prance around two days later like they'd won the battle all by themselves.

We saw in the early days of the GWOT in Afghanistan that FOUR FUCKING TIMES Regular Army found OBL but the White House and the Pentagon made them hold position while they slooooooooowly got the SEALS out of bed or pulled them off the underage pussy they had bought, briefed them, had the CIA brief them, explained everything in small words, drew them pretty pictures, then flew them on helicopters into the area, only to find out that OBL basically moonwalked out of there while playing a brass band. There was some shit around the capture of Saddam too.

The fact that we won't run patrols into the city to rescue Americans show that this is all about OPTICS. Fuck your lives, fuck your oaths, fuck your duty, can't have the Biden Administration have to explain how we lost a dozen 18 year old hammerheads rescuing civilians when they can just quietly cover up some vanished people. Military will want to convene boards of inquiry, they'll want to investigate, there will be awards as well as paying out life insurance for soldiers, with a long paper trail years long in DFAS and dozens of other systems, where the State Department can just delete the people that vanish.

And the fact "You're making us look bad" not "Can you grab our guys too, ol' buddy ol' pal?" makes me judge every officer and SNCO at Regimental level and above.

I knew these guys in the upper ranks were fuckups. I joked sometimes to friends about how the GWOT guys can fight little firefights but anything bigger than a couple score goat fuckers with AK's and they'd be fucking screwed, but I didn't think it was this fucking bad.

And that fucking video. Jesus Christ.

 

[Niggernerd]

What credibility?

View attachment 2463705

Just give em to the taliban. Its a worthless apology gift but its a start

 

[Niggernerd]

Apparently Biden had to be browbeaten into agreeing to the meeting. Looks like a lot of our allies are starting to notice the absentee president.
View attachment 2463371

G7 foreign ministers speak as Biden hangs back

Washington had to be ‘bounced’ into agreeing to the call, says UK government official.

www.politico.eu

The adults are back in the office!

 

[IAmNotAlpharius]

According to Plebbit, the Taliban have immense spiritual power and are BTFOing witches who try casting hexes on them and astrally projecting against them.

View attachment 2462432
View attachment 2462433

They even have a subreddit dedicated to their intense magick workings, now.

r/BewitchTheTaliban

r/BewitchTheTaliban: A group of magickal practitioners who have taken up the use of magick for the betterment of Afghanistan whether by blessing …

www.reddit.com

Someone asked if it was possible to hex Allah directly. The comments are fucking golden.

View attachment 2462443

I wish I could give you a semper fi. I love seeing neo-pagans getting btfo’d by the emissaries of Allah.

 

[Urbanmech]

SOCOM has been worthless for fucking decades unless they get two months to suck CIA dick, then everything practically handed to them.

I knew a lot of 'Nam guys who HATED Special Forces, because SF would bite off more than they could chew then scream for regular Army to help them, then prance around two days later like they'd won the battle all by themselves.

We saw in the early days of the GWOT in Afghanistan that FOUR FUCKING TIMES Regular Army found OBL but the White House and the Pentagon made them hold position while they slooooooooowly got the SEALS out of bed or pulled them off the underage pussy they had bought, briefed them, had the CIA brief them, explained everything in small words, drew them pretty pictures, then flew them on helicopters into the area, only to find out that OBL basically moonwalked out of there while playing a brass band. There was some shit around the capture of Saddam too.

The fact that we won't run patrols into the city to rescue Americans show that this is all about OPTICS. Fuck your lives, fuck your oaths, fuck your duty, can't have the Biden Administration have to explain how we lost a dozen 18 year old hammerheads rescuing civilians when they can just quietly cover up some vanished people. Military will want to convene boards of inquiry, they'll want to investigate, there will be awards as well as paying out life insurance for soldiers, with a long paper trail years long in DFAS and dozens of other systems, where the State Department can just delete the people that vanish.

And the fact "You're making us look bad" not "Can you grab our guys too, ol' buddy ol' pal?" makes me judge every officer and SNCO at Regimental level and above.

I knew these guys in the upper ranks were fuckups. I joked sometimes to friends about how the GWOT guys can fight little firefights but anything bigger than a couple score goat fuckers with AK's and they'd be fucking screwed, but I didn't think it was this fucking bad.

And that fucking video. Jesus Christ.

It's always about Optics take Saddam's son getting bombed out of existence by a B-1 bomber. At that time we had B-52's providing Close air support by doing Nascar circles in the sky for hours above Iraq. But no couldn't use those because we had to justify the B-1, a useless bomber now, and let them kill the kid instead of the tried and true BUFF.

 

[DelusionTree]

its a different kind of fail

the russian navy fought, and lost disasterously
these afghans on the other hand simply decided to surrender immediately without even trying to fight

The ANA did fight early on after the May deadline passed but got completely BTFO in the first couple battles and kept retreating and surrendering all the way up to Kabul.
There are some parallels to the Imperial Russian Navy, horribly corrupt leadership leeching money from the government with a bunch of barely trained peasants and degenerates.

 

[Disheveled Human]

B..B.But guys China will take over Afghanistan and somehow shape it into a formidable nation the US could not in 20 years. Maybe shit was discarded because it was irredemable garbage and we strip mined it out?

 

[theshitposter]

In my experience with muslims, for a no fun allowed buzzkill religion they have some whacky superstitions and nonsensical understandings of the world. I recall a buddy asking a interpreter asking why muslims don't like dogs and he told us this long and hard to follow story about pilgrims being met by an Islamic angel or some spiritual entity but the entity was scared off by a pet dog that started growling and barking at it. We had an in house joke that the dog was trying to warn the pilgrims about a demon and muslims are followers of the devil. (some American children have a belief pet dogs and cats howling at nothing in your house at night are actually warding off ghosts, demons or some evil invisible entity to protect their human owners). Also at the Bazaars you always strike down the first offer for a babble as according to some of the locals this is tradition when negotiating or trading goods and services even if you already know the average price or think the first price offered is fair. It's only rational that these loser reddit wizards when researching Afghans they get taken aback over them believing in witchcraft and having wards or charms to protect against them. Isn't witchcraft punishable by death in most muslim countries?

I thought Muslims didn't like dogs because they view them as unclean.

The dominant religion in Persia before the Islamic Conquest (Zoroastrianism) had a view of dogs similar to that of how ancient Egyptians viewed cats. Not quite deities, but something almost like agents of the deity. The Zoroastrians literally considered a house to not be a home without a dog in it. In any event, they revered dogs.

The Islamic disdain of dogs might be nothing more than a backlash over this, since Persia was their first real conquest outside the Saudi peninsula.

'slims hate dogs cuz they don't want their daughters and wives to stray away...

 

[MG-34]

 

[Iceland Heavy]

Where's Rostum, and what role is he intending in the future?

If you mean Abdul Rashid Dostum, supposedly linking up with ANA remnants in Panjshir to spend the last few years of his life LARPing the Northern Alliance again. None of it's confirmed yet though and he could just be hiding in Uzbekistan.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

View attachment 2463649
View attachment 2463648

That explains why "NPR is a well known far right media outlet" was trending on twitter.

Remember, only people who are 100% lockstep in line with the woke globohomo uniparty are left wing. Everything else is far right and must be ignored or even better, destroyed.

 

[Cubanodun]

View attachment 2464500

JAJAJAJAJAJAJAJA WHAT? Just wait until the colombians flip their shit about this, they HATE immigrants because of us