Ask a professional

[HOMO FOR LIFE]

Should I buy the dip

 

[Agent Abe Caprine]

Is buying five hundred thousand packs of fancy instant ramen a good investment? Asking for a friend.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Is buying five hundred thousand packs of fancy instant ramen a good investment? Asking for a friend.

Unironically, yes.

I'll get back to you guys later to answer more questions.

 

[RussianParasite]

Unironically, yes.

I'll get back to you guys later to answer more questions.

I have taken several long positions on semiconductor manufacturers (global shortage and all that). What positions are you taking? You’re OP gives me the impression that you are “oh shit” bearish on the entire market in general, but maybe I am misreading things.

 

[Quantum Diabetes]

What manufacturer of Shea butter should I get stonks in?

 

[Shadfan666xxx000]

Is GME gonna moon again?

 

[Simple Moving Average]

How bad is the inflation gonna be and what do I do about it?
Edit: also why ten days?

I'll talk inflation in a separate post.

In the past 10 days, I've had to deal with the following headaches (presented in no particular order)

-GME or rather its effects. Most of my clients know that if you see your grandchildren a couple of times a year and they spend their entire visit telling you what stocks to buy, it's probably a good time to get out. This was expected and the easiest concern to alleviate. What was unexpected was them being shown the Petterfy interview. He has caused a myriad of problems and not only for us. I wish no harm upon the man (I actually used to look up to him) as he just got greedy (almost everyone does) and simply misspoke, and this is NOT a threat, but I fully expect to read his obit before the year is out.

-The biggest planned play for the year was supposed to be in physical metal. It was going to hit all bases: flight to safety, inflation hedge, Basel3. First had to jump through a lot of regulatory hoops and get client permission, which we did. Then we had to take necessary preparations for things like transport, assessment, storage, security, insurance etc. Target allocation based on market conditions. Then had to inform clients that not only did our target allocation more than triple, but also that we couldn't get delivery on even 5% of our original target. There was some chatter recently about COMEX selling contracts for silver that were called for delivery to JPM, who promptly cancelled them. I thought it was fearmongering but unfortunately it seems to be true.

-Crypto flash crash

-Look at this graph: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/m1
If your first takeaway is 'graph go up', well at least you have one functioning eye. If the first thing you noticed was the word DISCONTINUED, you might understand why this gave analysts and asset managers around the world a proverbial heart attack. Currently there's a link with an alternative time series but for the first couple of hours, that link wasn't there and the implication was that the Fed was signaling that it either wasnt willing or able to report the amount of dollars in circulation. Now you can worry about the graph. The Fed says it's just money moving from M2 to M1 and while that could be true, this will have gigantic consequences whether it's true or not.

-Powell's last two speeches where he used a lot of words to say nothing at all

There's more but these were the main causes of the headaches of the past two weeks.

I could go on and on about this and may expand on it if you're interested and I can find the time.

EDIT: to add to these professional headaches, personal matters had to be attended to as well. We (meaning my family) are moving. For tax purposes.

 

[Kosher Dill]

If you have a content creation company that pays taxes

Yeah, well about that...

 

[Simple Moving Average]

anyone who takes financial advice from an autist on the internet deserves everything that's coming to them.

well we all know your kind of guys...

prepare to loss all your money

If you base your investment decisions on the writings of some random schizophrenic on a forum focused on documenting the antics of a 40 year old autist living with his mother, with a penchant for laughing at transgenders, that is viewed by outsiders as a den of antisemitism and hate towards minorities, you should probably get yourself checked into a mental institution and leave the investment decisions to a professional. At no stage did I even hint at providing any advice on what to invest in and in fact, I clearly outlined the value you could expect to derive from these writings in the OP.

However, if you want to know what day of the week today is, and you ask someone who you know to always lie, you can still use their answer to reduce your search window by almost 15%.

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE]

Should we expect the correction the continue through the match. Thx

 

[cantankerous jackalope]

Answer my question faggot

 

[Simple Moving Average]

How much do you make per year?

Good question. I'll try to answer as comprehensively as I can without powerleveling too much.

The answer to your question depends on how you look at it and on performance.

Regardless of performance, there's a lot of cost associated with running a fund or multiple funds. Office space, accountants, terminals, travel and a lot more. These costs always have to be paid but put no money in my pocket.

Let's say we have a bad year and don't make any money. If we're either flat for the year or post a loss, I take home the gross national median yearly wage twice adjusted for inflation (since wage reporting has a 1y lag and you don't know performance until the year ends).

When I started doing this, I decided I couldn't possibly provide a more valuable service than someone with what I consider the most important profession in the world: the pediatric oncologist. As such, my max take home pay is what they make, gross net (as their wage is tax-exempt or at least used to be) and adjusted for inflation.

If my claim to compensation is larger than that amount (it's a percentage of profits), I donate to eligible family members up to the max tax-deductible amount. The remainder is divided among the children's fund we run, the mortgage fund and a charity I won't specify because I'd like to not be identified.

I hope this answers your question.

Answer my question faggot

Congrats, you just moved to the back of the line

If you are so great with money why do you still need a job and are not investing and getting mad stonks yourself?

I don't technically need to do this. To quote what someone dear to my heart told me when they first saw me doing this: 'this is your World of Warcraft'. I have been fortunate enough to make a living doing what (at least to me) amounts to playing a video game. It's not about the money and it never was. I just love the game.

Also, I own at least 10% of every fund except for the children's fund. I own 50% minus the proverbial dollar of the fund I spend most of my time on, because I'm not legally allowed to own more and still be open to outside investment.

 

[Uncle June]

Do you overall recommend an average cost basis when investing? Ie buying stonks, crypto, and PMs on a reoccurring basis regardless of the "dip."

I've always followed ACB for my investing career, but recently you could say I've become deluded. It seems like, with all the fear goading about a market crash, that it may be best to wait a bit for said crash to happen. Idk though, want another opinion on the matter.

 

[Stoneheart]

If you base your investment decisions on the writings of some random schizophrenic on a forum focused on documenting the antics of a 40 year old autist living with his mother, with a penchant for laughing at transgenders, that is viewed by outsiders as a den of antisemitism and hate towards minorities, you should probably get yourself checked into a mental institution and leave the investment decisions to a professional.

You sure about that? not many Professionals who outperform the Index in legal ways.

-The biggest planned play for the year was supposed to be in physical metal. It was going to hit all bases: flight to safety, inflation hedge, Basel3. First had to jump through a lot of regulatory hoops and get client permission, which we did. Then we had to take necessary preparations for things like transport, assessment, storage, security, insurance etc. Target allocation based on market conditions. Then had to inform clients that not only did our target allocation more than triple, but also that we couldn't get delivery on even 5% of our original target. There was some chatter recently about COMEX selling contracts for silver that were called for delivery to JPM, who promptly cancelled them. I thought it was fearmongering but unfortunately it seems to be true.

And you call yourself professional? EVERYBODY knows that COMEX Paper metals are a giant scam... But im very happy about this trade. It will make my real metals very expensive once It Implodes.

The Fed says it's just money moving from M2 to M1 and while that could be true, this will have gigantic consequences whether it's true or not.

What else could it be? Who done it, how did he do it and why are all way more interesting. Or was it the FED moving the definitions around`?

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Do you write for Zerohedge by any chance?

No. ZeroHedge is a Russian psyop that edits articles retroactively to appear clairvoyant. They also run paid ads by big names disguised as articles to scare plebes into making bad decisions.

That being said, if you know how things work and what to look for, they can sometimes provide useful information.

On the whole, if you inverse what you read there, you'll probably make money more often than not.


I'm gonna watch a movie with the wife and kids so don't expect any new replies in the next few hours.

Damn.
How much tech exposure did you get lol.

I am actually up 5% within last 5 days.

Exposure to popular tech was very limited and not of any significant concern. See previous post about what caused headaches.

From your previous posts, you do seem like you know what you're talking about regarding investing and finance.

My questions would be:
1) why are you getting shitfaced and what was the exact thing that caused "FUCK"? Without getting too much in the weeds, I assume its to do with the 10 year yield and operation twist 2.0 coming up? 1.51 yield caused some panic. rising 10 year yield + strong dollar = an implosion in the debt market = market goes tits up. Cash goes into other assets.

2) If I'm correct about #1, I would be interested in your plays? I'm going crypto + PMs + oil/energy.

TBH, there's so many bubbles right now, a massive stock and massive real estate bubble, hyper-mega debt bubble...so many assets are so massively inflated that its hard to find any price discovery in them. When I hear some hedge fund friends panic, I have to wonder which potential shithouse is going up.

1. See previous post. Concerns are indeed climbing yields, reaching dividend yield parity or exceeding it, but also inflation, money supply increasing and systemic vulnerability.

2. We're positioned for every outcome and flexible enough to change to the winning strategy when it emerges. The only class we don't have any major exposure to currently is crypto. After the flash crash we made an EW basket of 5 majors and I want to see 5 consecutive days of the basket above 105 with none of its components dipping below 100. Hasn't happened so far. I'll expand on positions in a later post.

We're concerned with getting an everything bubble. I think we're going to see it.

 

[Thebag$$$]

whats the most money.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

I have taken several long positions on semiconductor manufacturers (global shortage and all that). What positions are you taking? You’re OP gives me the impression that you are “oh shit” bearish on the entire market in general, but maybe I am misreading things.

I'll talk positioning later.

Regarding markets, I'm short term bearish, medium term neutral and naturally long term bullish. I could be wrong. It wouldn't matter. As long as markets aren't flat and we can still trade, there's always money to be made or at least currency.

However, over the past couple of days I've become more and more bearish on inflation, growth, social stability and the U.S. financial system as a whole.

Is GME gonna moon again?

Probably.

 

[RussianParasite]

It will make my real metals very expensive once It Implodes.

Metals, at least ones with industrial applications (base and ferrous), are almost all trading at or near all time highs right now. Most will likely revert back to their historical averages, but physical silver should enter a supply deficit in the next 2-3 years. I’d probably keep plowing into that investment if you are already making it regardless of CME shenanigans.

 

[Spunt]

Could you clear something up for me? I've had an opportunity to invest in a biotech startup in California, but I'm based in the UK. Do you have to be an Accredited Investor with the SEC to make a "friends and family" investment into a private company in the US from abroad? The advice I've got on this side of the Pond has been contradictory. I do fulfil the criteria, but I'd rather not hand all my info over to the feds if I don't have to and it could make my tax situation here incredibly complicated. I've been told variously that it's 100% necessary, that I don't have to register but I do need to prove I meet the criteria to the company, and that I don't need to meet them at all, which of course is super helpful. I've looked at the relevant law but IANAL and it may as well be written in heiroglyphs.

What do you think the long-term outlook is for biotech post-Coof?

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Should we expect the correction the continue through the match. Thx

If you mean March, then yes. Big players like pension funds, SWTs, mutuals etc. haven't even begun repositioning yet, because they're simply not allowed. The lucky ones get to rebalance every quarter, some twice a year and some only annually. Expect to see more vol around quarter change this quarter and the next.

Do you overall recommend an average cost basis when investing? Ie buying stonks, crypto, and PMs on a reoccurring basis regardless of the "dip."

I've always followed ACB for my investing career, but recently you could say I've become deluded. It seems like, with all the fear goading about a market crash, that it may be best to wait a bit for said crash to happen. Idk though, want another opinion on the matter.

Generally you should always be DCAing. It's also smart to always keep some powder dry to buy corrections etc. If you're an index investor and are smart and able and have the time, you could sell or buy less on rising p/e and buy on declining.

I don't know what you mean with ACB but making investment decisions based on a fear of the sky falling down is usually not a good idea. I might spend a post on it.

You sure about that? not many Professionals who outperform the Index in legal ways.


And you call yourself professional? EVERYBODY knows that COMEX Paper metals are a giant scam... But im very happy about this trade. It will make my real metals very expensive once It Implodes.


What else could it be? Who done it, how did he do it and why are all way more interesting. Or was it the FED moving the definitions around`?

It's pretty clear that you don't know how any of this works. I expected more from someone claiming to be minor European nobility, 'Freiherr' Steinhart.

Big boys like pension funds are always going to have index like returns, that's the goal and only possible outcome. They weren't allowed to buy Microsoft back when it was trading for 25c split adj because the stock price was too low (yes really), almost no analyst covered it, it was an unproven industry and most importantly, practically no institutional ownership. They have to wait until their criteria are met and one of them buys in, then the rest of the herd follows because they don't want performance divergence. They're also not allowed to take majority stakes which means a 1T pension fund is going to end up owning a small part of everything. They're very risk averse as a group. What percentage probability of your grandmother paying into a fund like that for 40 to 50 years and them telling her 5 years into retirement that they're not gonna be able to meet their obligations seems acceptable to you? Actually, don't answer.

The COMEX is not a scam, they've been operating since forever. Do you really think they could exist for so long without ever delivering any phys? Even Maddoff had to pay some of his clients to keep his scheme going. Do GS and JPM and others collude to manipulate prices? Sure, they do it in FX and interest rates and anything they're involved in and can get away with. Regardless of the price, the COMEX still has to deliver. Where do you think Sprott gets his silver for his PSLV? Unrefined straight from the mine?

The definitions of the different money supplies are expansive and subject to change, yes. But I'm getting the feeling you don't know how that works, either.