Ask a professional

[world of shit]

Well crap, that was my plan B, would you recommend any other metals? I remember people mentioning this stuff that was even rarer than platinum, tons of industrial use too so its not just expensive because theres little of it

tbh, when the market finally goes goes tits up whether it be an implosion in the debt market due to rising yields, stock bubble popping, inflation, or all of the above, everything will tank, even cryptos. How much and what ratio is the unknown here.
There's still a lot of money to be had in the market. Things will go much higher until it finally doesn't, and then it'll be bad.

I am in crypto, PMs, and oil/energy, but I have a nice nest egg of fiat for buying when things do bottom out.

Also, don't forgot to prioritize the essentials over investment. Right now more than ever you should have a year's supply of food and water, guns+ammo, survival gear + training, fiat in hand, meds.

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE]

tbh, when the market finally goes goes tits up whether it be an implosion in the debt market due to rising yields, stock bubble popping, inflation, or all of the above, everything will tank, even cryptos. How much and what ratio is the unknown here.
There's still a lot of money to be had in the market. Things will go much higher until it finally doesn't, and then it'll be bad.

I am in crypto, PMs, and oil/energy, but I have a nice nest egg of fiat for buying when things do bottom out.

Also, don't prioritize the essentials over investment. Right now more than ever you should have a year's supply of food and water, guns+ammo, survival gear + training, fiat in hand, meds.

I have a year's worth of meds. Oh yeah.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

I vaguely recall trying to tell you guys about the things you're seeing but I might be misremembering..

 

[Merrick]

Who the fuck writes their own database system rather than use something from oracle/MS?

Would it help obscure what they're doing from unfriendly feds?

 

[Uncle June]

I vaguely recall trying to tell you guys about the things you're seeing but I might be misremembering..

Both you and @world of shit have consistently been right about many things.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Both you and @world of shit have consistently been right about many things.

Thanks. I really wish I wasn't. I honestly really do.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

They hope for something like that. Big boys like CalPERS have to outperform the Index in most years to not hurt the Budget.

Retirement Fund Giant Calpers Votes to Use Leverage, More Alternative Assets

The board of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target, even after lowering that target just a few months ago.

www.wsj.com

Oh no no no laugh

46 seconds of derisive laughter.

youtu.be

 

[Autistic Joe]

Retirement Fund Giant Calpers Votes to Use Leverage, More Alternative Assets

The board of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target, even after lowering that target just a few months ago.

www.wsj.com

Oh no no no laugh

46 seconds of derisive laughter.

youtu.be

Archive here for anyone who doesn't have a WSJ id.

From the article...

• Board members approved borrowing and investing an amount equivalent to 5% of the fund’s value.
• Trustees increased private-equity holdings to 13% from 8%, and added 5% allocation to private debt.
• Funds are hundreds of billions of dollars short, even after 2021 returns hit a 30-year-record.

Sure, because it's the PERFECT time to go leveraged, add +5% private-equity, and add +5% private-debt, when we're this over-extended in one of the biggest bubbles in history. The amazing thing is how did they even have a shortfall this year? They really better hope the Fed's money machine keeps on brrr'ing.

 

[WinnieTheJew]

How jewish are you?

I jaywalk to pick up change.

 

[Hippopatumus]

I'm currently 40% PM / 40% USD / 10% Crypto. No equities other than play money. I plan to hold the PM for ten years, no plan for the rest other than to stay safe and pay my bills. My only debt is my mortgage.

This is an almost aggressively war-time portfolio. Would you position differently?

 

[Simple Moving Average]

I'm currently 40% PM / 40% USD / 10% Crypto. No equities other than play money. I plan to hold the PM for ten years, no plan for the rest other than to stay safe and pay my bills. My only debt is my mortgage.

This is an almost aggressively war-time portfolio. Would you position differently?

Both for myself and for others: yes, I would position very, very differently.

 

[Autistic Joe]

I'm currently 40% PM / 40% USD / 10% Crypto. No equities other than play money. I plan to hold the PM for ten years, no plan for the rest other than to stay safe and pay my bills. My only debt is my mortgage.

This is an almost aggressively war-time portfolio. Would you position differently?

I'd keep the PM & Crypto to no more than 10% each, and even that's a bit aggressive. The simplest answer for the rest is a basic blended fund (50/50, 60/40, 70/30, 80/20, etc., depending on your age & risk tolerance), leaving maybe 5-10% aside in cash (and have periodic contributions go to cash as well) so you can redeploy to the other slots after a correction or when the weights get too out of balance. If blended funds aren't available then just DIY and pick a few "total market" etf's like VTI and BND to achieve a stock/bond balance.

You can keep it simple, or get more granular and target specific factors (growth, value, mid-cap, foreign, whatever) with target allocations you like. Or maybe for equities you do half in an index fund and half spread among 5-10 individual stocks that you plan to hold long-term (preferably dividend payers). You might want to take a look at M1 Finance -- it's free, easy to use, and they have a great setup to help you maintain target allocations without having to micromanage. No crypto though, you'd have to keep that somewhere else. But they do have some crypto-adjacent stocks and funds like RIOT, MARA, COIN, BITO, etc.

If you decide to take a route like I described, I would caution against "jumping right in" since the markets are very over-extended right now after this huge run the past 20 months. Maybe nibble your way towards the desired allocations, 5% or 10% per month. Good luck, hope this helps!

 

[TheRetardKing]

I think I dropped my quarter down in the sewer. Is there anyway to get it back?

 

[Hippopatumus]

I'd keep the PM & Crypto to no more than 10% each, and even that's a bit aggressive. The simplest answer for the rest is a basic blended fund (50/50, 60/40, 70/30, 80/20, etc., depending on your age & risk tolerance), leaving maybe 5-10% aside in cash (and have periodic contributions go to cash as well) so you can redeploy to the other slots after a correction or when the weights get too out of balance. If blended funds aren't available then just DIY and pick a few "total market" etf's like VTI and BND to achieve a stock/bond balance.

You can keep it simple, or get more granular and target specific factors (growth, value, mid-cap, foreign, whatever) with target allocations you like. Or maybe for equities you do half in an index fund and half spread among 5-10 individual stocks that you plan to hold long-term (preferably dividend payers). You might want to take a look at M1 Finance -- it's free, easy to use, and they have a great setup to help you maintain target allocations without having to micromanage. No crypto though, you'd have to keep that somewhere else. But they do have some crypto-adjacent stocks and funds like RIOT, MARA, COIN, BITO, etc.

If you decide to take a route like I described, I would caution against "jumping right in" since the markets are very over-extended right now after this huge run the past 20 months. Maybe nibble your way towards the desired allocations, 5% or 10% per month. Good luck, hope this helps!

I assume this is the advice SMA would have given but was too horrified/offended by my portfolio to do so. I actually hope it is because in a way it confirms my personal thesis.

I have and want an aggressively contrarian position, and the advice you gave is what I wanted to hear, specifically because it was what I expected to hear. Had I heard something else I think it would have given me pause.

To be clear I do not think what you said is neccessarily wrong, it sounds like good all around advice and I would not expect to lose money with it. But, I am trying to go against the crowd on this one and set up a position in which I have a very narrow set of success criteria, but an upside that meets my risk appetite. It will be interesting to look back ten years from now to see how my approach pans out. BTW I am not against picking up equities down the road, but I would have to see drastic and foundational changes in the economy and markets before I would care to do so.

Regardless of how foolhardy my positioning may be in the end, I am well on track to my retirement goals and nothing in my portfolio is likely to adversely impact that-- I am at a point where I can afford to make a couple large bets at this point in time and I wish to do so. Thanks.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

I assume this is the advice SMA would have given but was too horrified/offended by my portfolio to do so. I actually hope it is because in a way it confirms my personal thesis.

I have and want an aggressively contrarian position, and the advice you gave is what I wanted to hear, specifically because it was what I expected to hear. Had I heard something else I think it would have given me pause.

To be clear I do not think what you said is neccessarily wrong, it sounds like good all around advice and I would not expect to lose money with it. But, I am trying to go against the crowd on this one and set up a position in which I have a very narrow set of success criteria, but an upside that meets my risk appetite. It will be interesting to look back ten years from now to see how my approach pans out. BTW I am not against picking up equities down the road, but I would have to see drastic and foundational changes in the economy and markets before I would care to do so.

Regardless of how foolhardy my positioning may be in the end, I am well on track to my retirement goals and nothing in my portfolio is likely to adversely impact that-- I am at a point where I can afford to make a couple large bets at this point in time and I wish to do so. Thanks.

Happy to talk positioning privately. There is no perfect portfolio out there that's the 100% best fit for everyone. I wouldn't want anyone to change portfolio composition unnecessarily.

 

[Autistic Joe]

I assume this is the advice SMA would have given but was too horrified/offended by my portfolio to do so. I actually hope it is because in a way it confirms my personal thesis.

I have and want an aggressively contrarian position, and the advice you gave is what I wanted to hear, specifically because it was what I expected to hear. Had I heard something else I think it would have given me pause.

To be clear I do not think what you said is neccessarily wrong, it sounds like good all around advice and I would not expect to lose money with it. But, I am trying to go against the crowd on this one and set up a position in which I have a very narrow set of success criteria, but an upside that meets my risk appetite. It will be interesting to look back ten years from now to see how my approach pans out. BTW I am not against picking up equities down the road, but I would have to see drastic and foundational changes in the economy and markets before I would care to do so.

Regardless of how foolhardy my positioning may be in the end, I am well on track to my retirement goals and nothing in my portfolio is likely to adversely impact that-- I am at a point where I can afford to make a couple large bets at this point in time and I wish to do so. Thanks.

No worries, thanks for the clarification. I was (incorrectly) assuming that you were brand-new to investing, so I was trying to stay as generic and open-ended as possible, much like the advice I received in my youth. But it sounds like you're more in a similar position where I am now - well-seasoned, on track to your goals, and viewing today's markets/economy with a skeptical eye. (I kinda hinted at that last bit when I mentioned over-extended markets. I've been sliding towards a more conservative allocation since 2018, wondering how much more juice we can squeeze from this lemon.)

From what you described, kudos, you're already in a much better situation than the vast majority. I'm not expecting great forward-returns in stocks over the next decade, so your positioning may very well be the safest thing in the end!

 

[Kheapathic]

@Simple Moving Average Question good sir.

So I've seen stocks with a cost of 0. Not a fraction of a cent like 0.00143 or anything, just straight 0. Where the only cost to buying millions of shares is literally the transaction fee. Aside from being able to boast I own a lot of nothing, are there any pros or cons about making a move like this? I'm not expecting something to suddenly change and be able to laugh my way to the bank, but would I possibly run afoul of some sort of law or legislation for doing something stupid as a joke and pissing the wrong people off?

 

[Simple Moving Average]

@Simple Moving Average Question good sir.

So I've seen stocks with a cost of 0. Not a fraction of a cent like 0.00143 or anything, just straight 0. Where the only cost to buying millions of shares is literally the transaction fee. Aside from being able to boast I own a lot of nothing, are there any pros or cons about making a move like this? I'm not expecting something to suddenly change and be able to laugh my way to the bank, but would I possibly run afoul of some sort of law or legislation for doing something stupid as a joke and pissing the wrong people off?

Well, you could own some specific company several times outright. It will not bring you anything. However, I do consider it a national US security risk. If you are interested in this, PM me.

 

[Creepy Joe]

Why are all the somewhat more popular, yet still retarded Twitch streamers and Youtube creators millionaires? Does ad revenue pay really that much? Does that mean that even partnered creators with smaller followings can get a decent amount of money? If you have a full time job, but also get money from Youtube / Patreon / donations, how does the taxing work for those sources of income?

 

[Kheapathic]

Why are all the somewhat more popular, yet still retarded Twitch streamers and Youtube creators millionaires? Does ad revenue pay really that much? Does that mean that even partnered creators with smaller followings can get a decent amount of money? If you have a full time job, but also get money from Youtube / Patreon / donations, how does the taxing work for those sources of income?

Ad revenue is a small part of it. Mid-size to larger streamers get a good portion of their money from subscribers and donations; the more popular ones get sponsorships and sweet heart deals on the backend. There's also Amazon affiliates and T-spring merch that they shill, that can add up. But when I say sponsorship, I'm not just talking about professional e-sports types and not just gamer-chair type shit either; IIRC Pokemane has/had a Nike sponsorship, the girl you never see outside, jogging, or playing sports, has/had a Nike sponsorship, because she gets views. Those big names get those special deals you rarely see; as long as you don't piss the wrong people off and get views, you'll get approached for sponsorships. And don't forget, Twitch will pay to keep people exclusive to their platform, those are for the top 1% and always in the 6-figure plus numbers.