Ask a professional

[Uncle June]

Generally you should always be DCAing. It's also smart to always keep some powder dry to buy corrections etc. If you're an index investor and are smart and able and have the time, you could sell or buy less on rising p/e and buy on declining.

I don't know what you mean with ACB but making investment decisions based on a fear of the sky falling down is usually not a good idea. I might spend a post on it.

Yeah I apologize for that, I've always referred to DCA as ACB (Average Cost Basis).

 

[JamusActimus]

Investing randomly is a good strategy?

 

[Stoneheart]

It's pretty clear that you don't know how any of this works. I expected more from someone claiming to be minor European nobility, 'Freiherr' Steinhart.

thats an interesting interpretation, but im not that stupid or clever, its just something i came across while looking for a name.

Big boys like pension funds are always going to have index like returns, that's the goal and only possible outcome

They hope for something like that. Big boys like CalPERS have to outperform the Index in most years to not hurt the Budget.

They're also not allowed to take majority stakes which means a 1T pension fund is going to end up owning a small part of everything.

For Very good reasons. to much ownership and you will blow yourself up like ARKK..

The COMEX is not a scam, they've been operating since forever. Do you really think they could exist for so long without ever delivering any phys? Even Maddoff had to pay some of his clients to keep his scheme going. Do GS and JPM and others collude to manipulate prices? Sure, they do it in FX and interest rates and anything they're involved in and can get away with. Regardless of the price, the COMEX still has to deliver. Where do you think Sprott gets his silver for his PSLV? Unrefined straight from the mine?

They dont have the Silver to back up even a fraction of their Options. Its mainly a way for banks to manipulate the prices...


There are also other ways of buying Silver and gold than just Comex.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Yeah I apologize for that, I've always referred to DCA as ACB (Average Cost Basis).

As long as you know what you're doing, it doesn't really matter what you call it.

whats the most money.

I don't understand the question but it's definitely not your mom. (I'm so sorry, I couldn't resist.)

Metals, at least ones with industrial applications (base and ferrous), are almost all trading at or near all time highs right now. Most will likely revert back to their historical averages, but physical silver should enter a supply deficit in the next 2-3 years. I’d probably keep plowing into that investment if you are already making it regardless of CME shenanigans.

No, PMs are going to increase in value significantly. See Basel3. Unfortunately if you're a small holder and weren't autistic enough to never talk metal and never take your phone anywhere near a dealer (you're on KF so I'd say your chances are.. surprisingly good actually), you're going to get a visit from government agents when shit hits the proverbial fan and they're looking to confiscate.

Goldbugs and gun fans like to joke about unfortunate boating accidents, but this will only make them mad. If you won't give up your stack voluntarily, they'll simple use a $5 wrench to get you talking. If that doesn't work, expect them to use a $20 blowtorch.

 

[Bussyking7]

Imagine being a CFA lol. I bet you think technical analysis is a great way to pick stocks.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Imagine being a CFA lol. I bet you think technical analysis is a great way to pick stocks.

TA is financial astrology but sometimes it works because enough retards are using it. Also I don't think you have a firm grasp on what the CFA program entails.

 

[Bussyking7]

TA is financial astrology but sometimes it works because enough retards are using it. Also I don't think you have a firm grasp on what the CFA program entails.

I've met some CFA's and they've all been dumber than a bag of rocks and all espoused the virtues of TA. Your own shitty governing body requires you learn that junk. Good on you though for being in the 90th pctile of CFA's. Although, that's like commending someone for being the smartest in their sped class. The whole program is a joke. If the hardest thing you've learned is time series, I wouldn't trust you with cleaning my bathroom let alone spending my money.

 

[world of shit]

1. See previous post. Concerns are indeed climbing yields, reaching dividend yield parity or exceeding it, but also inflation, money supply increasing and systemic vulnerability.

2. We're positioned for every outcome and flexible enough to change to the winning strategy when it emerges. The only class we don't have any major exposure to currently is crypto. After the flash crash we made an EW basket of 5 majors and I want to see 5 consecutive days of the basket above 105 with none of its components dipping below 100. Hasn't happened so far. I'll expand on positions in a later post.

We're concerned with getting an everything bubble. I think we're going to see it.

I told my friend's boomer investing parents #1 when they asked me what the fuck the markets were doing this week. I gave them my schizo take and told them the Fed is either:
a) ready to pull their chips and let the market crash (by design) to institute a digital dollar + fed ownership/control of all, or
b) the fed are going to start controlling the yield to keep the party going on.

From the actions friday (BofA annoucement), it looks like they're going with controlling the yield. Told them the market will go up to levels never seen before before it implodes. The fed's job is to inflate to unimageable levels: buying long term debt and selling short term debt. Kashkari already laid it all out. We are seeing a global level consolidation of wealth by central banks. We're in the middlegame and transitioning towards the endgeame.

Additionally, looks like today the short term stimulus + ETH changes are causing a bid on cryptos.

I've met some CFA's and they've all been dumber than a bag of rocks and all espoused the virtues of TA. Your own shitty governing body requires you learn that junk. Good on you though for being in the 90th pctile of CFA's. Although, that's like commending someone for being the smartest in their sped class. The whole program is a joke. If the hardest thing you've learned is time series, I wouldn't trust you with cleaning my bathroom let alone spending my money.

To be fair, the smartest people are only a percentage above markets on being correct. Most economists can explain to you why a market moved in a way *after* the fact, and they'll say it with such conviction you might believe them.
Quants have their own grabbag of astrology as well. They can rollout new models faster than you can call them wrong.

Everyone is in the dark and grabbing a piece of the elephant and hoping they don't get a load of shit dumped on them.

TA can be useful for very simple things like trendlines/breakouts, and I've always had good luck with fibonnaci retracements, but I wouldn't want to bet my house on only TA.

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE]

How bad of a inflation can we expect

 

[Simple Moving Average]

I've met some CFA's and they've all been dumber than a bag of rocks and all espoused the virtues of TA. Your own shitty governing body requires you learn that junk. Good on you though for being in the 90th pctile of CFA's. Although, that's like commending someone for being the smartest in their sped class. The whole program is a joke. If the hardest thing you've learned is time series, I wouldn't trust you with cleaning my bathroom let alone spending my money.

It was only like a small chapter when I got my charter but maybe they expanded it. I pretty much agree with what you're saying but would also like to point out that getting the charter is practically a requirement if you want to work in the industry. You should of course never give anyone you don't trust any of your money.

How bad of a inflation can we expect

Good question. I'll try and stick to easily verifiable facts and refrain from speculation. I don't know where to start so forgive me if I cant paint a complete enough picture.

Bond yields have been on the rise, recently hitting key levels and reaching dividend yield parity or exceeding it. Shorting treasuries is the most popular trade right now, take a look at repo rates. Powell had two opportunities in the past two weeks to calm markets in this regard but didn't. Australia is implementing yield curve control. China is openly talking about dumping treasuries. MbS has agreed to take payment for oil in yuan and is in full control regarding OPEC production.

SMBs and the self-employed have been showered in debt. Moratoriums on collection and evictions are set to expire shortly.

US M1 money supply has increased to a level that the appropriate axis is no longer linear but logarithmic. This money has to go somewhere and it's probably not back to M2. Look at the Wikipedia article on money supply while they still let you. If you want to know where all that money is going, the answer is everywhere, it's just the proportion question that's speculative. It's going to go in equities, debt, real estate, foreign currency, commodities..

Commodities? Prices have already been rising in anticipation of a recovery. Purchase managers everywhere are reporting massive shortages and it's hard to produce widgets without base materials. Futures curves were already steepening but that has started to accelerate massively. At some point it's going to be attractive to store non-perishables for a while, waiting for further price increases. It's already the case for some types of steel.

Non-perishables? Perishables. Emerging market consumers are already feeling the effects of inflation and are forced to accept eating less. Some countries (large ones) have already introduced price controls and export bans. Harvest expectations are not optimistic to say the least. Western media is already priming its consumers into accepting food price inflation and reduced availability (here's why that's a good thing!). Goldman top execs are leaving en masse, a particularly well known one has joined.. Walmart. The last time regional food shortages and price inflation got out of hand, it was called the Arab Spring.

CBs around the world have been retaking custody of their gold for a long time and are buying as much as they can. You read what I wrote on metal markets already. Basel3 is set to come into effect June 28.

I could say a lot more but I'm not going to speculate in this post. These are all facts you can verify for yourself using sources accepted in the mainstream.

I told my friend's boomer investing parents #1 when they asked me what the fuck the markets were doing this week. I gave them my schizo take and told them the Fed is either:
a) ready to pull their chips and let the market crash (by design) to institute a digital dollar + fed ownership/control of all, or
b) the fed are going to start controlling the yield to keep the party going on.

From the actions friday (BofA annoucement), it looks like they're going with controlling the yield. Told them the market will go up to levels never seen before before it implodes. The fed's job is to inflate to unimageable levels: buying long term debt and selling short term debt. Kashkari already laid it all out. We are seeing a global level consolidation of wealth by central banks. We're in the middlegame and transitioning towards the endgeame.

Additionally, looks like today the short term stimulus + ETH changes are causing a bid on cryptos.

I fear you're right. The ECB has scaled back its asset purchase program back by some 85% last week as well. I heard the same thing but suspect YCC is not in the cards as messaging just after European close is just too much of a coincidence and new US stimmy got approved just in time for a large addition to Bagholders Incorporated membership.

Could you clear something up for me? I've had an opportunity to invest in a biotech startup in California, but I'm based in the UK. Do you have to be an Accredited Investor with the SEC to make a "friends and family" investment into a private company in the US from abroad? The advice I've got on this side of the Pond has been contradictory. I do fulfil the criteria, but I'd rather not hand all my info over to the feds if I don't have to and it could make my tax situation here incredibly complicated. I've been told variously that it's 100% necessary, that I don't have to register but I do need to prove I meet the criteria to the company, and that I don't need to meet them at all, which of course is super helpful. I've looked at the relevant law but IANAL and it may as well be written in heiroglyphs.

What do you think the long-term outlook is for biotech post-Coof?

I can't provide any useful advice except to consult with the SEC itself. That being said, if I was an industry outsider I'd feel pretty confident having read and marked the relevant passages found in the law and giving them to a notary for safekeeping together with the contracts and documentation proving my longtime friendship with the relevant people.

Biotech is the future but I'm not making big bets until I see solid earnings from an approved product being sold in the marketplace. It's better to miss the first price doubling or two rather than lose your shirt. If they're attractive today with no earnings, they'll be doubly attractive tomorrow when they do have earnings.

I am making small short term bets however but this is called speculation and not investment.

 

[RussianParasite]

No, PMs are going to increase in value significantly.

That’s literally what I said. Base and ferrous metal prices are likely to come off here this year, but physical PM markets, especially silver, are entering into the a supply deficit in the coming years . Supply deficit = higher prices...

 

[Thebag$$$]

I don't understand the question but it's definitely not your mom. (I'm so sorry, I couldn't resist.)

whats in it for the money.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

whats in it for the money.

I cant tell whether you're having a stroke or I am

 

[Bussyking7]

To be fair, the smartest people are only a percentage above markets on being correct. Most economists can explain to you why a market moved in a way *after* the fact, and they'll say it with such conviction you might believe them.
Quants have their own grabbag of astrology as well. They can rollout new models faster than you can call them wrong.

Not really. You can describe long run markets with a mathematically rigorous foundation. Martingale convergence, Brownian motion, Shannon entropy etc. With the quant approach you at least have a rigorous foundation to work from. Funds like Two sigma or Renaissance require some concrete theoretical results before they begin to implement their fancy computational models. They don't just spew Machine learning or some other such nonsense.

TA can be useful for very simple things like trendlines/breakouts, and I've always had good luck with fibonnaci retracements, but I wouldn't want to bet my house on only TA.

Hahahaha. You do realize fibonnaci retracements are a complete pseudoscience that's literally equivalent to throwing a dart on a board?

It was only like a small chapter when I got my charter but maybe they expanded it. I pretty much agree with what you're saying but would also like to point out that getting the charter is practically a requirement if you want to work in the industry. You should of course never give anyone you don't trust any of your money.

You definitely do not need a CFA to manage funds.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

That’s literally what I said. Base and ferrous metal prices are likely to come off here this year, but physical PM markets, especially silver, are entering into the a supply deficit in the coming years . Supply deficit = higher prices...

Supply deficits will increase prices yes but that won't be the main driver. I'm also expecting further price increases for practically all metals due to aforementioned inflation.

You definitely do not need a CFA to manage funds.

True but hedgie internship selections are brutal and every qualification helps. I'm not claiming I got in due to the CFA but I also haven't regretted getting it for even a single second.

 

[Thebag$$$]

I cant tell whether you're having a stroke or I am

whats the problem now a simple question: what is it for the cash????.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

whats the problem now a simple question: what is it for the cash????.

If you're asking about my earnings, that question was answered upthread.

If your question is different, try posting it in your native language. I'll use Google translate

 

[Thebag$$$]

If you're asking about my earnings, that question was answered upthread.

If your question is different, try posting it in your native language. I'll use Google translate

у чему су паре.

 

[world of shit]

Hahahaha. You do realize fibonnaci retracements are a complete pseudoscience that's literally equivalent to throwing a dart on a board?

Like most things in modern theory, they become useful because people believe in them and use them. If you have tons of traders using the retracement levels, they become a target, and thus a useful thing to keep in mind.
That said, like I mentioned before, I would never bet a house on anything TA related. I believe quant models can be more useful, but not dramatically different.

Like I said, quant is still reading tea-leaves, but it's a step up from TA. I can model data through a number of different methods: just because they have basis in a physical or mathematical theory which model sequences, doesn't mean they're useful. I'm sure you can use DMC to model markets, but knowing when to synthesis the data, at what time frame, and where still is a problem. This also ignores the majority of non-data action, such as the fed controlling yields, suppressing rates, stimulus.

 

[Bussyking7]

True but hedgie internship selections are brutal and every qualification helps. I'm not claiming I got in due to the CFA but I also haven't regretted getting it for even a single second.

Getting an internship at a random hedge fund is a joke. Just get enrolled in a marginally prestigious undergrad program and places like Citadel will already be knocking on your door. I'd be shocked if a CFA helped you at all vs them accepting every semi competent person they could find. In fact, I know of hedge funds where having qualifications like a CFA will be a hindrance to getting hired.

Like most things in modern theory, they become useful because people believe in them and use them. If you have tons of traders using the retracement levels, they become a target, and thus a useful thing to keep in mind.
That said, like I mentioned before, I would never bet a house on anything TA related. I believe quant models can be more useful, but not dramatically different.

It's good to keep in mind, but in the inverse direction. You're not profiting off the retards since they're all doing the same as you are.

Like I said, quant is still reading tea-leaves, but it's a step up from TA. I can model data through a number of different methods: just because they have basis in a physical or mathematical theory which model sequences, doesn't mean they're useful. I'm sure you can use DMC to model markets, but knowing when to synthesis the data, at what time frame, and where still is a problem. This also ignores the majority of non-data action, such as the fed controlling yields, suppressing rates, stimulus.

The mathematical foundation only provides theoretical guarantees about long run pricing and bounds on risk. Of course, that on its own is not going to make any money, but it definitely helps ground short run ideas in some sense of reality.