Ask a professional

[world of shit]

The mathematical foundation only provides theoretical guarantees about long run pricing and bounds on risk. Of course, that on its own is not going to make any money, but it definitely helps ground short run ideas in some sense of reality.

I can agree on this approach. In my experience, Qualitative is 80% of the work work (DCF analysis, etc), where quantitative serves as support for the target.

Just to be clear, I do not have an educational background in investing or finance, and mostly self-taught. I just have worked on enough quant data modeling projects, predictive analysis, data science, and ancillary support engineering systems to get a decent idea how the big dogs act, and try to emulate them (including some hedge funds that would get eggs thrown at me if people knew).

Getting an internship at a random hedge fund is a joke. Just get enrolled in a marginally prestigious undergrad program and places like Citadel will already be knocking on your door. I'd be shocked if a CFA helped you at all vs them accepting every semi competent person they could find. In fact, I know of hedge funds where having qualifications like a CFA will be a hindrance to getting hired.

Unfortunately very true. I worked as a consultant at one, and met a lot of philosophy/anthro major, but they were all from top 10s schools. However, for hiring nothing but top talent, they have the biggest clusterfucks of systems/software I've ever seen. Who the fuck writes their own database system rather than use something from oracle/MS? And who writes that custom database system to rely on recursion for table relationships.

However, if you're a women, to get an internship at a HF, just be attractive. I am not joking. My jaw dropped on my first day. Literally every women was a 10.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Getting an internship at a random hedge fund is a joke. Just get enrolled in a marginally prestigious undergrad program and places like Citadel will already be knocking on your door. I'd be shocked if a CFA helped you at all vs them accepting every semi competent person they could find. In fact, I know of hedge funds where having qualifications like a CFA will be a hindrance to getting hired.

I have no idea what the internship landscape looks like right now. Maybe you're right and all you need now is an IQ above room temperature. Different times I guess. You're probably in the US where a handful of new hedge funds pop up every other day now and they're all competing for talent. The landscape was different when I started out. Hedgies weren't actively recruiting on campus back then over here (non-US) and you had to seek them out or know the right people.

However, if you're a women, to get an internship at a HF, just be attractive. I am not joking. My jaw dropped on my first day. Literally every women was a 10.

Oh the women.. so pretty, so distracting. Good for getting and keeping clients, sometimes useful for keeping employees happy but besides that.. when I read what Cathie is doing, you don't need to wonder why you usually don't see them in other roles..

 

[cantankerous jackalope]

OP you're being very rude

 

[Simple Moving Average]

OP you're being very rude

Haha I didn't forget about you.

Do the call play, as long as you have the collateral, don't need it for the time you're planning to hold them and aren't the one writing them. You'll probably do well on them. Don't blame me if they expire worthless (they probably won't but you never know).

 

[world of shit]

Oh the women.. so pretty, so distracting. Good for getting and keeping clients, sometimes useful for keeping employees happy but besides that.. when I read what Cathie is doing, you don't need to wonder why you usually don't see them in other roles..

When I was getting my security card and badge. The HR lady was a frumpy, middle-aged women. Figured that bitch must really know her shit to beat out the competition of so much younger 'talent'.

And the company food, oh my god. Lunch: fresh Sushi chefs. Brunch break: tiramisu and coffee. Dinner: smoked steak or bbq. Fridays were beer bash + bbq.

I was considering moving and working full time at the place, but they literally expect 60-80hr work weeks. And a small condo near the place was worth 5x of my house. I wonder how they did during covid, because coming into work sick was like a badge of honor, and people would loudly say "don't get too close I have pneumonia"...WTF. Also, its weird having psychopaths as coworkers.

 

[Uncle June]

Oh the women.. so pretty, so distracting. Good for getting and keeping clients, sometimes useful for keeping employees happy but besides that.. when I read what Cathie is doing, you don't need to wonder why you usually don't see them in other roles..

Not to mention flirtatious and opportunistic. I can offer a story that 100% attests to that.

Slight powerlevel but I'm a certain engineer that works extensively in buildings of high profile clients. I worked in an office of an unspecified hedgefund once, where I was going to offer a bid for a job there.

This one woman, couldn't be any older than 25, locked eyes with me and licked her lips, pawed at her booby a bit, and finishing by showing off some cleavage. She must've thought I was someone more important than I was, like a potential investor.

It through me off guard because IRL I'm a pathetic permavirgin turbosperg, but it woke me up to the fact that women can get anything they want with their bodies. Dont get me wrong, more power to them for using their "assets" effectively, but its pretty clear why they're there.

Every other person working there was a fat, balding mid forties boomer with two ex wives and 3 resentful kids, yet the sole exceptions were the young, attractive women. Doesn't take a genius.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Not to mention flirtatious and opportunistic. I can offer a story that 100% attests to that.

Slight powerlevel but I'm a certain engineer that works extensively in buildings of high profile clients. I worked in an office of an unspecified hedgefund once, where I was going to offer a bid for a job there.

This one woman, couldn't be any older than 25, locked eyes with me and licked her lips, pawed at her booby a bit, and finishing by showing off some cleavage. She must've thought I was someone more important than I was, like a potential investor.

It through me off guard because IRL I'm a pathetic permavirgin turbosperg, but it woke me up to the fact that women can get anything they want with their bodies. Dont get me wrong, more power to them for using their "assets" effectively, but its pretty clear why they're there.

Every other person working there was a fat, balding mid forties boomer with two ex wives and 3 resentful kids, yet the sole exceptions were the young, attractive women. Doesn't take a genius.

It certainly attracts a certain type. I can't say I blame them. I also can't say I have any respect for them. I'd say caveat emptor but most guys in that position know what they're buying..

When I was getting my security card and badge. The HR lady was a frumpy, middle-aged women. Figured that bitch must really know her shit to beat out the competition of so much younger 'talent'.

And the company food, oh my god. Lunch: fresh Sushi chefs. Brunch break: tiramisu and coffee. Dinner: smoked steak or bbq. Fridays were beer bash + bbq.

I was considering moving and working full time at the place, but they literally expect 60-80hr work weeks. And a small condo near the place was worth 5x of my house. I wonder how they did during covid, because coming into work sick was like a badge of honor, and people would loudly say "don't get too close I have pneumonia"...WTF. Also, its weird having psychopaths as coworkers.

Yeah there's a reason for that.. most twenty somethings experiencing their first blow up need something of a mother figure to talk to and the company needs someone able to judge if the merchandise is permanently damaged from it. Most of those guys would never trust one of the younger women in that situation and you probably know why.

The food and amenities are phenomenal just like they used to be at places like Google when they were still trying to get and retain talent. Dangerhairs are happy enough to be able to say they work there so there's no real need for it anymore..

Not sure how they handled covid, we did WFH without too much trouble.. expensive to get their houses wired tho

Who the fuck writes their own database system rather than use something from oracle/MS?

Probably someone who wants to keep proprietary data proprietary and knows that Oracle and MS are notorious data snoopers. If you've found an edge, you're probably going to want to keep it.

 

[Otterly]

I have a few, if you’re still around, and not too hungover?

I'll talk inflation in a separate post.

In the past 10 days, I've had to deal with the following headaches (presented in no particular order)

-GME or rather its effects. Most of my clients know that if you see your grandchildren a couple of times a year and they spend their entire visit telling you what stocks to buy, it's probably a good time to get out. This was expected and the easiest concern to alleviate. What was unexpected was them being shown the Petterfy interview. He has caused a myriad of problems and not only for us. I wish no harm upon the man (I actually used to look up to him) as he just got greedy (almost everyone does) and simply misspoke, and this is NOT a threat, but I fully expect to read his obit before the year is out.

-The biggest planned play for the year was supposed to be in physical metal. It was going to hit all bases: flight to safety, inflation hedge, Basel3. First had to jump through a lot of regulatory hoops and get client permission, which we did. Then we had to take necessary preparations for things like transport, assessment, storage, security, insurance etc. Target allocation based on market conditions. Then had to inform clients that not only did our target allocation more than triple, but also that we couldn't get delivery on even 5% of our original target. There was some chatter recently about COMEX selling contracts for silver that were called for delivery to JPM, who promptly cancelled them. I thought it was fearmongering but unfortunately it seems to be true.

-Crypto flash crash

-Look at this graph: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/m1
If your first takeaway is 'graph go up', well at least you have one functioning eye. If the first thing you noticed was the word DISCONTINUED, you might understand why this gave analysts and asset managers around the world a proverbial heart attack. Currently there's a link with an alternative time series but for the first couple of hours, that link wasn't there and the implication was that the Fed was signaling that it either wasnt willing or able to report the amount of dollars in circulation. Now you can worry about the graph. The Fed says it's just money moving from M2 to M1 and while that could be true, this will have gigantic consequences whether it's true or not.

-Powell's last two speeches where he used a lot of words to say nothing at all

There's more but these were the main causes of the headaches of the past two weeks.

I could go on and on about this and may expand on it if you're interested and I can find the time.

EDIT: to add to these professional headaches, personal matters had to be attended to as well. We (meaning my family) are moving. For tax purposes.

Ha. Saw that graph the other week and raised an eyebrow. What’s this going to do to other currencies? How quickly does inflation ripple out from the USA to currencies like the SEK and GBP?

The only class we don't have any major exposure to currently is crypto.

Can I ask why? Conscious choice or inertia? Do you think that will change?
How do you see crypto in particular changing over the next couple of cycles? Will institutional money flow in? Will that take some of the volatility out?

other questions for schizo fun; breaking out the tinfoil in a big way:
Do you know who the seven customers of Melvin capital are? Funds or individuals?
is the GME short pushback a proxy war in revenge for Melvin trying to take out Tesla, or a proxy war between the big boys?

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE]

However, if you're a women, to get an internship at a HF, just be attractive. I am not joking. My jaw dropped on my first day. Literally every women was a 10.

Damn. Wolf of Wall Street wasn't kidding.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

I have a few, if you’re still around, and not too hungover?

Ha. Saw that graph the other week and raised an eyebrow. What’s this going to do to other currencies? How quickly does inflation ripple out from the USA to currencies like the SEK and GBP?

Can I ask why? Conscious choice or inertia? Do you think that will change?
How do you see crypto in particular changing over the next couple of cycles? Will institutional money flow in? Will that take some of the volatility out?

other questions for schizo fun; breaking out the tinfoil in a big way:
Do you know who the seven customers of Melvin capital are? Funds or individuals?
is the GME short pushback a proxy war in revenge for Melvin trying to take out Tesla, or a proxy war between the big boys?

All currencies will be affected and it'll ripple out pretty soon. If you were looking for a safe haven, you'd want to look at FX volumes. If you find one with low USD volume, look at secondary exposure (eg say that NOKUSD is only 1% of NOK FX volume; if NOKEUR is 50% of volume and EURUSD accounts for 50% of EUR volume, secondary exposure is 25%). You can take this all the way but there's no point because if this pans out the way I hope it doesn't, everyone will be piling into the same thing at the same time, defeating the purpose of the exercise altogether.

Crypto price movement is driven mainly by BTC and BTC is driven by futures and margin trading, not retail in any significant way. Futures market brought to you by the same guys constantly settling with the SEC for fixing of rates, FX, PMs etc. Grayscale founder would never think of harming Henson's handpuppets and definitely doesn't talk to former coworkers. In some jurisdictions you can buy 1 SPY call, put 100 SPY on the books @strike and tell the public you have it @market while never having the obligation to own the underlying for the low, low price of premium paid. Can buy as much crypto as I want but decided to get out when it flash crashed and sold on the rebound. Already mentioned what I want to see before getting back in upthread. Not sure about actual institutional ownership but also don't care, I make my own decisions.

In re Citadel, customers, owners, all I can say is that the red shield clan, funny hat glowies and chinks are definitely not involved. It's all Kenny G. Hey look, a truck saying 'party v&' just stopped across the street. They probably have free ice cream.

GME probably started as a small feud, but now sharks are eating sharks, retail is buying massively and there's probably some foreign gov involvement as well. I can't tell who's jewing who anymore but it's a lot of fun for all involved. Until the music stops.

 

[cantankerous jackalope]

Haha I didn't forget about you.

Do the call play, as long as you have the collateral, don't need it for the time you're planning to hold them and aren't the one writing them. You'll probably do well on them. Don't blame me if they expire worthless (they probably won't but you never know).

Thank you king

 

[Simple Moving Average]

If there's any further questions, post them. I'll be leaving in a few days and probably won't be back here for the foreseeable future.

 

[Gay_Frog]

Any recommendations for learning about economy/accountability just the basics for someone outside of academia.

 

[Nu11ptr]

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

 

[Cool Dog]

Now that biden is giving out more money and probably printing it too how bad you think the dollar inflation will be? should I move my savings to euros or what? whats the most 'safe' currency now in terms of inflation?

Also I heard uranium bonds are better than investing in gold, whats your take on that? I could see the potential if there was a new nuclear powerplant boom like 60 years ago but wheres the demand now?

To be fair internet autists told me to buy bitcoin in 2013. I told them it was monopoly money with no real use since it can't be traded for anything outside of shady sites on the internet.

Same but in 2009 when it was worth less than pennies, FML

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Any recommendations for learning about economy/accountability just the basics for someone outside of academia.

In the current climate, MMT is king. Right up until it isn't.

I'm not a trained economist but am familiar with the works of Adam Smith, Joseph Schumpeter and Léon Walras. There are many others but I believe these have laid pretty solid foundations. They are not easy reads.

If by accountability you mean accounting, any old textbook will do. For investment, start with the works of Graham, Lynch and Fisher. For speculation, with Lefevre and Carret. Many other good works exist but without knowing your style I can't recommend you anything useful.

Now that biden is giving out more money and probably printing it too how bad you think the dollar inflation will be? should I move my savings to euros or what? whats the most 'safe' currency now in terms of inflation?

Also I heard uranium bonds are better than investing in gold, whats your take on that? I could see the potential if there was a new nuclear powerplant boom like 60 years ago but wheres the demand now?

Same but in 2009 when it was worth less than pennies, FML

I am not sure about the extent of inflation to be expected but am worried it will be bad. For your question regarding currency, see my reply to @Otterly. You could also compare CB gold holdings with currency issued and could extend the analysis to their FX reserves and their holdings but this also makes no sense, since it amounts to buying gold with extra steps. I did not plan to buy significant amounts of it for its shininess.

Uranium is useful and expensive yes, but if push comes to shove (and I hope it does not), it will not be very easy to use in trade with others due to lack of recognizability and general aura of scariness. In that situation, paper contracts' main use will be lighting a fire.

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

13. دولة داخل دولة. Mή οἶδα οὐδέ οἴομαι εἰδέναι. Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muß man schweigen. 日本語 分からない.

 

[Cool Dog]

I am not sure about the extent of inflation to be expected but am worried it will be bad. For your question regarding currency, see my reply to @Otterly.

So norway krone? why its safe? I remember people saying the HK dollar was very inflation-resistant but now that choyna is about to anschluss them I'm not gonna bet on that. What about the swiss franc? or the singapore dollar?

You could also compare CB gold holdings with currency issued and could extend the analysis to their FX reserves and their holdings but this also makes no sense, since it amounts to buying gold with extra steps. I did not plan to buy significant amounts of it for its shininess.

You saying most gold paper holdings are fake? so should I buy physical gold instead?

Uranium is useful and expensive yes, but if push comes to shove (and I hope it does not), it will not be very easy to use in trade with others due to lack of recognizability and general aura of scariness. In that situation, paper contracts' main use will be lighting a fire.

Well crap, that was my plan B, would you recommend any other metals? I remember people mentioning this stuff that was even rarer than platinum, tons of industrial use too so its not just expensive because theres little of it

Anyway, would be putting everything on an index like the S&P or dow protect me from inflation or I'm gonna get rekt even more? blue chips? packed ramen? I would buy bullets but I'm not in 'merica

 

[Otterly]

So norway krone? why its safe?

Norway have a sovreign wealth fund, becasue unlike the Uk, they didn’t spunk the 1970s North Sea oil wealth up the wall. They have enough actual cash in the piggy bank to give everyone in the country several million dollar equivalent or to cover all national expenses for something like 7 years. So maybe they’re less in hock to globohomo ?

 

[Erika Furudo]

Gold or silver? UK has a VAT of 20% on silver, if PM value is expected to increase it would need to be by a fuckton for silver to be worthwhile imo.

 

[Cool Dog]

Norway have a sovreign wealth fund, becasue unlike the Uk, they didn’t spunk the 1970s North Sea oil wealth up the wall. They have enough actual cash in the piggy bank to give everyone in the country several million dollar equivalent or to cover all national expenses for something like 7 years. So maybe they’re less in hock to globohomo ?

Just 7 years? for a population of 5.5 million? dont sound like a lot of money but alright, got an inflation chart for the krone? and what are the odds that during such a crisis of the dollar they will print more to not lose competitiveness? after all if the krone goes up then norge labor and costs would be higher than other euro countries, companies might leave

Its basically what happened here in argentina during the 90's when the peso was 1:1 with the dollar, basically every other south american country had way lower wages than us so many companies left. 10 years later we went through an economic collapse, to tbh I doubt norway will since they are not as fucking corrupt and retarded as we are

Gold or silver? UK has a VAT of 20% on silver, if PM value is expected to increase it would need to be by a fuckton for silver to be worthwhile imo.

You mean silver bonds?