Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Sexual Chocolate]

This is not Grozny, and its not Syria. The level of delusion among the pro russian side right now is amazing. After everything that has gone done, the Ukrainian national army is LARGER now then it was at the start of the war. At the end of the day its a minor city with a steel plant. The fact that its still holding for now is a miracle in and of itself. At a strategic level taking Mariople does not give Russia any definitive advantage beyond freeing up the forced used to pacify it, but that is a moot point as Ukraine has used the time to fortify its front. The Donetsk and Luhansk lines have been largely unmoved in Eastern Ukraine, and all the time wasted in Mariople has been used to fortify them. There is also no way at this stage Ukraine will agree to end the war unless Russia gives it back.

Why should they? Three Combined Arms Armies have been routed in the north, while the active force of the Ukrainian Army has increased in size. Both in manpower, and available equipment. Not decreased. Worse for Russia, there are reports they are running out of Aviation fuel. Which means the Russian Air Force is going to be in the same bind as the Japanese and German Air Forces in 1945. Lots of equipment. No gas.

When I said Russia had 30 days to win this war, I meant it. Now they have 30 days to END the war. If they don't by May the Russian Air Force is going to be out of fuel, the Russian Navy out of Ammunition, and the Russian Army three sheets to wind with half its deployable force still on the trains from Siberia and the Caucauses while their front line forces will be exhausted and running out of supplies. The invasion of Ukraine has failed, and I am seeing little effort by Putin to try and salvage the situation by mobilizing Russias superior numbers. There must not be political will for it. Which is bad, because if Ukraine refuses to accept his terms the war goes on, and by June Russia will be facing defeat.

Idk, I think the war was a dumb move to begin with. However, Ukraine's latest negotiating position (apparently, who knows with any of this shit?) is that they're open to:

* Recognizing Donbass and Crimea as independent/Russian territories
* Officially withdrawing its Nato application, and giving Russia a veto over joint exercises with Nato (i.e. no I Can't Believe It's Not Nato status for them)
* Becoming officially neutral

This is more or less what Russia said it wanted, and don't sound like the kind of concessions the winning side offers to end a war.

Ukraine handing out lots of guns and MANPADs to anybody fit enough to carry them doesn't really mean anything unless they're able to mount a successful counteroffensive (doubt) or the evil Rooskies were hoping to seize Kev and/or territories in the West (double doubt).

The most likely end to this war currently looks like a smaller Ukraine with a similar political status to Finland, which every talking head in the Western media will announce is a terrible, crushing defeat for Putler and his ruthless Siberian goons. None of the bullshit about Russians running out of basic supplies, shooting themselves with Ukrainian bullets, publicly executing local officials, blowing up Chernobyl, firing chemical weapons at civilians, or being chased away by heroic Ukie freedom fighters and their Redditor shock troops has yet come true, and probably won't come true.

 

[Die Dunkle Maus]

My warfare experience is limited to Risk, Hearts of Iron, and a bad week in New Jersey. I don't know who to believe or who is winning, my guess would be Russia.

I would very much enjoy a source that doesn't depend on videos I can't verify out of ignorance or opinion pieces about Ukraine marching to Moscow and other rampant stupidity. The better the source, the less time I will spend here. EVERYBODY WINS.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

My warfare experience is limited to Risk, Hearts of Iron, and a bad week in New Jersey. I don't know who to believe or who is winning, my guess would be Russia.

I would very much enjoy a source that doesn't depend on videos I can't verify out of ignorance or opinion pieces about Ukraine marching to Moscow and other rampant stupidity. The better the source, the less time I will spend here. EVERYBODY WINS.

There's only one winner in this war, and that's the sales department and shareholders of Raytheon.

 

[Sneed Weed]

It's also loud as fuck. Was out camping in the mountains and an F-18 and A-6 came through the valley I was in, chasing each other. I was sitting at the top of the ridgeline looking down at them, and holy mother of god. It was one of those moments where your freedom boner sprouts an American flag. I should probably have that checked out by a doctor.

Fighting in Bradleys around the King Dome was peak nostalgia for me, visited it a bunch as a kid. It's an amazing game and they need to remaster it, ASAP.

I have seen much worse openly posted on Reddit and Twitter. They didn't even bother to warn me the sons of bitches. Mother of God would someone just nuke Reddit!

This happened on Twitter today:
View attachment 3123745
Also:
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https://twitter.com/BMI_Bund/status/1508443796802965504

View attachment 3123748

https://twitter.com/GermanyinUSA/status/1508552762296082432

Assholes are still buying and using Russian oil for gasoline and LNG for heating, but banning their citizens from wearing anything with a Z on it, or posting a Z online and talking about Russia winning. I did my duty, posted a Z to both accounts and told them go fuck themselves. I hate the fucking globalist Germans so much, I am actively hoping World War III kicks off.

...I am joining up with any country that opposes them so fast, that I will give myself a major case of whiplash.

Banning anything with a Z? They're fucced if they're ZLaner fans

 

[mindlessobserver]

Idk, I think the war was a dumb move to begin with. However, Ukraine's latest negotiating position (apparently, who knows with any of this shit?) is that they're open to:

* Recognizing Donbass and Crimea as independent/Russian territories
* Officially withdrawing its Nato application, and giving Russia a veto over joint exercises with Nato (i.e. no I Can't Believe It's Not Nato status for them)
* Becoming officially neutral

This is more or less what Russia said it wanted, and don't sound like the kind of concessions the winning side offers to end a war.

Ukraine handing out lots of guns and MANPADs to anybody fit enough to carry them doesn't really mean anything unless they're able to mount a successful counteroffensive (doubt) or the evil Rooskies were hoping to seize Kev and/or territories in the West (double doubt).

The most likely end to this war currently looks like a smaller Ukraine with a similar political status to Finland, which every talking head in the Western media will announce is a terrible, crushing defeat for Putler and his ruthless Siberian goons. None of the bullshit about Russians running out of basic supplies, shooting themselves with Ukrainian bullets, publicly executing local officials, blowing up Chernobyl, firing chemical weapons at civilians, or being chased away by heroic Ukie freedom fighters and their Redditor shock troops has yet come true, and probably won't come true.

The real caveat of the Ukrainian offer though is no land bridge to Crimea. Zelensky basically said he is willing to recognize the 2014 borders, and that Russia must return everything it gained in the 2022 invasion. No way Putin could spin that into a win. He'll have to go back to the Duma and say he squandered Russia's national pride, thousands of its sons, and got them sanctioned all the way to the 7th circle of hell, in exchange for Ukraine "officially" recognizing the territory they held prior to the war.

That is why Putin said he would "thrash" Zelensky. If he agreed to those terms, Ukraine officially becomes a country to Russia, and the entire shit show has been for nothing, other then the "not country" magnanimously agreeing to cede territory it didn't have in the first place. This war is going to go on. Putin cannot agree to those terms.

 

[NynchLiggers]

Pretty good! Lets do a recap of all my neg rated predictions from a month ago.

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11281416

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11281595

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11282260

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11282500

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11288004

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11303552

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-1.107023/post-11311724

Meh. Even western military experts unironically thought vatniks would take Kyeef in 72 hours. But the part about them running out of fuel or something is
And Mariupol is not a minor city.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

So no clue if this is true or not, but God damn if I don't hope it is real.

 

[JosephStalin]

Giant Communist Death Robot
View attachment 3126683

1. Improve logistics, starting with many, many more trucks/drivers/maintainers.
2. Improve secure communications.
3. Develop a noncommissioned officer corps worthy of the name.

 

[kuuu]

My warfare experience is limited to Risk, Hearts of Iron, and a bad week in New Jersey. I don't know who to believe or who is winning, my guess would be Russia.

I would very much enjoy a source that doesn't depend on videos I can't verify out of ignorance or opinion pieces about Ukraine marching to Moscow and other rampant stupidity. The better the source, the less time I will spend here. EVERYBODY WINS.

You will not get that. What you get is blatant Ukrainian lies and Russian lies by omission. And you get a spectrum from anywhere else. Pick your poison.
I don't understand armchair generals being so cock sure about either side winning or losing.

I agree with "Russia is probably winning" sentiment just due to personal bias being a Russian and being able to multiply 2+2. Russia has bigger army. Not much else.

 

[mindlessobserver]

You will not get that. What you get is blatant Ukrainian lies and Russian lies by omission. And you get a spectrum from anywhere else. Pick your poison.
I don't understand armchair generals being so cock sure about either side winning or losing.

I agree with "Russia is probably winning" sentiment just due to personal bias being a Russian and being able to multiply 2+2. Russia has bigger army. Not much else.

Russia "winning" also depends entirely on just what Russia's victory conditions are. Part of the problem since this started is nobody actually know what Putin means when he says he wants to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. it sounds good in the press, but when you are actually at the table and trying to hammer out a treaty to take to the UN to be approved, you actually need specific terms.

Russia can make this "illegal" invasion "legal" if they can get Ukraine to sign a treaty. At which point western screeching and international criminal court rulings are mooted. Unfortunately the consistent word out from Kiev has been they actually don't know what Putin wants, so they can only operate on the basis of what Ukraine does NOT want. Which at the moment is to not be invaded and forced to give up territory.

 

[The Other Baldwin]

Shower thought:

They said vaccines would have no side effects.
Then why has everybody in the world gone bugfuck insane?

Anecdotal: My neighbors kid just destroyed her house. I mean....rekt. Bunch of cops showed up. No idea why. I don't live in some inner city hellhole. Her kids were pretty spergy to start off with but not violent. The kids are teenagers and wear masks walking home from school, they are vaxxed for sure. Girls too. Wild shit.

>tfw you and your literal prisoner buddies will never get to commit war crimes in the desert.View attachment 3125015

Turns out when you kill off the entirety of a nations fighting men in the 1940s, you get autists like the Germans and Japanese as the leftovers. Then one of them discovers computers, makes videogames, and writes the shittiest plotlines ever.

Sum more Lukashenko edits talking about Ukraine preparing missiles and stuff:
View attachment 3125144
View attachment 3125145

Top Kek. Many laughs.

View attachment 3125221

U.S. training Ukrainian troops in Poland, Biden seems to reveal​

"President Joe Biden appeared to reveal that the U.S. is training Ukrainian forces in Poland — stating for the first time since the war began that American troops are actively teaching Ukrainians to fight and kill Russians."

On March 22, Jake Sullivan denied that Americans were “currently” training Ukrainians.
"On the question of U.S. troops, we do not have U.S. troops currently training Ukrainians. We do not have U.S. troops on the territory of Ukraine. We do, of course, have U.S. troops defending NATO territory, providing reassurance to our Allies, deterring Russian aggression. "

25th amendment. I will take my chances with the Camela-toe, she doesn't work out, convention of states or Revolution. LET'S GO!

7.3% inflation? Seems quite low, if anything they fudge their numbers just like America does. Shadowstats puts America's inflation rate at around double what is reported by the government, so >14%. I image most of the Rothschild dollar-derivative west is in the same debased boat.

Anyone who lives here can tell you that inflation is way, way higher than 7%. Our government monkey fucked the numbers on inflation and the CPI. I'd say 15-30% is accurate depending on what you are looking to buy. Turns out printing money like a coked out idiot doesn't fix problems.

You know what's really gay?

I wouldn't click play on that video for all of Putin's Rubles.

DPR troops use an ATGM to wreck a supposed Ukrainian stronghold (link)

View attachment 3126295

I am liking this new approach the DPR is taking to recording ATGM attacks. The excitement they have once the munition hits is purely Russian.

But now I have a different thought. I think the current push through the MSMs is for all the NATO/globohomo country NPCs getting their own economies assraped by the effects of the sanctions being put on Russia. Sort of a "Just two more weeks to flatten the curve" type shit. Like "Don't worry, Russia is about to lose, then our economy is going to be great!". Since even they know that anybody, even NPCs, can only really get whipped up into ultra-fervor when it affects them personally. That's why COVID was such an effective push, using people's fear of their own mortality to make them do whatever you tell them to. The Ukraine situation just isn't as effective an angle to push.

It's not just the sanctions on Russia. It is the sanctions on themselves. They are assraping the oil industry, driving up the prices of everything, and basically fucking up the system. The war is just another tool in the toolbox to them. It's the Great Soft Reset that they couldn't get done with Covid.

Chechens being Chechens - Clearing a building in Rubizhne, Luhansk.

I hate Muslims. I mean really - fucking - hate them. But these guys are fighting a war with the best gear, laughing their asses off. I kind of dig it. I know what Putin is doing to them, they probably know what Putin is doing to them....and they are still laughing about it. It's hysterical and highly entertaining.

My warfare experience is limited to Risk, Hearts of Iron, and a bad week in New Jersey. I don't know who to believe or who is winning, my guess would be Russia.

I would very much enjoy a source that doesn't depend on videos I can't verify out of ignorance or opinion pieces about Ukraine marching to Moscow and other rampant stupidity. The better the source, the less time I will spend here. EVERYBODY WINS.

That is not how this thread, or any other thread on the farms works. Get your information and make up your own mind. Sift through the bullshit to find it, or take part. Your choice, faggot. Also, New Jersey is a warzone, and thank you for your service.

 

[kuuu]

Russia "winning" also depends entirely on just what Russia's victory conditions are. Part of the problem since this started is nobody actually know what Putin means when he says he wants to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. it sounds good in the press, but when you are actually at the table and trying to hammer out a treaty to take to the UN to be approved, you actually need specific terms.

Russia can make this "illegal" invasion "legal" if they can get Ukraine to sign a treaty. At which point western screeching and international criminal court rulings are mooted. Unfortunately the consistent word out from Kiev has been they actually don't know what Putin wants, so they can only operate on the basis of what Ukraine does NOT want. Which at the moment is to not be invaded and forced to give up territory.

Hell if I know but think Georgia. I would think Russians would be ok with similar results.
With added clauses akin to what we have in Russian laws against glorifying Nazism and limiting certain classes of weaponry/amount of troops they can have.

 

[cistendered]

The mother of all copes from US intel - "Doesn't our enemy know how bad he's losing? Hasn't he read our reports saying what a failure this operation has been? Doesn't he know what the (((international community))) is saying behind his back?". I think the only explanation for rhetoric this dumb is that the Ukrainians are getting severely bloodied, or are about to, and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

View attachment 3127478
The mother of all copes from US intel - "Doesn't our enemy know how bad he's losing? Hasn't he read our reports saying what a failure this operation has been? Doesn't he know what the (((international community))) is saying behind his back?". I think the only explanation for rhetoric this dumb is that the Ukrainians are getting severely bloodied, or are about to, and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

There may be a grain of truth to it to be honest. Any time you have as much corruption as you do in Russia, there's going to be people lying to cover their asses.

 

[RA-5C Vigilante]

I hope this war ends so I can go to Ukraine, get as many military surplus uniforms and helmets I can and then sell them back at a profit

 

[mindlessobserver]

Hell if I know but think Georgia. I would think Russians would be ok with similar results.
With added clauses akin to what we have in Russian laws against glorifying Nazism and limiting certain classes of weaponry/amount of troops they can have.

The former is doable in that its unenforceable. The later can't be. Ukraine is "winning" at the moment. Why would Ukraine agree to demilitarize when this war has essentially created one of the best Armies on the European continent? Its not like the Genie can be put back in the bottle. Ukraine has hundreds of thousands of trained personnel, thanks to the vast majority of them doing it for free.

 

[Duke Nukem]

You will not get that. What you get is blatant Ukrainian lies and Russian lies by omission. And you get a spectrum from anywhere else. Pick your poison.
I don't understand armchair generals being so cock sure about either side winning or losing.

I agree with "Russia is probably winning" sentiment just due to personal bias being a Russian and being able to multiply 2+2. Russia has bigger army. Not much else.

The British had a large army in the 1770s as well, it's a factor but not necessarily the thing that will determine the outcome of the war.

1. Improve logistics, starting with many, many more trucks/drivers/maintainers.
2. Improve secure communications.
3. Develop a noncommissioned officer corps worthy of the name.

Whatever happens, for their sake hopefully the Russian military learns something from this. Logistics is their biggest problem far and away. And for Christ's sake, don't let soldiers on either side carry cell phones to the front lines!

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

I hope this war ends so I can go to Ukraine, get as many military surplus uniforms and helmets I can and then sell them back at a profit

I'm just hoping we get boatloads of sweet sweet ak parts kits, and imports of certain firearms....

 

[Duke Nukem]

I'm just hoping we get boatloads of sweet sweet ak parts kits, and imports of certain firearms....

I would be down for some Ukrainian Kalashnikovs personally, or even an AK-12 or two.

 

[JosephStalin]

You will not get that. What you get is blatant Ukrainian lies and Russian lies by omission. And you get a spectrum from anywhere else. Pick your poison.
I don't understand armchair generals being so cock sure about either side winning or losing.

I agree with "Russia is probably winning" sentiment just due to personal bias being a Russian and being able to multiply 2+2. Russia has bigger army. Not much else.

Iraq had a "bigger army" in 1991. We saw what happened.

Russia has largely squandered their "bigger army", while the Ukrainians are using their smaller army far more effectively than anyone imagined.

Size of an army doesn't mean much when the logistics are poor, the strategy unworkable and air superiority sporadic. War today is a combined-arms operation, actually been that way for many years now. Still don't understand how Russia could have pissed away their VDV the way they did.

Russia's "bigger army" has been severely hamstrung by the old Russian/Soviet practice of denying noncommissioned officers, junior officers, and field grade officers the ability to use initiative to react with unexpected situations on the battlefield. Instead, the Russians have been forced to send generals down to Ukraine to personally ensure operations are carried out. These generals are up front, deciding what to do when subordinate units run into unexpected situations. They are acting as company and battalion commanders. Then these flag officers and colonels end up getting killed. From what little I know believe one Ukrainian general has been killed. We see the Ukes using initiative at all levels, keeping the Russians off balance. Would say they're using the US/NATO provided training rather well.

If you will, imagine Gulliver being held down by a myriad of small ropes. Russia's situation in the Ukraine is not unlike that of Gulliver.

And if Russia is having this much trouble conventionally against Ukraine, simply cannot see them defeating NATO forces conventionally. NATO trains a lot together, shares lessons learned/best practices among themselves. Their logistics are a quantum leap better.

Seriously, ol' Vlad needs to end this war. The conventional disparities between his army and Ukraine, much less NATO, grow every day.